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ULL 10/31 - 11/1 Obvs Thread


burgertime

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Congrats to those getting in on an early snow.  Good call from Lookout last night with pinpointing the specific area.

 

Here's a lone thunderbolt in upstate SC...based on the scale, it says this one occurred roughly 2 hours ago.  Thought there would be more of this.

 

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Thanks! I tell you, considering how complicated this system is (as with all upper lows) and how much climatology  argued against it, I have to say I'm really happy with the way it turned out from a expectations  perspective. Could not be happier with the area effected. Only thing I regret is not mentioning more in the way of  actual accumulations.  I personally thought to myself   there was a decent shot to get an inch or two somewhere in south carolina in one or two isolated spots  but i didn't want to be too bullish despite all the evidence pointing toward it..because it is november 1st after all. 

 

This was a once in a lifetime, and longer, system though. To think some of us witnessed something that has not been recorded and will not occur again in our lifetime, most likely anyway, is pretty amazing. I might have only got a little light snow and flurries but that feeling of "wow" is worth a lot more.

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I'll have to hand it to the NAM, it nailed this storm for the upstate from 48 hours out.  It consistently showed the area from Greenville  down through laurens/newberry getting accumulating snow and it was spot on.  

 

It was also spot on with where it cutoff the heavy precip/snow which turned out to be 10 miles to my east. :axe:

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I'll have to hand it to the NAM, it nailed this storm for the upstate from 48 hours out.  It consistently showed the area from Greenville  down through laurens/newberry getting accumulating snow and it was spot on.  

 

It was also spot on with where it cutoff the heavy precip/snow which turned out to be 10 miles to my east. :axe:

Overall I thought the nam and hrrr did very well indeed. Other than the nam being too cold over the nc foothills/piedmont in earlier runs, they both did a really good job imo.The hrrr hardly budged 5 miles in the back edge of precipitation around my neck of the woods for 15 runs in a row. As someone who hates forecast model snow forecasts and never give them much credence, the hrrr did a really good job in the location and amounts over the upstate/midlands consistently from run to run.

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I'll have to hand it to the NAM, it nailed this storm for the upstate from 48 hours out. It consistently showed the area from Greenville down through laurens/newberry getting accumulating snow and it was spot on.

It was also spot on with where it cutoff the heavy precip/snow which turned out to be 10 miles to my east. :axe:

Yes it did. It continues to do well with ULL. It was sad to see Oconee dry for this event on the models but was dead on.

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Overall I thought the nam and hrrr did very well indeed. Other than the nam being too cold over the nc foothills/piedmont in earlier runs, they both did a really good job imo.The hrrr hardly budged 5 miles in the back edge of precipitation around my neck of the woods for 15 runs in a row. As someone who hates forecast model snow forecasts and never give them much credence, the hrrr did a really good job in the location and amounts over the upstate/midlands consistently from run to run.

Yes it did and so did you  :wub:  I have had a dusting 3 times and it is still snowing. Just 5 miles up the road there is about 3+ inches on the ground  :lol:    I'm impressed   ^_^

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Wow, to my Midlands people.. I busted horribly.  I really thought it'd be the "typical" situation and a brief rain snow mix/graupel event as the ULL passed.

 

Boy I was wrong.  Southern Lexington, towards Saluda SC are absolutely wrecked.  I was out and about.. power was out everywhere.  The roads were dangerous even into downtown Lexington proper.

 

Usually I bust in a bad way (not getting snow when expecting).  This time around myself, local weather guys, friends, everyone was absolutely taken by surprise.

 

I can't believe there are areas of 4-5" in Southern Lexington county on November 1st.

 

Lookout, you nailed it man!

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