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ULL 10/31 - 11/1 Obvs Thread


burgertime

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The thing is, I expected a changeover in the heavier areas of precip..i did not expect to see all snow here at 40 degrees with light returns over head. i mean it's coming down really good out there now..made more impressive by the 20 to 25mph winds. It's quite a site in the yard light and  shining my spotlight out there.

 

AudgF9f.gif

 

Well to be fair you are in the base of the coldest 850-hPa temperatures, so it would have been easier for your area to change over with lower rates. GSP is really on the leading edge of the colder 850-hPa temperatures. Looking at the correlation-coefficient you can actually see the changeover is taking place SW-NE since th colder 850-hPa temperatures are to the southwest (partially because some of the coldest CAA is blocked by the Appalachians in NC and VA (and also that the secondary cyclone formation in the lee of the Apps has resulted in little temperature advection further north and east of the low-level cyclone).  

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.GSP.N0C.20141101.812.02

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As hard as it is to believe, current conditions in Saluda., NC... 32.6 degrees, moderate snow and thunder. Winds 15 to 20 mph. Almost 2 inches now and still coming.... While I was typing another flash and thunder. Deformation band? Anyone?

Added, with the low to our south radar seems to show upslope from the south east. Very unusual direction. Somebody with more knowledge please chime in... Don't want to Weenie out on my first post of the season...

Nice!

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AudgF9f.gif

 

Well to be fair you are in the base of the coldest 850-hPa temperatures, so it would have been easier for your area to change over with lower rates. GSP is really on the leading edge of the colder 850-hPa temperatures. Looking at the correlation-coefficient you can actually see the changeover is taking place SW-NE since th colder 850-hPa temperatures are to the southwest (partially because some of the coldest CAA is blocked by the Appalachians in NC and VA (and also that the secondary cyclone formation in the lee of the Apps has resulted in little temperature advection further north and east of the low-level cyclone).  

 

 

This is true. It doesn't hurt either than 700mb to 500mb temps are at rock bottom here too. When dealing with 850s that aren't just barely below freezing,  the 0c 925mb contour works remarkably well though in a lot of cases, depending on temps and dewpoints from 950mb to the surface of course. Dewpoints have dropped enough to help it survive.

 

It's funny though as I usually use that rule for everywhere else and not here because  where I'm at normally physics usually work different somehow lol. Downslope warming in the low levels destroys any hope of snow here.  Been many a time where I would have an overall colder sounding than this with sufficient moisture in the snow growth region and all of that and actually get liquid.

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Very strange to type this on Nov 1, but looks like I'm too far NORTH to get in on any snowfall. LOL. I think I'll just take this as a good sign for the upcoming winter. :P

Currently 41.4 with some light rain.

You are correct! Nice churn going on to the south and not making much of a northward slide

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Now snowing in Greenwood at 33, sigh.  One of these days it will work out, either when I'm out of town or dead, but one of these days lol.  Looks like our chance has ended as returns are lightening up and temp has risen to 37.2.  Ever since the epic bust last winter almost every system has under performed for mby.

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Watching a big blob of red on the radar southwest of me. Now 35F. And the wind is just tearing outside.   

 

Accumulating now in Red bank and the southside of Lake Murray.

I've been watching it too  :lol:  It's just to my north and I believe I just witnessed a few flakes mixing in. The rain in ruining my black construction paper I use for verification  :P 

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