dtk Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The ensemble mean is more defined with areas of 500 mb ridges and troughs after the operational upgrade. But the NOAA article didn't get into anything more about a full ensemble upgrade beyond what was mentioned a few weeks ago. There was no change to the ensemble with this implementation. I'm not sure what would be causing the seemingly "more defined" ensemble mean. The only impact that the current GFS implementation has on the GEFS is through the initial condition for the control. I may have mentioned this elsewhere, but the GEFS upgrade (resolution increased, new IC perturbations, etc) is supposed to be on the schedule for sometime this year. Last I had heard was something like April or May, but I am assuming this may have slipped already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 the "new" gfs is weaker and further east with the potential high impact winter storm this weekend while the euro is west and stronger. let's see which does better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Is there possible cold bias for the long-range portion of the GFS? The 2/4 12z GFS forecasts the following 12z temperatures for NYC: 2/14: -22.9°C (-9°F) 2/16: -26.7°C (-16°F) To put this into perspective, NYC has not had a subzero reading since 1/19/1994 (-2°). NYC's 5 coldest readings are: 1. -15°, 2/9/1934 2. -13°, 12/30/1917 3. -8°, 2/15/1943 4. -7°, 12/31/1917 and 2/8/1934 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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