jacobr57 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Just looking over the 00z GFS op.... maybe the midlands are going to see some flakes. Yea, the 00z GFS looked quite a bit different. But how trustworthy is the GFS this close to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Yea, the 00z GFS looked quite a bit different. But how trustworthy is the GFS this close to the event? I think what stood out to me was the fact the HRR is doing it too... and the local news future-casts with the RPM model. The 12z Euro ens members had over 20 with some kind of frozen falling around KCAE. I am still thinking we won't see anything, but hm. A surprise would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Yeah, the new GFS is all over a heavy rain event here. Looks like close to 1" of rain for the immediate Triad area and 0.25-0.5" for SW NC and NW SC. It's been raining steadily for a couple hours now, too. The GFS also gives inland Maine a big snowstorm. The capes get a lot of rain, which might have been snow if it wasn't early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 This was WLTX's projection for 9am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 This was WLTX's projection for 9am tomorrow. WLTXprojection.png Yikes!!!!!!! Might have to borrow Orangeburg's snowplow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 This was WLTX's projection for 9am tomorrow. WLTXprojection.png Well, that about covers Lookout's prediction imo. Jim Gandy posting that up on Twitter is a big move too. He usually has very little optimism in any kind of Winter weather, especially something like this. I very well could have busted saying CAE wouldn't see anything but graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The 03z HRR already looks like it's going to look pretty good for the midlands.. cold air plunging in a lot better imo. Will update this post with the simulated radar when it comes out and off to bed I go. Laurens, Parts of Newberry, Saluda under heavy returns of the blue color by 7am. Trying to creep into Lexington... zigs back a bit. Doesn't look as good for the central midlands, but meh. It's going to do what it does. Night guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Has CAE ever recorded measurable snow in Nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Has CAE ever recorded measurable snow in Nov? The earliest snowfall on record is listed as November 9th. I don't know if that was measurable or not, though. http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/ClimateData/cli_table_snowfall_columbia.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Has CAE ever recorded measurable snow in Nov? The current record earliest snow is Nov 9, 1913.... IF it snow tomorrow, it would shatter that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The current record earliest snow is Nov 9, 1913.... IF it snow tomorrow, it would shatter that record. Thanks, couldn't find it on noaa. That would indeed be impressive if it happens. If those models are correct looks like rates could be heavy enough for a short lived dusting. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Has CAE ever recorded measurable snow in Nov? It snowed last year on November 12th I believe it was, but I'm not sure it was recorded at CAE, it was on the east and north side of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Thanks, couldn't find it on noaa. That would indeed be impressive if it happens. If those models are correct looks like rates could be heavy enough for a short lived dusting. Amazing! It is indeed. To put things in perspective, the average first snow at Central Park NYC is December 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It snowed last year on November 12th I believe it was, but I'm not sure it was recorded at CAE, it was on the east and north side of town. This is indeed true. We got about a quarter of an inch with that one. i think KCAE recorded a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It is indeed. To put things in perspective, the average first snow at Central Park NYC is December 15. I wonder what the average first snow at CAE is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I wonder what the average first snow at CAE is.... Probably sometime in January. EDIT: According to this interactive map on weather.com, the average first snowfall for CAE is between January 27th-February 5th. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/seasons-first-snow-average-dates-northeast-midwest-south-west-20131002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I wonder what the average first snow at CAE is.... Can't find an average date, but we don't expect to see any snow until the second half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 4am November 1st, pretty heavy snow falling in Greenville, SC. Big pretty flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 4am November 1st, pretty heavy snow falling in Greenville, SC. Big pretty flakes. Pretty incredible, anything sticking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Pretty incredible, anything sticking? Oh yeah! Furman campus got a few inches. Sticking to parking lots even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC645 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014SCZ018-020-021-025>028-011400-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCCORMICK...NEWBERRY...WINNSBORO...EDGEFIELD...JOHNSTON...SALUDA...RIDGE SPRING...WEST COLUMBIA...CAYCE...LEXINGTON...RED BANK...COLUMBIA645 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014...AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERNAND CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS MORNING...A VERY COLD POOL OF AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRALMIDLANDS THIS MORNING THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND AT TIMES BRIEFLYCHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH 9 AM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THISMORNING RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOIL TEMPERATURESARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ISEXPECTED...EXCEPT ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH ASTREES...BUSHES AND RAILINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Never thought I would wake up to snow on the ground in downtown Greenville on November 1st. O o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Radar overlaid on the HRRR 500 MB view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Zoomed in some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Watching the radar and another band is forming to my east. Hopefully it will rotate around because literally 5 miles in every direction has at least a dusting while I am watching random flakes fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Pretry neat to see snow accumulate outside the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Watching the radar and another band is forming to my east. Hopefully it will rotate around because literally 5 miles in every direction has at least a dusting while I am watching random flakes fly It is literally pouring slushballs here. Slushy accumulation on all elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 WIS said no accumulation, but there is 6" of snow in Gilbert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 WIS said no accumulation, but there is 6" of snow in Gilbert.image.jpg Nice! You near Columbia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 That was on their FB page. Sunny in Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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