franklin NCwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Sorry, I deleted that post quickly. Thought it was banter worthly, haha We're thinking about hanging around somewhere between AVL and Boone now that Smokies/US 441 are shutting down at 8 pm (we asked on phone). soco gap is a great upslope spot with easy access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 WSB's snow map. The Catawba-Mars Hill football game has already been moved to Sunday because of the snow. WSBsnow.png Lol now that's funny, pushing a college football game back because of snow?! They should close up their program, that's a disgrace. Travel up to App State and see if they move a game due to snow hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 http://www.beechalpen.com/live_cam/topofthebeech.html it has begun. Dusting at the mtn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 18z RGEM rolling and gives Downtown Asheville 5" by 8am tomorrow. My jaw is on the floor. Looks like deformation zone sets up right over top of mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Precip starting to blossom/expand across the foothills. Should be fun to track at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Dynamic system with thunder in the foothills. Let's go trick-or-treating! Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 NC State guys are at Sugar Mtn right now while we're about to depart. Are we going with October observation thread or is someone creating event observation thread? Either way, that's where my updates will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Sprinkling in Blythewood. Happy Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Started and Obs thread here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44789-ull-1031-111-obvs-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yes they will be Hunker down se peeps as we welcome a touch of winter Edit: A perfect Saturday.......football, fire, food(drink) and discussing a winter system = i will second this lol - just finished dinner and cleaning up and having a glass of wine and saw the updated forecast for mby - winter wx advisory haha i will believe it when i see it in oct (or november 1). nws has maybe an inch or so here. wild halloween BOO. was just thinking whether it was cold enough to warrant cranking up the fireplace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Not that it matters much at this range, but the SREF mean ticked up to 2.53 inches for AVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The 00z NAM is much wetter up in the northwestern Piedmont. Interesting. 0.50-0.75" from hr 6-12. The Hi-Res is wet, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 46 and drizzle. Wind is definitely starting to pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The 00z NAM is much wetter up in the northwestern Piedmont. Interesting. 0.50-0.75" from hr 6-12. The Hi-Res is wet, too. wow this will be painful to watch for me and northeast ga. Sorry to say that nam/hrrr have been stuck on this solution for a while. The composite reflectivity on the hrrr just makes me want to cry lol. Literally get missed by about the width of one county or two tops. Not saying those snow totals are going to be accurate but I do believe there will be snow in the air, maybe even more than just a flake or two, along the savannah river valley over into the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 wow this will be painful to watch for me and northeast ga. Sorry to say that nam/hrrr have been stuck on this solution for a while. The composite reflectivity on the hrrr just makes me want to cry lol. Literally get missed by about the width of one county or two tops. Not saying those snow totals are going to be accurate but I do believe there will be snow in the air, maybe even more than just a flake or two, along the savannah river valley over into the upstate. That's the million dollar question....where will it set up I honestly think it will be further north than what they are showing, but tracking it is half the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 That's the million dollar question....where will it set up I honestly think it will be further north than what they are showing, but tracking it is half the fun I really believe south carolina will be the big winners here outside the mountains. The last 24 hour of model runs really warmed up the low to mid levels over north carolina (even making it into the far northern/northeastern upstate)with waa from the east. So somewhere between the savannah river to gsp to columbia/your neck of the woods will be the winners imho. Although more actual precip might fall northeast of this area, This area has the benefit of the coldest air. Unfortunately for me all the guidance shows it hitting a brick wall at the savannah river. So unless there is a surprise of some sort, you and the rest of the lucky south carolina dogs will get all the treats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 wow this will be painful to watch for me and northeast ga. Sorry to say that nam/hrrr have been stuck on this solution for a while. The composite reflectivity on the hrrr just makes me want to cry lol. Literally get missed by about the width of one county or two tops. Not saying those snow totals are going to be accurate but I do believe there will be snow in the air, maybe even more than just a flake or two, along the savannah river valley over into the upstate. yep, this area has been basically dry for most of the model runs, just a little bit here and there. the winners are just to our left and right it can be painful to watch to say the least. if it does snow really close by maybe time for a quick drive to see early nov snow lol. although even a few flurries here would be nice imby sigh at least it is active out tonight - winds are howling and temps already in the upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I really believe south carolina will be the big winners here outside the mountains. The last 24 hour of model runs really warmed up the low to mid levels over north carolina (even making it into the far northern/northeastern upstate)with waa from the east. So somewhere between the savannah river to gsp to columbia/your neck of the woods will be the winners imho. Although more actual precip might fall northeast of this area, This area has the benefit of the coldest air. Unfortunately for me all the guidance shows it hitting a brick wall at the savannah river. So unless there is a surprise of some sort, you and the rest of the lucky south carolina dogs will get all the treats I really hope you're right about SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Saluda, SC is in the bullseye on the 02z HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Saluda, SC is in the bullseye on the 02z HRRR. what site are you getting the HRRR off? my site is still showing 01z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The RPM model on Channel 2 here was showing a snow bullseye early morning over most of the Midlands of SC. Fowler didn't believe it would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 what site are you getting the HRRR off? my site is still showing 01z Weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The RPM model on Channel 2 here was showing a snow bullseye early morning over most of the Midlands of SC. Fowler didn't believe it would be snow. I don't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Saluda, SC is in the bullseye on the 02z HRRR. How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I really believe south carolina will be the big winners here outside the mountains. The last 24 hour of model runs really warmed up the low to mid levels over north carolina (even making it into the far northern/northeastern upstate)with waa from the east. So somewhere between the savannah river to gsp to columbia/your neck of the woods will be the winners imho. Although more actual precip might fall northeast of this area, This area has the benefit of the coldest air. Unfortunately for me all the guidance shows it hitting a brick wall at the savannah river. So unless there is a surprise of some sort, you and the rest of the lucky south carolina dogs will get all the treats Clinton, Union, Chester, Rock Hill, Lancaster, Cheraw should be the winners, but I've been wrong before.....a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 One thing I noticed with this though as usual with other situations most of the times the models want to drop the ULL too far south. Seems like the last 18-24 all the models have been trending further and further south. Honestly dont know why the models have been trending toward SAV. But just looking at WV Im not quiete sure if that will happen. Somewhere north of Columbia SC. The flow is backing a fair amount the last few frames to the NW. This may take a turn shortly over the next few hours. wow this will be painful to watch for me and northeast ga. Sorry to say that nam/hrrr have been stuck on this solution for a while. The composite reflectivity on the hrrr just makes me want to cry lol. Literally get missed by about the width of one county or two tops. Not saying those snow totals are going to be accurate but I do believe there will be snow in the air, maybe even more than just a flake or two, along the savannah river valley over into the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 How much? Not really looking into "accumulation" since it's going to be too warm, but under the heaviest returns on simulated radar. The HRR is going to keep changing. Trying to figure out exactly what the ULL is going to do is pretty much impossible until it's happening imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Not really looking into "accumulation" since it's going to be too warm, but under the heaviest returns on simulated radar. The HRR is going to keep changing. Trying to figure out exactly what the ULL is going to do is pretty much impossible until it's happening imo. Thank you. Its just fun watching this thing, snow or no snow. Like seeing the rain anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 James Spann is posting some great pictures of snow from North Georgia and Tennessee on his twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Just looking over the 00z GFS op.... maybe the midlands are going to see some flakes. Much wider area... but looks more like a mixed with rain deal for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.