Shawn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Cut off (1 contour) per new Meso analysis page @ 500 over Michigan & Northern Indiana. Euro pretty strong with the ULL. 528 dm for even ATL and a lot of GA as a whole. 534 into CHS... November 1st.. Fwiw, trace amounts of "frozen" through the midlands of SC. I still think it'd be graupel. Looking at surface temps in the mid 30s at lowest through this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Latest 4k NAM shows a 3 looper at 8 AM with 540's to Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The rgem was a bit "slushier" with a little bit of a wider mixed bag for those all around clt and into northern sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Impressive lee side low and convergence there just SE of Charlotte. Wouldn't be surprised to see a snow burst or 2 east of the mtns...Gaffney/Rock Hill/Charlotte/Hickory/Statesville areas. Such a dynamic system that is strengthening as it crosses the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Convective precip on RAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Convective precip on RAP... Yeah, I'm not sure what's up with that. It's only giving Smokies couple of inches, which is doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The RAP is playing fast and loose with those omega values in NW SC at the end of its run. The RAP is really wet in general. Looks like 1"+ QPF for most of the western Piedmont and foothills (but very little in the SW NC mountains). I must assume the vast majority of that in the lowlands (if not all) is rain, though. In any case, the long-range RAP is untrustworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Keep in mind the models seem to underperform IMO the moisture associated with the NW side of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Fwiw, the Bufkit data is not impressive for KCAE for snow per say. 5F above freezing in the BL area... but it looked like the RAP wants to go bonkers with omega in future frames, not quite sure yet. Icing was definitely with the moisture, so still looking like graupel around these parts if anything. Also, from the latest KCAE discussion: HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL TOP-DOWN PRECIP TOOL KEEPS THE CWA IN ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING SOME GRAUPLE TO THE AREA. NO ACCUMS...AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 GSP Update .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENINGCIRCULATION DIVING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THISH5 LOW CENTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS ITDEEPENS FURTHER THIS EVENING AND THEN CROSSES THE EXTREME SRNAPPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THEUPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER QG FORCING WILLRAMP UP RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN BECOME QUITEINTENSE FROM 06Z TO 12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDSOF THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH QUICKLY STARTINGIN THE SMOKIES THIS EVENING...WITH ZERO C 850 MB TEMPS WRAPPINGINTO THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNINGSAT. A STRONG 3 TO 5 PVU SATURATED EQUIVALENT GEOSTROPHICPOTENTIAL VORT LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND DOWNTHE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. COMBINED WITH STEEP 850 TO500 MB LAPSE RATES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INADDITION...WITH AN 850 MB LOW CENTER BOMBING OUT JUST S OFKCLT...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO CREATEA SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF PRECIP OVER THE ERN UPSTATE AND CLT METROAREA. THE RATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TOSNOW AT TIMES DESPITE THE SFC WARM LAYER...UNDER BOTH THEDEFORMATION FORCING AND THE UPPER POT VOT. ALL TOLD...THE MTNWINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS WELL PLACED GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED QPFAND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE LOW TEENS. THE ONLY CHANGE WILLBE TO ADD GRAHAM CO. WILL ALSO POST A SNOW ADVISORY TIER FARTHERTO THE SE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REMAINQUITE UNCERTAIN...AS SNOW COULD MIX IT AT TIMES. THE H5 LOW CENTERWILL TRANSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST QUICKLY THROUGH SATURDAYAFTN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING WILL BE SLOWER TOEXIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 GSP Update .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INADDITION...WITH AN 850 MB LOW CENTER BOMBING OUT JUST S OFKCLT...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO CREATEA SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF PRECIP OVER THE ERN UPSTATE AND CLT METROAREA. THE RATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TOSNOW AT TIMES DESPITE THE SFC WARM LAYER...UNDER BOTH THEDEFORMATION FORCING AND THE UPPER POT VOT. THE H5 LOW CENTERWILL TRANSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST QUICKLY THROUGH SATURDAYAFTN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING WILL BE SLOWER TOEXIT. Verrrry interesting. Looks like they are leaning towards the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Winter Wx Advisory is in effect for NE GA http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ffc&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 WSB's snow map. The Catawba-Mars Hill football game has already been moved to Sunday because of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Latest WPC probabilities: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Here's the new storm total map for WNC from GSP. Hasn't changed much: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 WOW, nam looks even better for nc and into sc. EDIT and at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Winds be brutal as the cold air arrives. This is the HRRR at midnight tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Winds be brutal as the cold air arrives. This is the HRRR at midnight tonight Yes they will be Hunker down se peeps as we welcome a touch of winter Edit: A perfect Saturday.......football, fire, food(drink) and discussing a winter system = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 WOW, nam looks even better for nc and into sc. It has 33 deg there in SC upstate, surrounded by warmer air...showing what can happen if there are convective type rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It has 33 deg there in SC upstate, surrounded by warmer air...showing what can happen if there are convective type rates yep you can see the section in northern sc with the lower temps under the low. EDIT: hires nam highlights how the place to be will be under the heavy returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Snowing at Beech Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Snowing at Beech http://www.beechmountainresort.com/mountain/5506_cam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 WOW, nam looks even better for nc and into sc. Not trying to wish cast but I would expect that deform band to be further NW probably around Shelby or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Snowing at Beech http://www.beechmountainresort.com/mountain/5506_cam.html And accumulating!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 12Z GFS concurs with 12Z NAM with 540 heights at ATL and an even more incredible ~538 at CHS. I'm willing to bet that at least the 538 at CHS won't be repeated this early again in all of our lifetimes. This is just insane!! To support my claim that this is basically a once in a lifetime event (low heights for so early in the season), I looked at 500 mb maps back to 1948 for 10/15-11/5. I didn't feel the need to look at pre-10/15. A 540 at KATL and 538 at CHS during 10/15-11/5 has not occured even once back to 1948! The lowest for KATL has been the following: two at 543 (and these were in early Nov.) followed by 546 and 548. CHS' lowest has been well above 538...at least high 540's. So, this supports my bet that this low a 500 mb ht at CHS and probably even at ATL won't be repeated again on or before 11/1 in our lifetimes. For KATL: - 543 late on 11/2/1966: T of SN/IP early afternoon. It was only in the 30's that afternoon with overcast/windy conditions. The next AM low was 27. - 543 early on 11/5/2010: no SN/IP. It was PC/windy in afternoon with ~50 F. The next AM low was 33. - 546 late on 11/4/1970: no SN/IP. It was sunny and windy in the afternoon with only mid 40's. The next AM low was 33. - 548 early on 10/31/1993: T of SN early afternoon. It was cloudy/windy and only ~40 during the afternoon. The next AM low was 30. - 549 late on 10/19/2011: no SN/IP. It was cloudy/windy and ~50 during the afternoon. The next AM low was 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Not trying to wish cast but I would expect that deform band to be further NW probably around Shelby or so. I would too and not any further south than around Union,Chester,Lancaster in SC. I'm not saying that a small flizzard isn't possible around the CAE area, but I'm not holding my breath for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The GFS and NAM both say my area gets somewhere between .5 and 1.0 of rain and some snow. I'll take that and run with it since we need the rain so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Quickly. I know NC State guys are chasing this storm around that area in additional to us four from UNCA. We're leaving soon, but we're still not sure about our target yet with Newfound Gap closing (rightfully so). We just need to find a good place that's not dangerous, especially with 12-18 inches forecast in couple of locations. Clingmans Dome Road is already closed. Better get on the stick! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Clingmans Dome Road is already closed. Better get on the stick! :-) Sorry, I deleted that post quickly. Thought it was banter worthly, haha We're thinking about hanging around somewhere between AVL and Boone now that Smokies/US 441 are shutting down at 8 pm (we asked on phone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 From Twitter: Expect possibility of following roads closing: Newfound Gap Rd, Foothills Pkwy E + W, Balsam Mtn, and Gatlinburg Bypass Late afternoon & evening 10/31/14, Parkway closing gates in parts of NC expecting winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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