DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 FFC just had an update: .UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. STILLAPPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIAAND HAVE TWEAKED THE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS UPWARD SLIGHTLY COMPARED TOYESTERDAY BUT THESE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO THEHIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...THE SNOWFALLAMOUNTS CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ONCE THE 12ZGUIDANCE IS RECEIVED...WE WILL EVALUATE ANY NEED FOR WINTERWEATHER PRODUCTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Big questions for folks in GA/SC and anyone east of the foothills right now are the following: How cold can it stay/get at the SFC after 6AM? How much moisture will actually get wrung out so to speak with this low? How cold does the ULL actually end up being? All of these bring high bust potential...if you can call getting a dusting or a flizzard a "bust". I'll be thrilled to the core if we just see flakes flying around the air for longer than 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Should have been well-sampled by morning RAOB, so this is probably getting to a more realistic solution. Check out the Hi-RES NAM. AVL and surrounding areas fair well. Just eyeballing it 2-3 inches seems probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Totals on Hi-RES NAM. I would say anything west of Rutherfordton county has a good chance of being mainly all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Check out the Hi-RES NAM. AVL and surrounding areas fair well. Just eyeballing it 2-3 inches seems probable. NAM usually does a good job with Northwest Flow Snow events, so the output looks reasonable to me. Throw in 20-25 knot winds starting just after midnight and continuing through the day...will certainly look and feel more like January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 From NWS Morristown TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Big questions for folks in GA/SC and anyone east of the foothills right now are the following: How cold can it stay/get at the SFC after 6AM? How much moisture will actually get wrung out so to speak with this low? How cold does the ULL actually end up being? All of these bring high bust potential...if you can call getting a dusting or a flizzard a "bust". I'll be thrilled to the core if we just see flakes flying around the air for longer than 5 minutes. hopefully just cold enough lol. took the day off and just got up (which may be good since i may be up late/early sat.). last night for mby was looking cold and windy but less than 20% chance of anything (including liquid). now am up to 40% of rain/snow showers and up to half an inch lmao (believe it when i see it, after all we are still in october haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Good video from Brad P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 And from NWS GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 As luck would have it, I have to pass through at the time of the heavy band. Going from Greenville (which will get nothing due to downslopimg) to a car show at the Cabarrus Arena in my extremely unsafe slammed car on stretched tires. The one day I can't chase to the mountains.... Anyway, high res NAM looks pretty juicy, Burger you might be in the bulls eye for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Totals on Hi-RES NAM. I would say anything west of Rutherfordton county has a good chance of being mainly all snow. Looks like that is showing some snow in Durham. Funny how it stops right at the Durham and Wake County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Looks like that is showing some snow in Durham. Funny how it stops right at the Durham and Wake County line. i think that is precip amts and doesnt distinguish b/t precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 As luck would have it, I have to pass through at the time of the heavy band. Going from Greenville (which will get nothing due to downslopimg) to a car show at the Cabarrus Arena in my extremely unsafe slammed car on stretched tires. The one day I can't chase to the mountains.... Anyway, high res NAM looks pretty juicy, Burger you might be in the bulls eye for once! haha I was going to head there too in the evo but I feel like I need to check out the snow Awd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC Just now · The temperature with Saturday’s storm system has been trending warmer in recent model runs, so wet snow flakes now looking a little less likely on Saturday across the Triad region down to Anson County. The image below shows surface temperature guidance for Greensboro, from the latest runs of a collection of weather models.Still looks like a good chance for a frost or freeze Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 i think that is precip amts and doesnt distinguish b/t precip types. bingo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 gfs looks like rain for everyone outside of the mtns except the extreme upstate in sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 12Z GFS concurs with 12Z NAM with 540 heights at ATL and an even more incredible ~538 at CHS. I'm willing to bet that at least the 538 at CHS won't be repeated this early again in all of our lifetimes. This is just insane!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 For those in the KCAE area, I am still not getting my hopes up for anything outside of a brief bout of graupel at the most. This ULL means business though, and it will be cool (pun intended) to see pass through. 528-534 dm is pretty freaking nuts for Nov 1st in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 RSO STATUS...GOES-E RSO WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 31/1714Z-01/1644Z IN SUPPORT OFMONITORING THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST COAST.KEMPISTY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 RSO STATUS... GOES-E RSO WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 31/1714Z-01/1644Z IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST COAST. KEMPISTY/SDM/NCO/NCEP i just saw this somewhere and was just going to post this here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 RSO STATUS... GOES-E RSO WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 31/1714Z-01/1644Z IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST COAST. KEMPISTY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Can those images be found at the following site when it's in position? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think the NAM is way too cold with the dynamical cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Try this site: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-r_proving_ground.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Tremendous lapse rates with this system, more than 45 degrees per 3200 feet in some cases. 11AM and 2PM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Try this site: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-r_proving_ground.asp Thanks kindly. I'm guessing as JB noted earlier that this low track being even 20-50 miles too far East on the modeling could really catch areas like NY possibly and they want to make sure it's moving where it is forecast to as it develops. Edit: On a side note, looks like we are about to see the cutoff up around Indiana soon on the Meso analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think the NAM is way too cold with the dynamical cooling Yea hard to imagine it being that cold. ULL of 2012 is still on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yea hard to imagine it being that cold. ULL of 2012 is still on my mind. Are you talking about the January 17, 2013 one? Or was the February 19, 2012 storm a ULL, too (I honestly don't remember, even though it was the only snow I saw all season)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I believe it was the one in Jan. We had a heavy snow warning and calls for 4-8 only to get nothing but a cold cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I believe it was the one in Jan. We had a heavy snow warning and calls for 4-8 only to get nothing but a cold cold rain. Yeah, that one was a classic ULL screwjob for most of the board. I remember it was heavy snow here in the Triad while Mt. Airy was still seeing rain (bizarre ULL stuff, ha). It was one of those 3-4" snows which was very, very wet and knocked out power. I think ratios were probably in the 5:1 area with surface temperatures in the 33-34F range. That one was interesting as we had about two days of flooding rains prior to the changeover to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Euro keeps the ULL closed at two contours and keeps it pretty darn cold as well. Lines up well with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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