burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Euro gives .25 to everyone in NC outside of a small blip near the VA border of .50. NAM continues to juice this thing giving pretty much everyone .50 with an inch of QPF from gso to CLT to Kings Mountain. Million Dollar question is how cold will it be for folks outside of the mountains. Giving the energy associated with it I think it's safe to say it over performs on QPF and it's closer to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Is anybody still up that has access to the euro? Euro upped its snow total to 3" for KAVL! 39/50 ensemble members with 2"+. GFS also gives all of Buncombe co. 3" with 4" near downtown and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Latest GFS and NAM4k clown maps @ 2PM Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 GSP says models came in wetter,but warmer outside the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 For us folks away from the mountains I surely would hope that no one is getting disappointed in the fact that it may not snow Saturday morning... I have a feeling that by the time we get to next March, we will be laughing at the idea that some complained that they got missed in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Here's the 4k NAM comparison, the runs are current and from yesterday. Left images are current. Same thing from the GFS below this one. Also, 850 temps are really crashing on the backside of the ULL... that's COLD for this time of year. Wouldn't be surprised to see flurries in the northern Atlanta metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Here's the 4k NAM comparison, the runs are current and from yesterday. Left images are current. Same thing from the GFS below this one. Also, 850 temps are really crashing on the backside of the ULL... that's COLD for this time of year. Wouldn't be surprised to see flurries in the northern Atlanta metro area. nam_compare.jpg gfs_compare.jpg 850_wrap_around.jpg Agreed, the UL cold is directed perfectly toward Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 For once we have the strongest CAA pointed at GA. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a flake or 2 around ATL. And yes I am talking about snow. hahaha New forecast map coming soon. @wxmanchris *btw, I think someone sees 6-10" in the highest elevation, and don't think its Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Climo says that although it is rare to get them as early as 11/1, getting flurries on 11/1 wouldn't be all that far-fetched in ATL as they've gotten flurries four times earlier than that. The last one was 10/31/1993. The other three were all before 1940. I don't have those three's exact dates at this time. I suppose any of the other three could have been IP instead of SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 For once we have the strongest CAA pointed at GA. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a flake or 2 around ATL. And yes I am talking about snow. hahaha New forecast map coming soon. @wxmanchris *btw, I think someone sees 6-10" in the highest elevation, and don't think its Boone.best spot will be the smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Climo says that although it is rare, getting flurries on 11/1 wouldn't be all that far-fetched in ATL as they've gotten flurries four times earlier than that. The last one was 10/31/1993. The other three were all before 1940. I don't have those three's exact dates at this time. I suppose any of the other three could have been IP instead of SN. That wouldn't surprise me either. Maybe some sleet pellets in Metro, I would say thats possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 best spot will be the smokies. I agree, I would say from central and SW NC look like the winners this round. at least as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 5 standard deviations below normal with the upper low as has been mentioned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Strong 850 cold air advection at 8 AM, but even stronger for SC at 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wind chills Saturday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Regarding the 500 mb heights being in the 540 area range from ATL to CHS per the 0Z Euro, I'm willing to bet that this would be the earliest occurrence of that in recorded history (say back to ~1948). The 10/31/1993 heights were only down to ~546 in ATL and ~558 at CHS for comparison. 540 heights or lower even in midwinter in ATL are not exactly common! I'm betting that ~546 is the lowest on record for ATL on 11/1 or earlier . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 RAP is currently kicking off this event at 22z-0z in Smokies with all border peaks getting something on ground by 4z (midnight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 yes Larry, I don't remember a close to or sub 540m H5 look this early in the season. btw, everyone, if interested....map number 2 is now going up on my twitter page. Let me know what you think, and if you want to follow me...please do so. Thanks! edit...posted @wxmanchris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 HRRR kicked off the event for Smokies at 22z-0z as well. Snow quickly piles up few inches there in first couple hours, but rest of border mtns are slower than RAP to start off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Ray's Weather Snowfall Call Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 To show how unusual 540 500 mb heights would be for ATL on 11/1, they never got that low in the entire great cold fall of 1976. It took til late Dec. for them to spike down that low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 12z NAM very cold at it's core out to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 To show how unusual 540 500 mb heights would be for ATL on 11/1, they never got that low in the entire great cold fall of 1976. It took til late Dec. for them to spike down that low! Latest NAM has thickness at 534 around ATL. Very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 9z sref up to 2 1/4 for franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hard to take the NAM too seriously with regards to QPF but if it's right it will be wet fast. Drops 1.5 inches of QPF in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 nam tomorrow morning around 10am. whoever gets under the heavy band will be in for a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 nam tomorrow morning around 10am. whoever gets under the heavy band will be in for a treat. Indeed has me excited. If the band is heavy enough a dusting can't be ruled out from about Shelby to CLT to CAE. Just amazing there is even a chance at that this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Latest NAM has 540 heights in ATL, which is incredible enough for as early as 11/1. But 538 heights at CHS? Holy cow!! We may not see this again in our lifetimes this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Indeed has me excited. If the band is heavy enough a dusting can't be ruled out from about Shelby to CLT to CAE. Just amazing there is even a chance at that this early. yep, i'm headed up to chesterfield cty tomorrow morning to try to see some flakes. i think it will surprise folks for sure, all about the timing and getting under the heavy precip bands under the low. you look good in clt for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 12z NAM very cold at it's core out to 24. Should have been well-sampled by morning RAOB, so this is probably getting to a more realistic solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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