Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wow ok. Thanks for the detailed post. When a system comes through at -5 sigma, you know it's gonna have surprises! I bet the models won't fully capture all of its potential. Certainly seems that wNC is in the crosshairs as the main 5h center goes directly overhead. Should be fairly steep lapse rates as well. Thunder? Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Beat me to it ha! Was just thinking about this. Get that deformation zone to form over us and move east and I would say that you are right on the money HT. Gonna be a big surprise up here for us WNC folks I believe. Its odd to be tracking something that continues to trend better and wetter ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Roughly from Spartanburg to Rock Hill just north of Florence. Darn it..... Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 First DT snow map of the 2014-2015 season... Let the games begin. Glad to see he's fixed Roanoke's location this year. We were 40 miles SW of where we should've been on last year's maps. Good luck to you mountain guys/gals. Waycross is the Rodney Dangerfield of cities. It gets zero respect. Even DT, who extended his map south quite a ways here, unknowingly cut his southern boundary literally within a handful of miles to its north lmao! So, we'll never know if Waycross is going to get flurries. Amazingly enough, Savannah received snow flurries a few years ago in November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 If the band forms early, we will be in business ! I expect flurries atleast, with coating on grass a miracle! I just want to say I saw the earliest flakes on record here! Oh I'd love it Mack, but this just isn't a good set up for upstate. You'll have a slightly better shot than me, being further east, but that dratted dry nose is ever present on every model run. The escarpment always interferes in the winter. This is one time where I can't be terribly disappointed though, just because of how early it is. Maybe even Ceasars Head might see a little though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hey guys here is the snow plume models for Orangeburg... I might have a shot at something... image.jpg Dude stop posting this crap, everyone else has much better support then you. Take those plumes to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hey guys here is the snow plume models for Orangeburg... I might have a shot at something... image.jpg Only 3 of the 23 models on that page are showing snow. The odds aren't very much in your favor this time around. I wouldn't hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Dude stop posting this crap, everyone else has much better support then you. Take those plumes to the banter thread. True though. But ay he is still learning each year that goes by another Brick joins the club. Hey guys here is the snow plume models for Orangeburg... I might have a shot at .07 inches, still better than nothing... image.jpg 1 out of many. The shot of you seeing snow is very very very slim. Maybe rain followed by a break to couple strong gust of wind followed by cloudy patch with flurries followed by clear sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 NAM soundings look good enough for a coating over the foothills and western piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 RAH sounding pretty bullish for the triad, this was from this afternoon too: FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO/TN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING WILL CLOSE OFF AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INVOF THE UPSTATE SC/SOUTHWEST NC BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NC/SC COAST WILL ENSUE BETWEEN 00 TO 12Z SATURDAY...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING-FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP F- GEN RESPONSE IN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND LOCATION. WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE LITTLE TRICK TREATERS DRY...ALTHOUGH RESIDENTS IN THE TRIAD MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IF THEY STAY OUT MUCH AFTER 9PM. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE MORNING. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS UNDERNEATH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND COULD SUPPORT A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE. -CBL FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH... INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP IN THE WRN PIEDMONT... BRISK WINDS... AND A POSSIBLE KILLING FREEZE THIS WEEKEND. OVERVIEW: HIGHLY ANOMALOUS (HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA LATE FRI IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST... TO NEAR AVL BY SAT MORNING... CROSSING SC SAT BEFORE SWINGING NE OFF THE NC COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE OVER SC (NEARLY 180 M IN 12 HRS) BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE AT 100-150 M OVER CENTRAL/SRN NC. AT THE SURFACE... WEAKER PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NC COAST FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE NE AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NC... TRACKING EAST WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE SRN NC COAST THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH LATE SAT. PTYPE AND THUNDER: WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER (MORE REASONABLY SO) WITH THE SKIN AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS... LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE TRIAD FALLING BELOW 1000 FT SAT MORNING... AS THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR FAR NRN AND WRN CWA. AN EXPECTED SATURATED NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER UP TO AROUND 850 MB IS TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH -25C... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTS SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS... HOWEVER A LIGHT DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING HOW INTENSE THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AN INCREDIBLE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW... OTHERWISE ATYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER WEATHER INCLUDING A POTENTIAL LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES... PREDICTED MUCAPE WILL REMAIN LOW AND CONFINED LARGELY TO THE COASTAL AREAS... HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE 100-200 J/KG OVER THE SW/SRN CWA FRI NIGHT... AND WITH EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT THROUGH SAT MORNING COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR... BUT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND ANY RESULTING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES COULD RAISE THE RISK OF A DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 ok, post coming through now. @wxmanchris would love the follows...Shameless plug..lol TY!! I will link it in here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 ok, forecast is up. Fire away..hehehe https://twitter.com/wxmanchris Let me know what yall think, tweet me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Holy hell, the NAM is wet here. Then again, the NAM is always wet. I'm almost itching to reactivate my Weatherbell subscription now. God help me! It's October!! Nice QPF across the Western Piedmont. It makes you wonder... Verbatim, it actually paints a zone of screwage around Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Is anybody else looking at the GFS? It looks much wetter than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Is anybody else looking at the GFS? It looks much wetter than the 18z. Yep GFS coming in much wetter also. Nice strip of .1-.25 from CLT to AVL @hr 36. Gives most of Buncombe Co. 4"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Good luck to you mountain guys/gals. Waycross is the Rodney Dangerfield of cities. It gets zero respect. Even DT, who extended his map south quite a ways here, unknowingly cut his southern boundary literally within a handful of miles to its north lmao! So, we'll never know if Waycross is going to get flurries. Amazingly enough, Savannah received snow flurries a few years ago in November! And parts of the Charleston area actually got measurable snow two days before Thanksgiving. Some places near 1". This storm will be fascinating because of how well it could perform outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 GFS would say zero snow outside of the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Good luck to you mountain guys/gals. Waycross is the Rodney Dangerfield of cities. It gets zero respect. Even DT, who extended his map south quite a ways here, unknowingly cut his southern boundary literally within a handful of miles to its north lmao! So, we'll never know if Waycross is going to get flurries. Amazingly enough, Savannah received snow flurries a few years ago in November! You can immediately spot the forecasters who never lived near the mountains. I would be shocked if these low balled forecasts in the mountains panned out. MRX is gunning for over a foot along the TN and NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Larry, WayGone got good snow in Nov near the end of the war...you know the one in the 1860's. What goes around comes around...if you don't hold your breath. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 GFS would say zero snow outside of the mtns The funny thing is the GFS is starting to line up with the NAM as far as the spine of the apps is concerned. The NAM has a better resolution so it picks up on the microclimates better, or at least the extreme elevation. I wish I could draw a diagram, but imagine that most of the energy of this low (formerly Hurricane Ana) is aloft at 850mb or above. That's about 5000' up. These mountains jut out into the typical 850mb layer for everyone else and beyond, so all of that energy and moisture is going to slam into those mountains. FWIW the 00z NAM is now giving the highest peaks 12-14" and even that doesn't have the resolution to nail down the 6500' peaks which are going to likely get a few more inches than that. The point location for Mt. Leconte is forecasting 10" - 18": http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-83.43409&lat=35.65140#.VFMQ8Mn4ofw That to me is a safe bet for the highest peaks. I hope you guys cash out on something, but outside of Asheville and Boone (and places like that) you may not have much luck. Getting to the top of Leconte on Saturday isn't going to be a walk in the park, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Those in the Midlands, things still don't look very promising outside a possible clap of thunder and graupel as the ULL passes over if the modeled track is right. Don't believe the "snowfall" maps you guys are seeing! 18z GEFS Plumes for KCAE has absolutely all but one member without the white stuff. That one member is nothing either btw. The SREF plumes literally say: 2.25% chance of snow. Only one member has anything. The CMC is all rain with a brief sleet deal in the far Northern counties of SC from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 4km-NAM really slam NC/TN ridges hard, especially around Roan Mountain and Mt. Leconte. Both peaks appears to be 12+ inches on WxBell maps. Not only these peaks, but Mt. Mitchell get into this action big-time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 4km-NAM really slam NC/TN ridges hard, especially around Roan Mountain and Mt. Leconte. Both peaks appears to be 12+ inches on WxBell maps. Do you have a zoomed in photo of the area? The best I can get is with the normal NAM: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=MRX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Do you have a zoomed in photo of the area? The best I can get is with the normal NAM: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=MRX It's about the same zoom and that snow map is very similar to what hi-res got on WxBell. Plus, I can't post paid-site maps onto this forum anyway. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It's about the same zoom and that snow map is very similar to what hi-res got on WxBell. Plus, I can't post paid-site maps onto this forum anyway. Sorry. It's all good. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Is anybody still up that has access to the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Is anybody still up that has access to the euro? It won't be out until like 3 AM since DST hasn't ended yet. I haven't yet renewed my Weatherbell subscription, but I'll probably purchase it in December, so I'll be up for the Euro most nights (I'm usually up until 2 AM or 3 AM, anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It won't be out until like 3 AM since DST hasn't ended yet. I haven't yet renewed my Weatherbell subscription, but I'll probably purchase it in December, so I'll be up for the Euro most nights (I'm usually up until 2 AM or 3 AM, anyways). Oh, interesting. The americanwx site says it's out to 72 hours already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Oh, interesting. The americanwx site says it's out to 72 hours already. Yeah, I was just thinking that it won't get out past 144 hours until closer to 3 AM (and, let's face it, the Euro is best for fantasy storms in the post-hr 144 period), though I guess since we're at such close range, it's closer to 2 AM. Anyways, from the free stuff, it looks like the ULL is stronger and a little SW at hr 48 compared to last night's 00z run (I can't compare it to today's 12z run because it only has 24-hr panels). The ULL goes from southern Indiana at hr 24 to 100+ miles SW of ILM at hr 48. What happens in between is a mystery. FWIW, at hr 48, the 0C 850 mb line runs from about Burlington down to east of Charlotte. I know thicknesses are usually best for ULLs, but I think those are only available on WeatherBell, Accuweather Pro, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 LOL! Atlanta - http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nomogram_ffc.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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