FLweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hope yall have fun. Pictures would be a plus. Might pay for it next winter and the year after but for this to happen 11-1 is a good omen this year. If this thing can overperform in QPF it would make for a really fun morning. Again SFC temps aren't there but seeing flakes on Nov 1...well can't beat that. Honestly that is a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Good to see you HT and thanks! I am also worried about this. The largest trees have yet to even change yet so this could turn into a mess up here! I hope Duke/Progress is ready. This could be a nightmare for Duke Energy for sure. The GSP Metro is also forecasted to get winds up to 55mph in gusts on Sat and that area is also part of the Duke system. Winds could be an issue for the entire Duke Energy area if thins set up just right. Of course it will be much worse in the mountains with heavy snow plus the leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 00z NAM looks faster and stronger than 18z at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 As usual model madness rules and now out to 33 it's not as strong lol we'll see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 First DT snow map of the 2014-2015 season... Let the games begin. Glad to see he's fixed Roanoke's location this year. We were 40 miles SW of where we should've been on last year's maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 My eyes might be deceiving me but at 36 hours it looks like a flizzard in Gastonia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 My eyes might be deceiving me but at 36 hours it looks like a flizzard in Gastonia No your eyes are just fine... Very good shot of breaking a record for earliest recorded snow, even if it's a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 NAM coming in much wetter for WNC. I think Burg is right flizzard for Gastonia. This one is going to be fun, surprises on tap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Goes to two contour closed low at 39 almost looks like a deform band around Cleveland or gaston County. Sorry I'm on my cell so tricky to look at tiny maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 nam shows snow for clt and northern sc thru 12z-18z sat morn. may have to drive up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Whoa mama if it could be cold enough Charlotte may get a dusting. As Hvward said lot wetter on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 KAVL area sounding (00Z NAM) at hour 36. Pretty damn impressive for being so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Whoa mama if it could be cold enough Charlotte may get a dusting. As Hvward said lot wetter on this run. clt gets right under that band sat morning and looks like the money spot. hard not to get excited for you nc folks with the event being within 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Since it's still October I think it's safe to say this run just went BOOM at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 So it is a true story that if the NAM and Euro are on board, or in general agreement this close to an event, it's almost a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 AVL getting nailed at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hi Res NAM is close to changing over to snow for CLT at around hour 34 impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 CLT gets close to snow, but it's still a little toastier than I'd like to see at the surface for snow. AVL on the other hand is looking like a good spot to be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hi Res NAM is close to changing over to snow for CLT at around hour 34 impressive Yep high res NAM looks good for everyone west of CLT. This board might have a meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 CLT gets close to snow, but it's still a little toastier than I'd like to see at the surface for snow. AVL on the other hand is looking like a good spot to be right now. Got my go pro ready to do some time lapsing so I will try and cover this one full force. Kid in a candy store right now, is it October or January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Got my go pro ready to do some time lapsing so I will try and cover this one full force. Kid in a candy store right now, is it October of January? It's gonna be odd to have it raining here while it's pounding snow in western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 NAM coming in much wetter for WNC. I think Burg is right flizzard for Gastonia. This one is going to be fun, surprises on tap! How much wetter? And does it fall while the column is below freezing? Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 How much wetter? And does it fall while the column is below freezing? Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Gives all of Buncombe Co. .5+ with NE Buncombe @.75 qpf compared to .25-.5 qpf on previous runs. Column looks to maybe go above freezing at 2pm but back to freezing at 5pm I believe. ETA Column looks to hover around 2c between that time period. Possible it could be snow depending on rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Forecast coming out soon for yall! Follow me on twitter for the latest please @wxmanchris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I really like the 700mb RH charts on the 00Z NAM. They look juicy for pretty much all of WNC from hour 30 to 45. What a great run from the NAM... Here are the 24-hour QPF totals from hour 24 to hour 48. Again, lots of moisture here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Gives all of Buncombe Co. .5+ with NE Buncombe @.75 qpf compared to .25-.5 qpf on previous runs. Column looks to maybe go above freezing at 2pm but back to freezing at 5pm I believe. ETA Column looks to hover around 2c between that time period. Possible it could be snow depending on rates. Wow ok. Thanks for the detailed post. When a system comes through at -5 sigma, you know it's gonna have surprises! I bet the models won't fully capture all of its potential. Certainly seems that wNC is in the crosshairs as the main 5h center goes directly overhead. Should be fairly steep lapse rates as well. Thunder? Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 How far down in SC does it go? Roughly from Spartanburg to Rock Hill just north of Florence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 CLT gets close to snow, but it's still a little toastier than I'd like to see at the surface for snow. AVL on the other hand is looking like a good spot to be right now.Yea for sure. I'm not expecting anything more than a dusting on car tops at the most. Hoping we can luck out with a flizzard given the warm surface temps. I love the thickness profiles though they are making me very optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 on the hires nam maps temps are in the mid 30s areas under the low while it is near 50 everywhere else, crazy to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wow ok. Thanks for the detailed post. When a system comes through at -5 sigma, you know it's gonna have surprises! I bet the models won't fully capture all of its potential. Certainly seems that wNC is in the crosshairs as the main 5h center goes directly overhead. Should be fairly steep lapse rates as well. Thunder? Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Certainly looks dynamic enough for you guys if this run of the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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