strongwxnc Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Euro Ensemble Update: Accumulating snowfall members: Asheville: 47/50 34 with 2"+ Boone: 46/50 29 with 4"+ Franklin: 48/50 36 with 2"+ Charlotte: 9/50 Greensboro: 2/50 Hickory: 16/50 1 with 2" Shelby: 11/50 Greenville, SC: 16/50 Columbia, SC: 5/50 Rock Hill: 9/50 Spartanburg: 15/50 one with 2" Atlanta: 15/50 Augusta: 6/50 Dalton: 41/50 Canton: 22/50 Carrollton: 5/50 Marietta: 13/50 Peachtree City: 3/50 Athens: 11/50 Blairsville: 49/50 7 with +2" Showing up nicely In the upstate. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z is looking a little weaker with that northern energy. May end up being slightly west and south of 12z GFS....let's see where she goes. Out to 33. Compared to 12z it was already closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Scratch that further east of 12z. Also not as strong. @42 it's one contour while 12z had it two contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z is looking a little weaker with that northern energy. May end up being slightly west and south of 12z GFS....let's see where she goes. Out to 33. I just wanna say......I'm posting in this pinned thread.....about a winter event(outside the mts)......on OCTOBER 30th, 2014 Now.....back to your regular scheduled pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Surface maps have colder air than 12z. 534 thickness running east of CLT down to CHS...wow. Def. should be flurries around SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 You were calling this a weenie fail event earlier this week! Glad to see some optimism! I hope it stays around for the rest of winter. I could also see NW ATL getting in on the flake action. Yes sir, I'm shocked. No way I thought this would happen. Now someone will see a foot and maybe even 18"+. It's really insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 If this thing can overperform in QPF it would make for a really fun morning. Again SFC temps aren't there but seeing flakes on Nov 1...well can't beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 So is the EE rule still applicable?? Because the NAM/Euro handle the upper low pretty much the same; then you have the GFS and CMC which don't look anything like them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z GFS looks like an improvement in the northern Piedmont, though it's basically the same. Just a few miles means a lot and it will come down to nowcasting, probably. I have to work Saturday morning, so I probably won't get to enjoy it if anything falls, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 ULL's really are the worst to try and forecast a tack for might as well just wait until 12 hours out when you can watch the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 SNE weenies will be rooting for this run. Makes a left turn and slams into Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 All I can see is the NAM 4k out to 24 hours right now. That low has a long way to drop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 ULL's really are the worst to try and forecast a tack for might as well just wait until 12 hours out when you can watch the RAP Indeed 10-20 miles will make a difference to someone and they won't have a clue who until it's kickoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 All I can see is the NAM 4k out to 24 hours right now. That low has a long way to drop! nam4k_24hs_500mb.jpg It goes all the way down to northern Florida.... That is a heck of a push this early in the year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Me thinks flakes will occur in the NW burbs of ATL.I fully expect to see a flurry or two in my neck of the woods. We saw flurries on Halloween night back in 1995 I think but that system was nothing like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Didn't read through these posts yet but wanted to post some information for those in the Midlands of South Carolina. Temps are going to be too warm to even see a flake or flurry. 850's weren't too bad, but of course that's not the only factor. Also, the GEFS only has one member (It may be the Operational) showing anything even falling as frozen precipitation in KCAE. The 12z run of the ECMWF has 5 members showing very trace amounts with no accumulation. The low down, it will not snow in KCAE this time around guys. It will be too warm for it to stay frozen on the way down. Sorry. Edit: Checked the current forecast discussion for KCAE and read the following: THE SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAYNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE TOO WARM TO SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN AT THE SURFACE. ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500MBTEMPERATURES AROUND -26C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -3C TO -5CTHERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GRAUPLE MIXING IN WITH ANY OF THESTRONGER SHOWERS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE CONVECTIVEPRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 27 mins · UPDATE: Here is the latest on the Coastal Storm forecast to impact Eastern NC this weekend. Be aware. Be prepared. #encwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Latest snow outlook from the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Latest snow outlook from the GFS.... Looking to possibly be a big deal in the moutains. Very impressive for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z GFS really upped the ante from 12z... Hope it's sniffing out the deformation band, but as always, nowcasting will be the rule of the day. Not seeing the snow making it that far into SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Definitely exciting! Even though I will be on the outside looking in here in Easley, it's very "cool" to be talking about this in Oct. Hope you mountain guys get plastered! Just might have to go snow chasing on Sat. I think down sloping will be a major problem for us in the upstate, and the best chance in SC will be around the Union, Gaffney, Rock Hill areas ( those usually fare the best). Just happy to be looking at some colder temps for a couple days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Definitely exciting! Even though I will be on the outside looking in here in Easley, it's very "cool" to be talking about this in Oct. Hope you mountain guys get plastered! Just might have to go snow chasing on Sat. I think down sloping will be a major problem for us in the upstate, and the best chance in SC will be around the Union, Gaffney, Rock Hill areas ( those usually fare the best). Just happy to be looking at some colder temps for a couple days!If the band forms early, we will be in business ! I expect flurries atleast, with coating on grass a miracle! I just want to say I saw the earliest flakes on record here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z GFS really upped the ante from 12z... Hope it's sniffing out the deformation band, but as always, nowcasting will be the rule of the day. Not seeing the snow making it that far into SC. I've always preferred relying more on thickness when it comes to snow falling. Given how the GFS looks it would not surprise me at all if CAE was able see some flakes. Obviously nothing major or even a dusting but that is some very cold air aloft and even at lower levels. All of this is dependent on so many things working together in tandem that it makes it no very likely....but again would not be shocked or surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I've always preferred relying more on thickness when it comes to snow falling. Given how the GFS looks it would not surprise me at all if CAE was able see some flakes. Obviously nothing major or even a dusting but that is some very cold air aloft and even at lower levels. All of this is dependent on so many things working together in tandem that it makes it no very likely....but again would not be shocked or surprised. For KCAE, I glanced over the BL temps and wasn't impressed per Euro. The GFS has been overdoing the cold for many other areas so far this season from what I have looked at and heard. Not quite sure what' up with that. Now, with the above said, it is quite a system for this time of the year and although I really don't think KCAE will see much (if any) actual flakes, the graupel idea seems plausible as the ULL passes. I'd think if the ULL goes to the South of KCAE and we get on the NW corner of it, we would have a chance to actually see some flakes but I'm not very confident in that idea. ULLs are so hard to predict and pinpoint though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Here is my final call map. This one should be fun for the mountains and I think some in the piedmont will see a trace! Looking forward to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Some dumb ass from west Georgia said we would have a late freeze this year and was bitching about it. 'Copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Here is my final call map. This one should be fun for the mountains and I think some in the piedmont will see a trace! Looking forward to it! Looks good to me! There is one other impact factor that hasn't really been discussed yet though, and that's the winds. If snow accumulates as forecast, what impact will 40-60 mph winds have on trees that haven't completely been defoliated yet? I expect a number of power outages on Saturday across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Some dumb ass from west Georgia said we would have a late freeze this year and was bitching about it. 'CopterI know that fella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Looks good to me! There is one other impact factor that hasn't really been discussed yet though, and that's the winds. If snow accumulates as forecast, what impact will 40-60 mph winds have on trees that haven't completely been defoliated yet? I expect a number of power outages on Saturday across the region. Good to see you HT and thanks! I am also worried about this. The largest trees have yet to even change yet so this could turn into a mess up here! I hope Duke/Progress is ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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