Solak Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 US National Weather Service Wilmington NC 3 mins · Just how unusual was the strong upper level low that moved across South Carolina today? 500 millibar heights were 300 meters below normal and 850 mb temperatures were 15 degrees C below normal for early November in South Carolina. That's five to six standard deviations from normal and represents an event that is extraordinarily rare. The earliest snow in Columbia, SC's history also occurred today beating the old record by eight days. This image is from the PSU-NWS collaborative website at http://eyewall.met.psu.edu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Here's radar around me at appx 5:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Here's one more radar grab, probly sideways, but was an awesome sight to see and fairly accurate depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Just going to mention the local mets blew this big time. All 3 stations said maybe a flurry, but no chance of accums outside the mtns, or something of that kind. All the good discussion and model interpretations were all over this from 3-4 days out. Are local stations are just looking silly right now and everyone in the upstate and midlands that is not on this forum , had a giant surprise this morning, a trick, if you will, but a treat for me! Here's something that you have to remember... First off, this was a once in 50-year type of upper low when it came to the heights, thickness levels etc...that took a very abnormal track. It more or less dropped due south from the southern extent of the Arctic Circle to the Southern Appalachians...you may or may not see that happen again in your lifetime. I even remember WxSouth a few days ago note in a Facebook post that this was such an abnormal track that it was hard even for him to forecast it given the tendency of how things usually pan out around these parts... That comment can also piggyback itself to local television...the stations in our market are going to play that conservative when it comes to addressing the general public...you have to remember, their message is going out to the average Joe. Could you imagine the flack someone like John Cessarich would caught if he would had said last night 1-3 inches likely in the Upstate? People in Greenville and Laurens would have applauded him for the gutsy call while Spartanburg, Union, Gaffney etc... would have ripped him for saying it was going to snow an accumulate on November 1st. Since I have started providing weather coverage on social media, I've learned that in cases of minor-impact events that you have to play it conservative publicly knowing behind the scenes you may have to play catch-up. The price of having to NOWcast upward is nowhere near as costly as the price you pay in shooting high and having to explain why something wasn't as big as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Here's something that you have to remember... First off, this was a once in 50-year type of upper low when it came to the heights, thickness levels etc...that took a very abnormal track. It more or less dropped due south from the southern extent of the Arctic Circle to the Southern Appalachians...you may or may not see that happen again in your lifetime. I even remember WxSouth a few days ago note in a Facebook post that this was such an abnormal track that it was hard even for him to forecast it given the tendency of how things usually pan out around these parts... That comment can also piggyback itself to local television...the stations in our market are going to play that conservative when it comes to addressing the general public...you have to remember, their message is going out to the average Joe. Could you imagine the flack someone like John Cessarich would caught if he would had said last night 1-3 inches likely in the Upstate? People in Greenville and Laurens would have applauded him for the gutsy call while Spartanburg, Union, Gaffney etc... would have ripped him for saying it was going to snow an accumulate on November 1st. Since I have started providing weather coverage on social media, I've learned that in cases of minor-impact events that you have to play it conservative publicly knowing behind the scenes you may have to play catch-up. The price of having to NOWcast upward is nowhere near as costly as the price you pay in shooting high and having to explain why something wasn't as big as advertised. Good points!I just wish we would have a local met like Andy Wood, he was a wx geek like most of us and would call for snow when nobody else would and talk about all possibilities. The closest we have now, I believe, is Chris Justus, the weekend met on 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Good points!How much snow did you pick up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 How much snow did you pick up?I had a dusting on grass, but had " cotton balls" coming down for about 2 hours. Right near downtown Greenville , they had 3+ inches on grass! Very big overperformer in my book. Drove up to Asheville today to " chase" it snowed the whole time I was there and they had about 3 inches on grass and wind was ripping at about 25 w/ gusts to 40+, it was a great day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Here's one more radar grab, probly sideways, but was an awesome sight to see and fairly accurate depiction Not for here - nada. Zero. Right there where SPTG county and GVL county meet just above I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Not for here - nada. Zero. Right there where SPTG county and GVL county meet just above I-85. Same here, nothing in Easley. And looking at the maps Mack posted looks like I was only about 3-5 miles away. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Just out... Winter Storm Summary from the Weather Prediction Center.http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_winter_storm_summary.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Yea, I mean it's starting to look like somebody outside of the mountains will see some accumulation with this. (Assuming the Euro/NAM are right with the extreme sub 540 low pinching off by 2 contours.) If you have a sub 540 low closing off by 2 contours at daybreak with 850mb temps from -4 to -8C underneath it, somebody is going to get a band of heavy accumulating snow from it.... I don't care if it is November 1st. Well we got the sub 540 low. It closed off by 2 contours, and 850 temps where in the -4 to -8 range... and sure enough there was a band of heavy accumulating snow associated with it. I think many forecaster's let the November 1st date play into their overly conservative forecast for this storm. IMO, If they had not looked at a calendar before predicting this storm, most forecaster's would have at least mentioned the chance for accumulating snow outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Well we got the sub 540 low. It closed off by 2 contours, and 850 temps where in the -4 to -8 range... and sure enough there was a band of heavy accumulating snow associated with it. I think many forecaster's let the November 1st date play into their overly conservative forecast for this storm. IMO, If they had not looked at a calendar before predicting this storm, most forecaster's would have at least mentioned the chance for accumulating snow outside of the mountains. That was a good call burrel. I'm not big on conservative forecasting / forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Well we got the sub 540 low. It closed off by 2 contours, and 850 temps where in the -4 to -8 range... and sure enough there was a band of heavy accumulating snow associated with it. I think many forecaster's let the November 1st date play into their overly conservative forecast for this storm. IMO, If they had not looked at a calendar before predicting this storm, most forecaster's would have at least mentioned the chance for accumulating snow outside of the mountains. I think that very easy to say...after the fact! How many times have you seen an upper low dive straight from Northern Canada to just under the base of the Appalachian mountain chain? I don't blame a single forecaster for being conservative in regards to accumulating snowfall outside of the mountains in that kind of setup. The exact track in the upper levels allowed moisture levels to remain supportive of efficient enough precip for snows. Since the low went under the base of the Smokies the 500mb winds from the Upstate to the Smokies veered from SW to S to SE to E to NE. Adjust that upper low track as little as 40 miles and you're talking a much quicker transition to downslope flow for Upper SC. 850mb temps were not as big a deal because we all knew that was going to be the case. But you gotta have enough moisture in the growth region for it to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Didn't get anything here either but i'm kind of glad since leaves are still on the trees. It may have been pretty, but it would have caused too many problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I drove from Blue Ridge to Helen and got lucky enough to see some snow. There were actually still some flurries around 2-3pm so I was surprised to see that. The temp on my car thermometer went from 39 to 32 once I got to the top. Attached some pics below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Yes and likely ! Midlands SC picked up more snow on Nov 1st than Atlanta will see the entire winter! That is an awfully bold statement, the same could be said for where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 That is an awfully bold statement, the same could be said for where you live. It is more than likely correct though. Atlanta over 6 inches in a winter, is very rare as you well know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 That is an awfully bold statement, the same could be said for where you live.Same could easily be said about where I live. But , my avg is 7 inches a year , give or take, but that's about 4 times as much as ATL avg, so I'll take my chances. I've been skunked a few times too, but this year I think I'm looking at 12+ winter total when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 It is more than likely correct though. Atlanta over 6 inches in a winter, is very rare as you well know. Living near Canton you ought to know that the "official" reading for ATL is NOT representative of the Metro as a whole. For instance March 1993, 4 measly inches at KATL while just a few miles W, NW, N, NE all were over 10-15". Also the temp dept. as well, especially on radiational nights like last night, I had 27 while KATL made it to 35 or 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Living near Canton you ought to know that the "official" reading for ATL is NOT representative of the Metro as a whole. For instance March 1993, 4 measly inches at KATL while just a few miles W, NW, N, NE all were over 10-15". Also the temp dept. as well, especially on radiational nights like last night, I had 27 while KATL made it to 35 or 36. It doesn't matter....official is just that.....official. It's what will be sitting in the books 100 years from now. There will not be a side note stating what other areas close by received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Same could easily be said about where I live. But , my avg is 7 inches a year , give or take, but that's about 4 times as much as ATL avg, so I'll take my chances. I've been skunked a few times too, but this year I think I'm looking at 12+ winter total when all is said and done. I hope you're right Mack, but the odds are not with you, though the upstate is certainly " due". From 1959-1960 season through 1992-1993 season, GSP recorded 13 years with at least 10.0 inches of snow ( a 34 year period). Or, about 2 out of every 5 years. Sadly, it hasn't recorded even one since then; a period of 21 years! Certainly many surrounding areas have recorded that much in some years, like 95-96, 2004, 2009-2010, and 2010-2011, but you get the idea. Most of the higher totals since 95-96 have been east and south of Greenville. Maybe this year will finally be a good one for us westerners, though we are not off to a good start Need some good Miller A"s for that! (All info from noaa) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 To the comments about "the Midlands" getting more snow than ATL will get all year in one go.. This happened due to a freak event. We probably won't see it again in our life-times idk. The thing is, the accumulation of 4-6" + was confined to an area in Lexington county which is the Western Midlands. Basically, many had a slight dusting.. but the real hammer was in Lexington. There are people who live only 2 or 3 miles from the 6 inch areas that only had a slight dusting if even that. I honestly thought nobody was going to see anything. The models showed snow "falling" but nothing on Bufkit and all that was really "standing out". The HRRR went nuts Halloween night and it turned out correct with the track. EVEN it had the big winners as Saluda SC at points. I figured it was just going to track a bit further North and give those in Newberry or Fairfield, or CLT/Rock Hill the best shot. In short, I don't really count this event as a snow storm. It was a freak of nature that just happened. I have no consideration of this event going into the WInter about how it's going to be. I'm more interested if this year will be like 09/10 where the moisture was staying too far South for everyone to get the good stuff outside of SC/Southern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Relative to long term norms, snow areas of SC have certainly shifted. Midlands and Rock Hill/ Gaffney areas have faired much better than GSP since about 2000. Just in the last 5 years, GSP has recorded just 24.1 inches total (4.8/ yr), while CAE has recorded 17.9 (3.6 / yr). Historically, GSP has received nearly three times that of CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 To the comments about "the Midlands" getting more snow than ATL will get all year in one go.. This happened due to a freak event. We probably won't see it again in our life-times idk. The thing is, the accumulation of 4-6" + was confined to an area in Lexington county which is the Western Midlands. Basically, many had a slight dusting.. but the real hammer was in Lexington. There are people who live only 2 or 3 miles from the 6 inch areas that only had a slight dusting if even that. I honestly thought nobody was going to see anything. The models showed snow "falling" but nothing on Bufkit and all that was really "standing out". The HRRR went nuts Halloween night and it turned out correct with the track. EVEN it had the big winners as Saluda SC at points. I figured it was just going to track a bit further North and give those in Newberry or Fairfield, or CLT/Rock Hill the best shot. In short, I don't really count this event as a snow storm. It was a freak of nature that just happened. I have no consideration of this event going into the WInter about how it's going to be. I'm more interested if this year will be like 09/10 where the moisture was staying too far South for everyone to get the good stuff outside of SC/Southern GA. Shawn, KATL-KAHN and much of N GA also did quite well with ~5" in 2009-10. At the time, it was the biggest KATL sesonal SN/IP since 1982-3. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 09-10 for Georgia http://www.daculaweather.com/4_winter_2009-2010_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Steve, Thanks for posting that to show that 09-10 was, indeed, an elite winter in terms of both cold and snow in ATL-AHN corridor of N GA. So, the downplaying of 2009-10 in any way is not at all applicable for ATL-AHN. Also, I've been emphasizing how impressively snowy it has been in that corridor since 2008-9. Since Steve's link's top snow years was out just after 2009-10, KATL has had two additional top ten (since 1929) snowy winters: 2010-1 and 2013-4! Plus, 2008-9 and many other areas had that major 3/1 upper low related snow. So, KATL has had a whopping three top ten snowy winters (since 1929) just within the last five years! Only the late 70's-early 80's can match that since 1929. So, that's why I have mentioned that there really is no room to complain about snow in the ATL-AHN corridor as well as nearby areas in recent years. If someone is somehow not content, that person will likely rarely ever be content unless he/she were to move north to where climo favors heavier snow. The funny thing is that despite this impressively snowy period there since 2008-9, all signs are pointing to a pretty decent chance of adding 2014-5 to the top ten list! That's why I've mentioned that I'm wondering if ATL-AHN has entered another 1880's-early 1900's kind of snowy era (this period not on that list of snowiest winters since 1929, of course). What that era and the last few years have in common is a significant decline in sunspot activity. Just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yes, I didn't add any of the later dates to that table since that was a snapshot of the winter at that time frame. We need to get together and create some pages for some of your data Larry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Shawn, KATL-KAHN and much of N GA also did quite well with ~5" in 2009-10. At the time, it was the biggest KATL sesonal SN/IP since 1982-3. . I remember multiple storms that year. Was that from the Feb one that even got some of NC when it looked like the moisture was too far South? Edit: You mean total for the season! Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 It doesn't matter....official is just that.....official. It's what will be sitting in the books 100 years from now. There will not be a side note stating what other areas close by received. Yeah - don't really care about "official" in that sense - much prefer the reality (as I am near Canton as well)... As for being lumped in with Atlanta - yet another reason it "stinks"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 It really doesn't matter guys. You know where you live, and you know where Atlanta is. And I'm sure you know the difference in weather between the two. Ya'll are pretty smart... you can extrapolate and figure it out. I know that over here in Gwinnett County my winters are pretty different than KATL, and I'm about 40 miles NE. I expect more and I get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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