DaculaWeather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Probably needed a thread just for this event to keep the confusion down. 500 MB, 5.5 standard deviation below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Wonder when the models will stop ticking south, compare the last 2 12z GFS runs....Euro ticking south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Thanks Steve. Beautiful maps! Let's get the 2014-2015 winter season started early ! I will take a front loaded winter any time over a delayed one. May November thru February be fantastic with storms, rumors of storms and then more storms and plenty of cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I see the downslope is giving us the finger on that snow map, as per usual! Let's start the winter off with a screw job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Me thinks flakes will occur in the NW burbs of ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Will be interesting to see where the deformation zone sets up, seen it hinted on several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 First forecast for a chance of snow Saturday for the season. Can't recall the last time I saw frozen precip while most leaves are on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 TWC hasn't named this yet? Gonna be a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 CLT up to 70% for a rain snow mix early Saturday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 CLT up to 70% for a rain snow mix early Saturday morning! RAL updated here as well. Amazing for the date. Sat: Rain, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all rain after noon. High near 44. North wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z NAM has the 5h low crossing Charleston, SC. Yesterday it was over ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z nam continues the trend of showing precp further west and south in south carolina. In fact, the nam shows precip actually making to where I'm at. It's a very short 2 or 3 hour window but certainly a chance of snow mixing in with the rain here, if it verified. That said, The nam flat out shows the best chance for snow outside the mountains being in south carolina from gsp down to columbia. 12z gfs obviously is showing the best shot of snow in south carolina too, just a little further east. It is way too warm over most of north carolina at all levels. I sure hope the trend continues, it would suck to miss out on such a highly unusual system and the earliest snow I've ever seen while just a few tens of miles away there are some flakes flying although that's probably what happens as odds are I'm just on the outside looking in. Incredibly, it goes from snow or rain/snow at 15z to temps possibly cracking 50 a few hours later lol Nam's bullseye is just south of gsp/east of anderson down to grd maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 US National Weather Service Raleigh NCabout an hour ago Unseasonably cold air will move into the area behind a front on Saturday. Periods of rain, perhaps a few snow flakes for some, and windy conditions are expected on Saturday as moisture wraps back around low pressure positioned along the coast. Then, a frost/freeze is expected across much of central NC Sunday and Monday mornings. This will mark the end of the growing season. More details in the briefing graphic below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z nam has a quick burst of moderate snow over the upstate Saturday morning. Surface temps are in the mid 30's so nothing would stick, but it looks like it could come down really hard for an hour or two. Timing is perfect for us as a sub 540 low closes off just to southwest and put's us under the best dynamics right at day break. This setup has certainly piqued my interest. Especially if the Euro and NAM are correct in their depiction of the upper low passing by just to our South and West. I'm thinking this is gonna be a huge over performer for the mountains, maybe some places will get over a foot?? Edit: I see it has piqued Lookout's interest as well... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lookout, Please check your mailbox. Thanks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is a sounding near Anderson,SC at 10am Saturday morning. This is a solid snow sounding and actually is cold enough for stickage if rates are good. Did I mention that the NAM bulleyes Anderson, SC with over 1/2 inch of liquid between 6am and 10am Saturday morning?? Verbatim, the 18z NAM is showing a quick burst of accumulating snow(maybe 2 or 3 inches on grassy surfaes) in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is a sounding near Anderson,SC at 10am Saturday morning. This is a solid snow sounding and actually is cold enough for stickage if rates are good. Did I mention that the NAM bulleyes Anderson, SC with over 1/2 inch of liquid between 6am and 10am Saturday morning?? Verbatim, the 18z NAM is showing a quick burst of accumulating snow(maybe 2 or 3 inches on grassy surfaes) in the upstate. Love it! Thanks for posting ! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Yea, I mean it's starting to look like somebody outside of the mountains will see some accumulation with this. (Assuming the Euro/NAM are right with the extreme sub 540 low pinching off by 2 contours.) If you have a sub 540 low closing off by 2 contours at daybreak with 850mb temps from -4 to -8C underneath it, somebody is going to get a band of heavy accumulating snow from it.... I don't care if it is November 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC2 hours ago Any snow that falls at Greenville-Spartanburg or Charlotte on Saturday, even flurries, would set a record for the day. Neither site has ever recorded snow on November 1. It would be the second earliest snow at Charlotte, and the third earliest at Greenville-Spartanburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lots of uncertainty with this storm coming up. 5 standard deviations from normal would mean that this storm happens 1 in 1,744,278 times or once every 4,776 years. Had to check a couple of sources and that what they said. Someone correct me if I am wrong but this would seem rather rare haha. The best chart I could find only goes out to 4 standard deviations but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is a sounding near Anderson,SC at 10am Saturday morning. This is a solid snow sounding and actually is cold enough for stickage if rates are good. Did I mention that the NAM bulleyes Anderson, SC with over 1/2 inch of liquid between 6am and 10am Saturday morning?? Verbatim, the 18z NAM is showing a quick burst of accumulating snow(maybe 2 or 3 inches on grassy surfaes) in the upstate. What's incredible is how localized it is. While it's showing snow just east/around anderson... no more than 20 miles in every other direction it's raining with temps in the upper 30s to near 40 lol. The biggest point is obviously it's all about location location location. One needs to be under that band to overcome the warm surface layer. That said, if a run shows you in it, take it with a grain of salt right now because it's almost certainly going to shift the exact location of that band around from run to run. I wouldn't be surprised if no one will fully know until just before kickoff. Here is the text sounding for just east of anderson at 15z sat. NAM Text Sounding | 15 UTC Sat 01 Nov 2014 | Latitude: 34.5244 | Longitude: -82.4750 PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 984.0 234 0.4 0.1 98 3.9 293 6 0.3 1.1 274.8 285.7 275.5 975.0 308 0.0 -0.1 99 3.9 294 9 -0.0 0.7 275.2 286.0 275.8 950.0 516 0.0 -0.2 98 4.0 318 18 -0.1 0.7 277.2 288.3 277.9 925.0 730 -0.9 -1.3 97 3.8 335 24 -1.0 -0.3 278.4 289.0 279.0 900.0 948 -2.2 -2.6 97 3.5 345 30 -2.3 -1.6 279.3 289.3 279.9 875.0 1171 -3.0 -3.6 95 3.4 357 38 -3.2 -2.4 280.7 290.3 281.3 850.0 1401 -3.1 -3.6 96 3.5 14 40 -3.3 -2.5 282.9 292.9 283.5 825.0 1637 -3.4 -3.9 96 3.5 32 39 -3.6 -2.8 285.0 295.1 285.6 800.0 1880 -3.9 -4.4 97 3.5 45 37 -4.1 -3.4 286.9 297.1 287.5 775.0 2131 -4.8 -5.3 96 3.3 55 33 -5.0 -4.2 288.6 298.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z nam has a quick burst of moderate snow over the upstate Saturday morning. Surface temps are in the mid 30's so nothing would stick, but it looks like it could come down really hard for an hour or two. Timing is perfect for us as a sub 540 low closes off just to southwest and put's us under the best dynamics right at day break. This setup has certainly piqued my interest. Especially if the Euro and NAM are correct in their depiction of the upper low passing by just to our South and West. I'm thinking this is gonna be a huge over performer for the mountains, maybe some places will get over a foot?? Edit: I see it has piqued Lookout's interest as well... LOL I'll know Saturday morning but won't be able to post until I get home that night. I'm planning on hiking through a foot or more up to Leconte and I'm waterproofing my things tonight. Keep an eye on the Leconte blog. They're making preparations today and tomorrow up there which probably means carrying more supplies tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Me thinks flakes will occur in the NW burbs of ATL. You were calling this a weenie fail event earlier this week! Glad to see some optimism! I hope it stays around for the rest of winter. I could also see NW ATL getting in on the flake action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Current 18z NAM precip... Is it just me or does it seem like with every run the snow drops futher south??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Hi-RES NAM places snow solely west of 85 around AVL and around GSP. I think the problem for anyone est and north of this area is the fact that there aren't very heavy rates. I'm a bit suspicious of this track with the ULL sure to change. Will def. be interesting if it keeps ticking south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lookout, I agree, and I think that the idea of a band heavy enough to bring down snow given the thermal profile is almost a certainty, assuming the 500mb depiction is right on the NAM and Euro. Take a look at the lift generated over the upstate on the NAM. Also, There's no need for anyone to get their hopes up or down on where this area is being depicted. The 500mb center is still making rather large swings on the models.... so who knows which area might find themselves in the sweet spot on saturday morning??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 The current GFS on the left (12Z run) and the 00Z run on the right. If anything, more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Euro Ensemble Update: Accumulating snowfall members: Asheville: 47/50 34 with 2"+ Boone: 46/50 29 with 4"+ Franklin: 48/50 36 with 2"+ Charlotte: 9/50 Greensboro: 2/50 Hickory: 16/50 1 with 2" Shelby: 11/50 Greenville, SC: 16/50 Columbia, SC: 5/50 Clemson: 24/50 Rock Hill: 9/50 Spartanburg: 15/50 one with 2" Atlanta: 15/50 Augusta: 6/50 Dalton: 41/50 Canton: 22/50 Carrollton: 5/50 Marietta: 13/50 Peachtree City: 3/50 Athens: 11/50 Blairsville: 49/50 7 with +2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Euro Ensemble Update: Accumulating snowfall members: Asheville: 47/50 34 with 2"+ Boone: 46/50 29 with 4"+ Franklin: 48/50 36 with 2"+ Charlotte: 9/50 Greensboro: 2/50 Hickory: 16/50 1 with 2" Shelby: 11/50 Greenville, SC: 16/50 Columbia, SC: 5/50 Rock Hill: 9/50 Spartanburg: 15/50 one with 2" Atlanta: 15/50 Thanks. I was surprised the OP Euro came out wetter...and colder. This seems to be one trending in everyone's favor. AVL looks to be money right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Thanks. I was surprised the OP Euro came out wetter...and colder. This seems to be one trending in everyone's favor. AVL looks to be money right now. Yeah we are sitting pretty right now up here! This one is going to be fun, I am betting CLT sees flakes tomorrow. Love the fact that the Euro trended wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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