RaleighWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Have at it. Winter201415Forecast.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Thanks for posting! I very informative, and very exciting forecast for snow lovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Hope to see you around more this winter. The last page is my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Great forecast and very informative. Whether or not we have a bad/good winter, we will learn many many things to help us mold future forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Hard to get more bullish than that...I like it. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Great job allan . I agree with this 100 percent ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Great job! Thanks for posting. What were the winters like for those top analog years you referenced? 2009-10 2002-03 1958-59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Cold and snowy for southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I don't know how you could have a colder/snowier forecast. Very well-reasoned. I hope you verify on the low end of what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Very nice! Looking forward to a great winter! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Great job! Thanks for posting. What were the winters like for those top analog years you referenced? 2009-10 2002-03 1958-59 1) Allan, very nice job of explaining things and quite believable. 2) KATL: -2009-10 very cold (over 4 below normal and 9th coldest on record) (coldest since 1977-8) with 5.3" of SN/IP, which is 265% of the normal; one of the top winters ever in terms of combo of cold and SN -2002-3: slightly below normal temperatures (~1 below longterm average) with T of SN/IP but got a moderate ZR -1958-9: near longterm average for temp.'s and 2.4" of SN/IP, which is 120% of normal Averaged together, they give KATL ~ 2 below normal and 2.6" of SN/IP, which is ~130% of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 1) Allan, very nice job of explaining things and quite believable. 2) KATL: -2009-10 very cold (over 4 below normal and 9th coldest on record) (coldest since 1977-8) with 5.3" of SN/IP, which is 265% of the normal; one of the top winters ever in terms of combo of cold and SN -2002-3: slightly below normal temperatures (~1 below longterm average) with T of SN/IP -1958-9: near longterm average for temp.'s and 2.4" of SN/IP, which is 120% of normal Averaged together, they give KATL ~ 2 below normal and 2.6" of SN/IP, which is ~130% of normal. Thanks Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Sweet write-up Allan and I sure hope it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Great job! Thanks for posting. What were the winters like for those top analog years you referenced? 2009-10 2002-03 1958-59 I just checked for KRDU for the three Allan main analogs (SN/IP includes March as I did for KATL): -2009-10: 3.2 colder than normal with 8.0" SN/IP -2002-03: 2.5 colder than normal with 7.4" of SN/IP and a major ZR -1958-59: 2.2 colder than normal with a whopping 13.5" of SN/IP and a moderate ZR So, at KRDU, the three winters averaged together were 2.6 colder than normal and had 9.6" of SN/IP as well as moderate to major ZR in two of the three. What is the very longterm based normal SN/IP at KRDU? I thought I read that it is at least ~6-6.5" and possibly pushing 7". So, I'm estimating that these three years gave RDU ~150% of longterm normal SN/IP along with ZR in 2 of the 3. These aren't far from KATL's ~2 colder than normal and ~130% of normal SN/IP. It all looks promising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Nicely done, Allan. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and expertise with us all. The pdf file was a really sharp presentation and right on point. Not too much writing, but enough to explain your reasoning in each case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The eight winters you listed were basically a list of weenie paradises. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 wow, great write up (and not just because of the magic words "cold" and "snow") very thorough and well put together - this took a lot of time. thanks for posting it it also reminds me just how smart and how much weather knowledge many of our se posters have (qualities that sadly i do not possess lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Very impressive write up! It's obvious you spent a lot of time preparing it. Thanks for sharing Allan.....verification = batten down the hatches for eastern snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Very nice job Allan and very close to my earlier prediction of 3-5F below normal and 150-200% of normal for snowfall. I would add that a MUCH colder/snowier winter than even what we think here is very possible if things break out like the early indicators seem to point to. Time will tell as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Love this forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Great write up Allan! Hope you verify 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Great write up Allen. Thank you for posting and taking the time to write this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Awesome write up Allen, thanks for posting! Hope to see you here more this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Great work Allan! Good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Good read...Thanks for posting Allan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 This would be an all-time record-breaking winter, so I am doubtful the results will look like your maps, but I also doubt we would torch or be neutral most of the winter either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Have at it. GREAT work Allen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Thanks guys we will see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 This would be an all-time record-breaking winter, so I am doubtful the results will look like your maps, but I also doubt we would torch or be neutral most of the winter either. You? doubting? No way...I don't believe it. Great write up Allan. Hope it verifies, lots of mets calling for the same. Fingers crossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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