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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Met1985

Met1985

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What's the difference between a "freezing rain advisory" and a "winter weather advisory" that's for freezing rain ? Severity ? Amounts ? Duration ? To screw with people like me ?

lol Joe your funny man. Yeah probably just to screw with you. I think a freezing rain advisory is primarily for freezing rain but a winters weather advisory is for a variety of winter weather like sleet and maybe some snow also.
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WCWEATHER

WCWEATHER

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What's the difference between a "freezing rain advisory" and a "winter weather advisory" that's for freezing rain ? Severity ? Amounts ? Duration ? To screw with people like me ? 

 

Ptype only. Majority if not all precip needs to be freezing rain for freezing rain advisory....further north is not included because the onset could feature snow/sleet.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Anyone have any info on how WNC usually does snowfall wise with these anafront type events?  It seems to me that in the past we have had trouble getting the cold air to bleed through the mountains, and we never do well in these type events but it is hard to ignore what the Euro/GFS are suggesting.  I would be curious to know if we have ever gotten 4"+ at the airport from an event like this, but in my research there doesn't seem to be much on anafronts and how they affect the SE/WNC.  Just trying to put my forecast together for this week and am having a hard time deciding what is realistic(climo) compared to what the models are showing.  Anyone have any recollection of the last time we had a strong anafront move through during the winter and what it brought to your location?  Those OBS would be very valuable if anyone could share.

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

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Anyone have any info on how WNC usually does snowfall wise with these anafront type events?  It seems to me that in the past we have had trouble getting the cold air to bleed through the mountains, and we never do well in these type events but it is hard to ignore what the Euro/GFS are suggesting.  I would be curious to know if we have ever gotten 4"+ at the airport from an event like this, but in my research there doesn't seem to be much on anafronts and how they affect the SE/WNC.  Just trying to put my forecast together for this week and am having a hard time deciding what is realistic(climo) compared to what the models are showing.  Anyone have any recollection of the last time we had a strong anafront move through during the winter and what it brought to your location?  Those OBS would be very valuable if anyone could share.

 

I can't give you specific dates Hvward, but it seems like we usually struggle with the cold air bleeding into the Asheville area. It seems to make it to the Smokies and the Northern Mtns,. but someone puts up a wall here. I am sure that it has happened, but I just remember the fails.

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Hvward

Hvward

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I can't give you specific dates Hvward, but it seems like we usually struggle with the cold air bleeding into the Asheville area. It seems to make it to the Smokies and the Northern Mtns,. but someone puts up a wall here. I am sure that it has happened, but I just remember the fails.

 

 

Thanks ncjoaquin.  The 12z GFS continues to show a frozen column sounding over Asheville Thursday morning with decent moisture in place.  It appears this won't be your typical anafront with strong lee side cyclogenises taking place as the wave leaves the mountains.  Upper level winds flowing parallel aloft allow for moisture to propitiate back westward and into the mountains.  Couple that with a low pressure developing over central GA then moving off the coast and we could have a nice recipe for snow in WNC.  Still a ton of time for modeling to fall apart on this one, but it will be a good system to learn from.  I think flakes will certainly be possible in WNC with this one.. just a matter of how much gets strained out in the TN border.  If we get a sort of coastal low development, I would feel much better about seeing flakes in the French Broad valley, but I really feel like a needle will have to be threaded to get good accumulating snowfall at 2000'.  Fingers crossed this continues to trend in our direction!

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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Anyone have any info on how WNC usually does snowfall wise with these anafront type events? It seems to me that in the past we have had trouble getting the cold air to bleed through the mountains, and we never do well in these type events but it is hard to ignore what the Euro/GFS are suggesting. I would be curious to know if we have ever gotten 4"+ at the airport from an event like this, but in my research there doesn't seem to be much on anafronts and how they affect the SE/WNC. Just trying to put my forecast together for this week and am having a hard time deciding what is realistic(climo) compared to what the models are showing. Anyone have any recollection of the last time we had a strong anafront move through during the winter and what it brought to your location? Those OBS would be very valuable if anyone could share.

Normally anafronts don't work out here. Right now I would say the midweek snow is a "no go" for now with both GFS and Euro having snows back in Kentucky. Just isn't cold enough fast enough. A usual problem around here.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Normally anafronts don't work out here. Right now I would say the midweek snow is a "no go" for now with both GFS and Euro having snows back in Kentucky. Just isn't cold enough fast enough. A usual problem around here.

 

Thanks HT that confirms why I can't remember one really working out for us.  GFS and Euro both pretty much show this happening on their most recent runs so I think WNC, or at least the valleys will probably sit this one out.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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I went up to Ohio this weekend for an event and saw snow from Asheville all the way up to a town north of Cincinnati on Friday night. There was a snow depth of 3-5 inches while I was there and got to play in it so I had a great time :) As I was leaving Ohio, I got caught in that ongoing snowstorm and had a quick 2-3 inches with roads becoming very bad before I was able to get south of rain/snow line in Kentucky. Overall, it was a fun weekend but I'm tired of cold by now lol

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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Last time I was under one of these it didn't even get cloudy.

 

Freezing Rain Advisory

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

...LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...

.AFTER COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PAST TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE TOP OF A
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
BY AROUND DAYBREAK NORTH OF I-40 ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.


AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

* HAZARDS...A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE...MAINLY ON TREE LIMBS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES.

* TIMING...BEGINNING AROUND 4 AM...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

* IMPACTS...A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON TREE LIMBS...POWER LINES...AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD BECOME
SLIPPERY AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN PATCHY DENSE
FOG AND FREEZING FOG.

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Met1985

Met1985

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well fellows whats the take on Thursday morning?  I think the mtn. valleys will see at least a dusting or a little better.  very cold air coming in will wring out the atmospere.   :snowwindow:

a good look at things really is don't expect anything much other than a few flakes of snow at this point. The cold air just does not get in here and as we have discussed, we do not do well with these events.
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Met1985

Met1985

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Did some of the models trends help us for tonight and tomorrow or do things still look pretty blah....?

Ray seems to think 1 to 3 inch totals of ice/sleet/snow for most of the area.

Thoughts?

The models have been putting out more ice than anything really. We could see some snow but the cold just does not look to get in here quick enough.
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