BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I see Gsp have trended back snow totals even more. Might as well put us in an advisory if they keep trending down looks like maybe 2 to 4 inches according to GSP. Personally, I think something is way off with those totals and especially the tight gradients they are showing. I think all of SW NC is going to get pasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Personally, I think something is way off with those totals and especially the tight gradients they are showing. I think all of SW NC is going to get pasted. I think so to. The storm looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 All models are moving north with more qpf snowfall totals should have stayed the same or bumped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wish we were getting the QPF that Charlotte and points east were getting. Hoping for a big event here either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 All models are moving north with more qpf snowfall totals should have stayed the same or bumped up.Agreed. This is going to be an awsome storm whether GSP puts out nice totals or not. Radar and short range models look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 All models are moving north with more qpf snowfall totals should have stayed the same or bumped up. We'll get much more insight in the full discussion in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 well I'm on my way back for better or worse come back to Harrisonburg so think I should get back around 8 830 maybe it won't be too bad by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here's the GSP afternoon disco: AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICALGUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVERTHE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUETHE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THEVIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITHITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOONINTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILLOCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GOINTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THEMOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOWLINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOMESUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINSFOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OFPRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGINAS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITHTHE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERNUPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHERNORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPFINTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREAWITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOMECONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS INSOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSEBELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROMSOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTYGA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSSTHE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TOSOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THESNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ANDSHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THANFOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USEDPRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TOCAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THUTOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THATMAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow just looked at the Nam and all of wnc just gets hammered. A very good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow just looked at the Nam and all of wnc just gets hammered. A very good look.nam in line with the sref here. 8-10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow just looked at the Nam and all of wnc just gets hammered. A very good look. Yea, the NAM would be amazing for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Any of you SE Mtn boys and girls seeing anything? Some decent echos above you currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow. 11 inches in Old Fort on the NAM. I'm in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Any of you SE Mtn boys and girls seeing anything? Some decent echos above you currently.not yet, it looks dark tho and I can still see the 5500' peaks to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GSP still going conservative here (unless I am not seeing the right map). Going with 10-14 inches just outside Charlotte though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GSP did bump up totals a bit it seems. My location went from 3-5 to 3-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just saw the latest map from GSP and they have really decreased snow amounts here in the mountains. Will be interesting to see if they verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 God forbid me to be wrong on this one, but I've seen enough... Of course, 8+ totals for Smokies will be on peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Snow has started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Pouring snow in Graham County.GSP will bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nice map blue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Pouring snow in Graham County.GSP will bustnice! And yes they will. Blue nice map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hammer time pourin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 God forbid me to be wrong on this one, but I've seen enough... Of course, 8+ totals for Smokies will be on peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Excellent map Blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Light snow has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 252143Z - 252345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AMIDST WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AS SUCH...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...AIRMASS S OF THE FL PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MODIFY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 70 MI SSE OF MOB -- APPROACHES. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WITH THE WARM SECTOR SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AROUND 00Z. MATURING CYCLONE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY-STACKED...ENHANCING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TOPPING 80 KTS. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TROUGH. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..MOSIER/HART/GRAMS.. 02/25/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 went from light snow to heavy snow pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 went from light snow to heavy snow pretty quicknice bro! Virga storm here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 nice bro! Virga storm here! WOW at the 18Z NAM Met!! I may have my GSP forecast of 3" by 8PM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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