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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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BlueRidgeFolklore

BlueRidgeFolklore

Posted
Posted

I see Gsp have trended back snow totals even more. Might as well put us in an advisory if they keep trending down looks like maybe 2 to 4 inches according to GSP.

Personally, I think something is way off with those totals and especially the tight gradients they are showing. I think all of SW NC is going to get pasted. 

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

Here's the GSP afternoon disco:

 

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

mcd0099.gif

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 252143Z - 252345Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT   SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AMIDST WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AS   SUCH...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE   POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE   NEEDED.   DISCUSSION...AIRMASS S OF THE FL PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MODIFY AS A   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 70 MI SSE OF MOB   -- APPROACHES. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE WRN   FL PANHANDLE WITH THE WARM SECTOR SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL   AND ERN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS   IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AROUND 00Z. MATURING CYCLONE WILL BECOME   INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY-STACKED...ENHANCING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK   SHEAR TOPPING 80 KTS. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO.   MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW FAR   INLAND THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TROUGH.   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.   ..MOSIER/HART/GRAMS.. 02/25/2015
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