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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
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What do yall think of everyone's belief that the low is much further south that projected? Is that true or wish casting? If it is then that isn't good news for us

 

It's not further south.  It will track over south georgia then just off the Carolina coasts.  If anything, it's a touch stronger than the models thought.

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

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^Thanks! It's weird. In Old Fort a majority of the grassy places are still covered in snow and even parts of the sidewalk but in Swannanoa and Asheville? There are giant patches of no snow.

 

Definitely weird with this snow we had yesterday.  Even when I headed home from work up in North Cove last night, you could see more brown grass than you could snow.  But from about Woodlawn on into my house closer to Marion, the grass was/is completely covered.  Had close to 4 inches of snow yesterday morning and I'd venture to say up in North Cove it may have been around 2 inches.  That's within a matter of 5 miles.

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

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why would gsp knock totals down when if anything all the models are showing more and heavier precip. how do you figure that. Robert says the storm is getting dangerously strong and that snow totals will need to be adjusted up for most everyone.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about GSP right now.  They had me getting little to no snow accumulation yesterday morning and didn't even have an advisory out.  I ended up with right at 4 inches on the ground.

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CLTWolf

CLTWolf

Posted
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Sorry for the imby post, but I recently moved to Asheville, about a mile south of downtown, so I'm not familiar with the weather patterns here yet. So what is a realistic range for that area based on the latest models? I know Buncombe county has some dynamic geographical features but some maps I've seen have the city getting anywhere from 2-6 inches and the surrounding areas getting hammered. Also, what time do yall expect heavy precip to move into the area? I'm driving back from CLT this afternoon and want to try to time it so I'm not caught in the bad stuff. Thanks!

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
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Nam is even wetter. Now that's it's colder it's not getting bashed as much.

 

I've been in agreement with Robert on this one since Monday.  NAM has nailed these southwest lows last few weeks (and has a long history of getting them right too).  NAM was bashed all week long and I stood by it.  It has been rock-solid all week long with consistency. 

 

And then came the bashing about its QPF.  Now the QPF is probably going to be right.  GFS still in the cigar lounge while everyone else is on the dance floor.  HRRR, RAP, and NAM all on the same page.  Game on!

 

Now...question is will any of the mountain counties see thundersnow or a mesoscale snow band?  I think it's possible, especially for folks closer to the low near the NC/SC border.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

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Sorry for the imby post, but I recently moved to Asheville, about a mile south of downtown, but what is a realistic range for that area based on the latest models? I know Buncombe county has some dynamic geographical features but some maps I've seen have the city getting anywhere from 2-6 inches and the surrounding areas getting hammered. Also, what time do yall expect heavy precip to move into the area? I'm driving back from CLT this afternoon and want to try to time it so I'm not caught in the bad stuff. Thanks!

that number is way low in my book. I'll bet 6-10 with a possible 12 if the banding sets up or thundersnow happens. a storm like this plus it is trending nw a little on most models which puts areas n and west of the strorm in more precip. how can gsp have number like 2 inches even in there with a storm like this, amazing.
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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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that number is way low in my book. I'll bet 6-10 with a possible 12 if the banding sets up or thundersnow happens. a storm like this plus it is trending nw a little on most models which puts areas n and west of the strorm in more precip.

 

It's going to be a very heavy and wet snow.  Need to trim back totals to account for this, which is why I am sticking with 5-8" for the Asheville area.  Less to the north, more to the south.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I've been in agreement with Robert on this one since Monday. NAM has nailed these southwest lows last few weeks (and has a long history of getting them right too). NAM was bashed all week long and I stood by it. It has been rock-solid all week long with consistency.

And then came the bashing about its QPF. Now the QPF is probably going to be right. GFS still in the cigar lounge while everyone else is on the dance floor. HRRR, RAP, and NAM all on the same page. Game on!

Now...question is will any of the mountain counties see thundersnow or a mesoscale snow band? I think it's possible, especially for folks closer to the low near the NC/SC border.

Great analysis HT! Game on!
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CLTWolf

CLTWolf

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It's going to be a very heavy and wet snow. Need to trim back totals to account for this, which is why I am sticking with 5-8" for the Asheville area. Less to the north, more to the south.

Thanks guys. I'd be ecstatic with 5" on the low end!

Any ideas as to when the precip is gonna start?

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Obs from the Coast for you fellas, 43° (about 9 degrees cooler than forecast) Heavy Rain with Thunder. MOB had no mention of it in the AFD or grids. Don't think it's enough to rob you guys but, imo does show the system is probably more dynamic than modeled!

 

The classic "Rob Job" has crossed my mind this morning watching the precip develop. It might not do much for the core but might limit the northern part of the moisture. Which so happens to be the area that I reside.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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I see Gsp have trended back snow totals even more. Might as well put us in an advisory if they keep trending down looks like maybe 2 to 4 inches according to GSP.

 

 

Same here. Even saw some 1 to 2 for the northern mtns. Looks like this storm is going south and east. Oh well, glad our central peeps are going to get a good one. Maybe we can score in March before we wrap this winter up. Stay positive.!!!

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