Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What do yall think of everyone's belief that the low is much further south that projected? Is that true or wish casting? If it is then that isn't good news for us It's not further south. It will track over south georgia then just off the Carolina coasts. If anything, it's a touch stronger than the models thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ^Thanks! It's weird. In Old Fort a majority of the grassy places are still covered in snow and even parts of the sidewalk but in Swannanoa and Asheville? There are giant patches of no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's not farther south. It's right in line with guidance. Some weenie in south Atlanta posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ^Thanks! It's weird. In Old Fort a majority of the grassy places are still covered in snow and even parts of the sidewalk but in Swannanoa and Asheville? There are giant patches of no snow. Definitely weird with this snow we had yesterday. Even when I headed home from work up in North Cove last night, you could see more brown grass than you could snow. But from about Woodlawn on into my house closer to Marion, the grass was/is completely covered. Had close to 4 inches of snow yesterday morning and I'd venture to say up in North Cove it may have been around 2 inches. That's within a matter of 5 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's not farther south. It's right in line with guidance. Some weenie in south Atlanta posted that. lol yeah. Everything looks good. The storm looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nam is even wetter. Now that's it's colder it's not getting bashed as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nam is even wetter. Now that's it's colder it's not getting bashed as much. nam_24hr_precip_se_10.pnglol yeah as long as it shows what you want it's ok iv though the nam has done very well with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 The short range models are really honing in on higher qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The short range models are really honing in on higher qpf. Modeled cloud level winds have increased some this go around which should squeeze out more moisture for Escarpment and maybe Balsams. Looking at the radar, I'm thinking more is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Modeled cloud level winds have increased some this go around which should squeeze out more moisture for Escarpment and maybe Balsams. Looking at the radar, I'm thinking more is the way to go. yeah Mike this storm looks very healthy and is just starting to hit it's stride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 why would gsp knock totals down when if anything all the models are showing more and heavier precip. how do you figure that. Robert says the storm is getting dangerously strong and that snow totals will need to be adjusted up for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 why would gsp knock totals down when if anything all the models are showing more and heavier precip. how do you figure that. Robert says the storm is getting dangerously strong and that snow totals will need to be adjusted up for most everyone. I wouldn't worry too much about GSP right now. They had me getting little to no snow accumulation yesterday morning and didn't even have an advisory out. I ended up with right at 4 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTWolf Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sorry for the imby post, but I recently moved to Asheville, about a mile south of downtown, so I'm not familiar with the weather patterns here yet. So what is a realistic range for that area based on the latest models? I know Buncombe county has some dynamic geographical features but some maps I've seen have the city getting anywhere from 2-6 inches and the surrounding areas getting hammered. Also, what time do yall expect heavy precip to move into the area? I'm driving back from CLT this afternoon and want to try to time it so I'm not caught in the bad stuff. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nam is even wetter. Now that's it's colder it's not getting bashed as much. I've been in agreement with Robert on this one since Monday. NAM has nailed these southwest lows last few weeks (and has a long history of getting them right too). NAM was bashed all week long and I stood by it. It has been rock-solid all week long with consistency. And then came the bashing about its QPF. Now the QPF is probably going to be right. GFS still in the cigar lounge while everyone else is on the dance floor. HRRR, RAP, and NAM all on the same page. Game on! Now...question is will any of the mountain counties see thundersnow or a mesoscale snow band? I think it's possible, especially for folks closer to the low near the NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sorry for the imby post, but I recently moved to Asheville, about a mile south of downtown, but what is a realistic range for that area based on the latest models? I know Buncombe county has some dynamic geographical features but some maps I've seen have the city getting anywhere from 2-6 inches and the surrounding areas getting hammered. Also, what time do yall expect heavy precip to move into the area? I'm driving back from CLT this afternoon and want to try to time it so I'm not caught in the bad stuff. Thanks!that number is way low in my book. I'll bet 6-10 with a possible 12 if the banding sets up or thundersnow happens. a storm like this plus it is trending nw a little on most models which puts areas n and west of the strorm in more precip. how can gsp have number like 2 inches even in there with a storm like this, amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 that number is way low in my book. I'll bet 6-10 with a possible 12 if the banding sets up or thundersnow happens. a storm like this plus it is trending nw a little on most models which puts areas n and west of the strorm in more precip. It's going to be a very heavy and wet snow. Need to trim back totals to account for this, which is why I am sticking with 5-8" for the Asheville area. Less to the north, more to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 I've been in agreement with Robert on this one since Monday. NAM has nailed these southwest lows last few weeks (and has a long history of getting them right too). NAM was bashed all week long and I stood by it. It has been rock-solid all week long with consistency. And then came the bashing about its QPF. Now the QPF is probably going to be right. GFS still in the cigar lounge while everyone else is on the dance floor. HRRR, RAP, and NAM all on the same page. Game on! Now...question is will any of the mountain counties see thundersnow or a mesoscale snow band? I think it's possible, especially for folks closer to the low near the NC/SC border. Great analysis HT! Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTWolf Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's going to be a very heavy and wet snow. Need to trim back totals to account for this, which is why I am sticking with 5-8" for the Asheville area. Less to the north, more to the south. Thanks guys. I'd be ecstatic with 5" on the low end! Any ideas as to when the precip is gonna start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Gfs and hires gfs continue to show meager totals in the mtns and an impressive downsloping minimum in the Lee of the blue ridge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not that it matters too much since it's a global but the cmc has up to .5 in Asheville, and .65 down this way. The nam, sref, rgem, and now rap is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Gfs and hires gfs continue to show meager totals in the mtns and an impressive downsloping minimum in the Lee of the blue ridge... At this point, it's an outlier to the rest. I am in complete agreement with HT above. The HRRR, RAP, and NAM all on the same page. Let's get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wonder if that system dropping in from the Midwest will affect the mountains on the tailend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wonder if that system dropping in from the Midwest will affect the mountains on the tailend.I talked about that earlier in the thread. I think there will be enhancement behind the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking at the radar this thing is a monster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Obs from the Coast for you fellas, 43° (about 9 degrees cooler than forecast) Heavy Rain with Thunder. MOB had no mention of it in the AFD or grids. Don't think it's enough to rob you guys but, imo does show the system is probably more dynamic than modeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Obs from the Coast for you fellas, 43° (about 9 degrees cooler than forecast) Heavy Rain with Thunder. MOB had no mention of it in the AFD or grids. Don't think it's enough to rob you guys but, imo does show the system is probably more dynamic than modeled! The classic "Rob Job" has crossed my mind this morning watching the precip develop. It might not do much for the core but might limit the northern part of the moisture. Which so happens to be the area that I reside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 I see Gsp have trended back snow totals even more. Might as well put us in an advisory if they keep trending down looks like maybe 2 to 4 inches according to GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I see Gsp have trended back snow totals even more. Might as well put us in an advisory if they keep trending down looks like maybe 2 to 4 inches according to GSP. I don't understand their snow maps with all models moving north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I see Gsp have trended back snow totals even more. Might as well put us in an advisory if they keep trending down looks like maybe 2 to 4 inches according to GSP. Same here. Even saw some 1 to 2 for the northern mtns. Looks like this storm is going south and east. Oh well, glad our central peeps are going to get a good one. Maybe we can score in March before we wrap this winter up. Stay positive.!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What is up with the ARW members of the SREF? Skews the KAVL average up to almost 10 inches. Without it it's 6.6 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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