franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Seems like a good call. Yeah if we can get that band to come thru hopefully with a closed upper low we can grab a few more inches with maybe some thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GSP map. http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Again, I know Asheville is between mtn ranges... yada, yada, but the models almost always forecast a minima here. Every time. While long term, that is true. But, it seems as if in the models to show it every single time. I guess we will see if that proves to be accurate this time. It wasn't last night. Anyway, here is hoping we all get at least 6 inches. That in my mind is where a big snow begins. Good luck everybody. No need to worry about that "snow hole" this time either. There is more than enough synoptics and moisture to make sure everyone gets a decent amount. In fact, I am shocked GSP bought that hook, line and sinker. They even have places in the southern Upstate with more snow than AVL. I can tell you now that ain't gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here is my call map on this one. I'm in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here is my call map on this one, totals will be higher if we get the deformation band going good imo. After how much better you called the last one, compared to everyone else, I'm in. Plus, I'm in the pink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No need to worry about that "snow hole" this time either. There is more than enough synoptics and moisture to make sure everyone gets a decent amount. In fact, I am shocked GSP bought that hook, line and sinker. They even have places in the southern Upstate with more snow than AVL. I can tell you now that ain't gonna happen. Thank you! That makes me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks guys, I really like the setup on this one. I just wish it would hang around a little longer. I am really hoping for some thunder snow and a chance for a Cantore spoof! Fingers crossed for that deformation band to be strong and slam WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GSP map. http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Again, I know Asheville is between mtn ranges... yada, yada, but the models almost always forecast a minima here. Every time. While long term, that is true. But, it seems as if in the models to show it every single time. I guess we will see if that proves to be accurate this time. It wasn't last night. Anyway, here is hoping we all get at least 6 inches. That in my mind is where a big snow begins. Good luck everybody. yes that is very much low end I would say more like 6-10, if the deformation band comes thru like some are saying I bet we reach close to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No need to worry about that "snow hole" this time either. There is more than enough synoptics and moisture to make sure everyone gets a decent amount. In fact, I am shocked GSP bought that hook, line and sinker. They even have places in the southern Upstate with more snow than AVL. I can tell you now that ain't gonna happen. I'm thinking there will be a somewhat of a local minimum in the Asheville area. There is a fairly strong SW wind from 800 mb and higher suggesting there will be some sinking air downstream of the Plott Balsams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm thinking there will be a somewhat of a local minimum in the Asheville area. There is a fairly strong SW wind from 800 mb and higher suggesting there will be some sinking air downstream of the Plott Balsams.how much on your mtn today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 how much on your mtn today? Part of the way up, there was 5 new inches as of 7 AM. I think 2 or 3 more fell after that so that would be about 8"...at the top probably in the 10 to 12" range of new on top of what already there. Currently, the mountain top is inaccessible until further notice.(There is no plowing service.) The next storm could add another foot or so which should just add to the fun. I know of at least one person who has historically traveled by snow shoe from Balsam Gap to near the top to access a vacation home but I would never attempt that myself...3000 feet vertical in snowshoes is no laughing matter! (I do think there is somebody who has a snowmobile that rides around regularly checking on vacation homes when the mountain is snowed in.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks guys, I really like the setup on this one. I just wish it would hang around a little longer. I am really hoping for some thunder snow and a chance for a Cantore spoof! Fingers crossed for that deformation band to be strong and slam WNC.yep I don't want to be greedy but I sure wish this storm would slow a bit and my fingers are also crossed the deformation band comes thru. Roberts map really looks good for the area, hope it comes to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ray just put out a map, seems reasonable. What do yall think. http://mitchellweather.com/Special+Weather+Graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks very reasonable to me SnoJoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ray just put out a map, seems reasonable. What do yall think. http://mitchellweather.com/Special+Weather+Graphic Reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ray just put out a map, seems reasonable. What do yall think. http://mitchellweather.com/Special+Weather+Graphic Reasonable but I'd debate that they were on the low side for many, especially central NC. He really missed the event last night and didn't bite on this storm until really late so I'm thinking he continues the trend and low balls this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks fine for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks fine for now.I'm not buying the 4km NAM total snow depth image you posted in the main thread. Yes temps are marginal but this is heavy rates falling overnight, seen totals really rack up with this kind of setup. To each their own though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not buying the 4km NAM total snow depth image you posted in the main thread. Yes temps are marginal but this is heavy rates falling overnight, seen totals really rack up with this kind of setup. To each their own though. Yeah with snow still on the ground. We pound and we add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think down here at the top of the escarpment we might even jackpot at close to 12". Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking at model soundings this morning on the 06Z NAM which shows a significant decrease in wind speeds at the lower levels compared to some previous runs. I'm seeing generally less than the 20 knots threshold needed to observe noticeable orographics enhancements so the Balsams and Escarpment probably won't see any bonus snows if this trend continues. There is still the rather classic low level turning with winds out of the SE at the Escarpment but SW at the ridge tops in the Balsams but need beefier winds to see much added effect. I assume the 12Z run will tell the tale. The Escarpment should still do okay with the cooler temps and being closer to the low track than some of the further inland valley locations like say Waynesville for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking at model soundings this morning on the 06Z NAM which shows a significant decrease in wind speeds at the lower levels compared to some previous runs. I'm seeing generally less than the 20 knots threshold needed to observe noticeable orographics enhancements so the Balsams and Escarpment probably won't see any bonus snows if this trend continues. There is still the rather classic low level turning with winds out of the SE at the Escarpment but SW at the ridge tops in the Balsams but need beefier winds to see much added effect. I assume the 12Z run will tell the tale. The Escarpment should still do okay with the cooler temps and being closer to the low track than some of the further inland valley locations like say Waynesville for instance.hey Mike, are you in the area, or Michigan? Any luck with selling your property? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not buying the 4km NAM total snow depth image you posted in the main thread. Yes temps are marginal but this is heavy rates falling overnight, seen totals really rack up with this kind of setup. To each their own though. I have no total confidence it will be right, but documented it to study if the Hires Nam is actually calling the surface correctly. It will be interesting today to see if the HRRR agrees. The mountains will be fine and it will all stick but the hires Nam says not so sure in the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 hey Mike, are you in the area, or Michigan? Any luck with selling your property? I'm in Michigan right now trying to cope with the brutal Winter here. There is one very interested party in the mountain top but things will need to thaw out on the mountain before it can progress any further. Still 50/50 on whether to keep it or sell it. I patiently waiting for the first warm weekend of the season to head down for a few days to enjoy the place and soak in the early spring time air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm ready to get this thing started. From past experiences, totals will be all over the place. I've seen 4 inches forecasted and end up with 10. Of course, it can be the other way around too. Good luck everyone, hope we all get plastered. Cold - 16.8 Partly Cloudy Wind - 6/G8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ray's updated map from early this morning. I like your map a lot, Ward. Here's hoping it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yep I'm ready to get this this thing going. I'm tired of watching all these models run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 First sprinkles starting down here on the coast. My thoughts are.....a decent thump of snow for all. The southern escarpment looks to be the jackpot with some 10" totals possible. As you go north, I think higher ratios will add to some totals along with flow snow on the back side. As always with Southern snows & throwing in Mnt micro climates there will be winners and losers but it's gonna be a fun ride. Good luck to all of you, be safe, & remember to post plenty of pics and vids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 First sprinkles starting down here on the coast. My thoughts are.....a decent thump of snow for all. The southern escarpment looks to be the jackpot with some 10" totals possible. As you go north, I think higher ratios will add to some totals along with flow snow on the back side. As always with Southern snows & throwing in Mnt micro climates there will be winners and losers but it's gonna be a fun ride. Good luck to all of you, be safe, & remember to post plenty of pics and vids!same thinking Don. I was going to add that there looks to be a little impulse right behind this system coming from the north that will really inhance the snow across the mountains. Not sure if many has picked up up that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 iv noticed GSP has trimmed back our snow totals overnight. I think that we will be fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What do yall think of everyone's belief that the low is much further south that projected? Is that true or wish casting? If it is then that isn't good news for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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