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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

GSP map. http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png

 

Again, I know Asheville is between mtn ranges... yada, yada, but the models almost always forecast a minima here. Every time. While long term, that is true. But, it seems as if in the models to show it every single time. I guess we will see if that proves to be accurate this time. It wasn't last night.

 

Anyway, here is hoping we all get at least 6 inches. That in my mind is where a big snow begins. Good luck everybody.

 

No need to worry about that "snow hole" this time either.  There is more than enough synoptics and moisture to make sure everyone gets a decent amount.  In fact, I am shocked GSP bought that hook, line and sinker.  They even have places in the southern Upstate with more snow than AVL.  I can tell you now that ain't gonna happen.

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
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No need to worry about that "snow hole" this time either.  There is more than enough synoptics and moisture to make sure everyone gets a decent amount.  In fact, I am shocked GSP bought that hook, line and sinker.  They even have places in the southern Upstate with more snow than AVL.  I can tell you now that ain't gonna happen.

 

Thank you!  That makes me feel better. 

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

GSP map. http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png

 

Again, I know Asheville is between mtn ranges... yada, yada, but the models almost always forecast a minima here. Every time. While long term, that is true. But, it seems as if in the models to show it every single time. I guess we will see if that proves to be accurate this time. It wasn't last night.

 

Anyway, here is hoping we all get at least 6 inches. That in my mind is where a big snow begins. Good luck everybody.

yes that is very much low end I would say more like 6-10, if the deformation band comes thru like some are saying I bet we reach close to 10.
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MikeGold

MikeGold

Posted
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No need to worry about that "snow hole" this time either.  There is more than enough synoptics and moisture to make sure everyone gets a decent amount.  In fact, I am shocked GSP bought that hook, line and sinker.  They even have places in the southern Upstate with more snow than AVL.  I can tell you now that ain't gonna happen.

 

I'm thinking there will be a somewhat of a local minimum in the Asheville area.   There is a fairly strong SW wind from 800 mb and higher suggesting there will be some sinking air downstream of the Plott Balsams.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

Posted
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how much on your mtn today?

 Part of the way up, there was 5 new inches as of 7 AM.  I think 2 or 3 more fell after that so that would be about 8"...at the top probably in the 10 to 12" range of new on top of what already there.  Currently, the mountain top is inaccessible until further notice.(There is no plowing service.)  The next storm could add another foot or so which should just add to the fun.  I know of at least one person who has historically traveled by snow shoe from Balsam Gap to near the top to access a vacation home but I would never attempt that myself...3000 feet vertical in snowshoes is no laughing matter! :) (I do think there is somebody who has a snowmobile that rides around regularly checking on vacation homes when the mountain is snowed in.)

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
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Thanks guys, I really like the setup on this one.  I just wish it would hang around a little longer.  I am really hoping for some thunder snow and a chance for a Cantore spoof!  Fingers crossed for that deformation band to be strong and slam WNC.

yep I don't want to be greedy but I sure wish this storm would slow a bit and my fingers are also crossed the deformation band comes thru. Roberts map really looks good for the area, hope it comes to be true.
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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

Posted
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Ray just put out a map, seems reasonable. What do yall think.

http://mitchellweather.com/Special+Weather+Graphic

Reasonable but I'd debate that they were on the low side for many, especially central NC. He really missed the event last night and didn't bite on this storm until really late so I'm thinking he continues the trend and low balls this one as well.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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Looking at model soundings this morning on the 06Z NAM which shows a significant decrease in wind speeds at the lower levels compared to some previous runs.  I'm seeing generally less than the 20 knots threshold needed to observe noticeable orographics enhancements so the Balsams and Escarpment probably won't see any bonus snows if this trend continues.  There is still the rather classic low level turning with winds out of the SE at the Escarpment but SW at the ridge tops in the Balsams but need beefier winds to see much added effect.  I assume the 12Z run will tell the tale. The Escarpment should still do okay with the cooler temps and being closer to the low track than some of the further inland valley locations like say Waynesville for instance.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

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Looking at model soundings this morning on the 06Z NAM which shows a significant decrease in wind speeds at the lower levels compared to some previous runs. I'm seeing generally less than the 20 knots threshold needed to observe noticeable orographics enhancements so the Balsams and Escarpment probably won't see any bonus snows if this trend continues. There is still the rather classic low level turning with winds out of the SE at the Escarpment but SW at the ridge tops in the Balsams but need beefier winds to see much added effect. I assume the 12Z run will tell the tale. The Escarpment should still do okay with the cooler temps and being closer to the low track than some of the further inland valley locations like say Waynesville for instance.

hey Mike, are you in the area, or Michigan? Any luck with selling your property?
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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
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I'm not buying the 4km NAM total snow depth image you posted in the main thread. Yes temps are marginal but this is heavy rates falling overnight, seen totals really rack up with this kind of setup. To each their own though.

I have no total confidence it will be right, but documented it to study if the Hires Nam is actually calling the surface correctly. It will be interesting today to see if the HRRR agrees.

The mountains will be fine and it will all stick but the hires Nam says not so sure in the Piedmont.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

Posted
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hey Mike, are you in the area, or Michigan? Any luck with selling your property?

 

I'm in Michigan right now trying to cope with the brutal Winter here.  There is one very interested party in the mountain top but things will need to thaw out on the mountain before it can progress any further.  Still 50/50 on whether to keep it or sell it.  I patiently waiting for the first warm weekend of the season to head down for a few days to enjoy the place and soak in the early spring time air!

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
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First sprinkles starting down here on the coast. My thoughts are.....a decent thump of snow for all. The southern escarpment looks to be the jackpot with some 10" totals possible. As you go north, I think higher ratios will add to some totals along with flow snow on the back side. As always with Southern snows & throwing in Mnt micro climates there will be winners and losers but it's gonna be a fun ride. Good luck to all of you, be safe, & remember to post plenty of pics and vids!

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Met1985

Met1985

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First sprinkles starting down here on the coast. My thoughts are.....a decent thump of snow for all. The southern escarpment looks to be the jackpot with some 10" totals possible. As you go north, I think higher ratios will add to some totals along with flow snow on the back side. As always with Southern snows & throwing in Mnt micro climates there will be winners and losers but it's gonna be a fun ride. Good luck to all of you, be safe, & remember to post plenty of pics and vids!

same thinking Don. I was going to add that there looks to be a little impulse right behind this system coming from the north that will really inhance the snow across the mountains. Not sure if many has picked up up that.
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