HurricaneTracker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This is very fascinating... Wow! Incredibly robust overnight snow event. Suspect there will be some school issues in the morning. Seems no model is really handling the interaction of the incoming wave with the jet streak and wedge front. HRRR should be fairly decent since features are all large scale. Interesting trends this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS...arrives at the party with an hour to spare. Zero lead time on this overnight wave from the GFS. It may be been upgraded but they didn't fix its old biases. Also for the Wednesday storm...it's showing its old bias of poor southern stream handling of waves. This is a bias that is well-documented. It's why WxSouth says NAM is best with ULL's from the southwest. Despite what you may read in the main thread for the midweek storm, NAM, SREF and Euro all playing the same game. GFS, as indicated by its poor forecast for even tonight's event, should be safely discarded. I am willing to bet you...it will be the last one at the party...again. good analysis HT. I think all systems are go for both events. Right know I love being were we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wow! Incredibly robust overnight snow event. Suspect there will be some school issues in the morning. Seems no model is really handling the interaction of the incoming wave with the jet streak and wedge front. HRRR should be fairly decent since features are all large scale. Interesting trends this evening. Yeah that's a great thump of snow for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Also we have steady light snow falling know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Look like there are some bands moving eastward from SW NC. Something to watch, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like the radar is fixing to light up from both sides! Wooooo! This is what I've been waiting for. Still steady snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just started snowing in Asheville. A little early it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 One last obs before bed. Snow is picking up with better flake size. A nice dusting on everything already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Steady light snow (Mcdowell County) 29/19 good dusting going on a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wow we are getting hammered! Already 2.5 inches and just hammering away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I see gsp went to a warning today and watch for Wednesday night into Thursday. Smart move. I like my call of 3 to 6 inches. Ward your map makes you look like a genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I see gsp went to a warning today and watch for Wednesday night into Thursday. Smart move. I like my call of 3 to 6 inches. Ward your map makes you look like a genius. Lol thanks Met! We have 2" on the ground so far here in Candler. Glad everyone is getting accumulation, it has been a while! I think your 3-6 call is spot on man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 They need to upgrade transylvania we have 4 inches and it's still pourin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Lol thanks Met! We have 2" on the ground so far here in Candler. Glad everyone is getting accumulation, it has been a while! I think your 3-6 call is spot on man!congrats bro! Man is it beautiful outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 They need to upgrade transylvania we have 4 inches and it's still pourin. yeah they are playing catch up here in the mountains. Congrates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Been snowing heavily here too you guys! Didn't see this event working out here and I've been pleasantly surprised. Now lets get the big one in the next couple of days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 We have about 2 inches and it's only been light for the past 30 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 2 inches here also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 4" in Graham County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seaduck Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just under BR Parkway near Mills River and we have 4" with it still coming down. For once the 1/2" forecast worked in our favor. Hopefully a repeat in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Seems pretty uniform. Moderate snow here and we also have about 4 inches. Looks to snow for another couple of hours so maybe 5 or 6 total. A nice little surprise to say the least !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 We have about 3 inches and rates finally picked up. Looks like we missed out on the heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sounds like a nice surprise event for all of you guys......congrats! Bigger things coming down the pike too, and just to think a bunch of you were ready to give up on Winter & call for a Spring torch a few days ago. HA!!! From this to this The Plume Viewer for Asheville & Franklin are things of beauty this morning. Here is the Morning disco from the GSP fellas. Lot's of QPF details to work out but the rest of the ingredients are there. Make sure to post pics for the less fortunate (Me!) .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WE MIGHT HAVE AN EVEN MORE INTERESTING STORMTO DEAL WITH AFTER WE ARE FINISHED WITH THIS MORNINGS EVENT. OURFOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULFOF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG WAVE MOVING EASTACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS TOTHE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS AT CROSSES THE DEEP SOUTHTHROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING...AND ISNOW ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WHAT IT HAS BEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. THEMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A RAPID INCREASE INFORCING ACROSS NE GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE WRNCAROLINAS MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLED JET INTERACTIONSHOULD BRING EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVEMOVES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD ALSO KICK IN BYAROUND 00Z THURSDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP NEWDSTEADILY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL FINE TUNE THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TOGO WITH A CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POP WITH A NW TO SE GRADIENT FORWEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF EARLY THURSDAYMORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THE EXIT OF THESTRONGER FORCING AFTER 06Z. PARTIAL THICKNESS AND FCST SOUNDINGSONCE AGAIN SUGGEST PRECIP TYPES LOOK TO BE A RAIN VERSUS SNOWSCENARIO...WITH SFC WET BULB TEMPS PLAYING A BIG PART. THINK THESTRONG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME DYNAMIC COOLING THAT WILL HELPKEEP PROFILES BELOW FREEZING SUCH THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL FALLAS SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT MAYBE THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND LAKELANDS OF SC.THE FCST LEANS MORE ON THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO DAMPEN SOMEOF THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF THE LOW TRACK AND NRN EXTENT OF THEPRECIP SHIELD. THE FCST ALSO BORROWS HEAVILY FROM THE QPF GUIDANCEISSUED BY WPC...AND ONCE THAT IS CONVERTED TO SNOWFALL...WE HAVE AFCST THAT SUGGESTS WE WILL REACH 12HR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALLACROSS ALMOST ALL THE FCST AREA. THE PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM THE 03ZSREF ARE COMPELLING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERSHAVE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AT MOST SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY. THEREARE A FEW CAVEATS. THE FCST STILL ASSUMES THAT COLD AIR WILL ARRIVEFROM THE N/NW AS THE PRECIP SPREADS UP FROM THE SW AS THE BOUNDARYLAYER ALSO COOLS WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THE COLD AIR IS DELAYED...MORE OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ALONG/S OF I-85. IF THE TRACKOF THE LOW REMAINS TOO FAR S...THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR WILL NOTGET SUFFICIENT PRECIP TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. THERE WILL PROBABLYBE A 50 MILE WIDE BAND WHERE SNOWFALL IS MAXIMIZED...RUNNING WSW TOENE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. ALL THAT ASIDE...THINK THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FORTHE ENTIRE FCST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 4 inches here and counting! What a wonderful snow. Just on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's flat out put in down right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's flat out put in down right now.yeah we have had our best rates since the Rader looked less impressive. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah guys this is what we have been waiting for. Nice rates here also. Still piling up. Just think this second storm could be double than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah guys this is what we have been waiting for. Nice rates here also. Still piling up. Just think this second storm could be double than this.I hope so. We really need the nam and sref to verify to get a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I hope so. We really need the nam and sref to verify to get a decent event. so far the Nam has done very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Congrats guys. Got almost three inches here at my house. Most of Mcdowell picked up around two to three. Roads are awful ive ran ten calls so far this morning pager bein going nonstop since 6am. People go way to fast for conditions, blows me away sometimes...be careful out there guys. God Bless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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