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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

This is very fascinating...

aLxWd2i.gif

Wow! Incredibly robust overnight snow event. Suspect there will be some school issues in the morning. Seems no model is really handling the interaction of the incoming wave with the jet streak and wedge front. HRRR should be fairly decent since features are all large scale. Interesting trends this evening.

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Met1985

Met1985

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GFS...arrives at the party with an hour to spare. Zero lead time on this overnight wave from the GFS. It may be been upgraded but they didn't fix its old biases.

Also for the Wednesday storm...it's showing its old bias of poor southern stream handling of waves. This is a bias that is well-documented. It's why WxSouth says NAM is best with ULL's from the southwest.

Despite what you may read in the main thread for the midweek storm, NAM, SREF and Euro all playing the same game. GFS, as indicated by its poor forecast for even tonight's event, should be safely discarded. I am willing to bet you...it will be the last one at the party...again.

good analysis HT. I think all systems are go for both events. Right know I love being were we are.
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Met1985

Met1985

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Wow! Incredibly robust overnight snow event. Suspect there will be some school issues in the morning. Seems no model is really handling the interaction of the incoming wave with the jet streak and wedge front. HRRR should be fairly decent since features are all large scale. Interesting trends this evening.

Yeah that's a great thump of snow for the mountains.
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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

I see gsp went to a warning today and watch for Wednesday night into Thursday. Smart move. I like my call of 3 to 6 inches. Ward your map makes you look like a genius.

 

Lol thanks Met!  We have 2" on the ground so far here in Candler.  Glad everyone is getting accumulation, it has been a while!  I think your 3-6 call is spot on man!

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Sounds like a nice surprise event for all of you guys......congrats! Bigger things coming down the pike too, and just to think a bunch of you were ready to give up on Winter & call for a Spring torch a few days ago. HA!!! From this  :axe: to this  :snowing: 

 

The Plume Viewer for Asheville & Franklin are things of beauty this morning. Here is the Morning disco from the GSP fellas. Lot's of QPF details to work out but the rest of the ingredients are there. Make sure to post pics for the less fortunate (Me!)

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WE MIGHT HAVE AN EVEN MORE INTERESTING STORM
TO DEAL WITH AFTER WE ARE FINISHED WITH THIS MORNINGS EVENT. OUR
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS TO
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS AT CROSSES THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING...AND IS
NOW ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WHAT IT HAS BEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A RAPID INCREASE IN
FORCING ACROSS NE GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE WRN
CAROLINAS MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLED JET INTERACTION
SHOULD BRING EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD ALSO KICK IN BY
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP NEWD
STEADILY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL FINE TUNE THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO
GO WITH A CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POP WITH A NW TO SE GRADIENT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THE EXIT OF THE
STRONGER FORCING AFTER 06Z. PARTIAL THICKNESS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST PRECIP TYPES LOOK TO BE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW
SCENARIO...WITH SFC WET BULB TEMPS PLAYING A BIG PART. THINK THE
STRONG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME DYNAMIC COOLING THAT WILL HELP
KEEP PROFILES BELOW FREEZING SUCH THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL FALL
AS SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT MAYBE THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND LAKELANDS OF SC.
THE FCST LEANS MORE ON THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO DAMPEN SOME
OF THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF THE LOW TRACK AND NRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD. THE FCST ALSO BORROWS HEAVILY FROM THE QPF GUIDANCE
ISSUED BY WPC...AND ONCE THAT IS CONVERTED TO SNOWFALL...WE HAVE A
FCST THAT SUGGESTS WE WILL REACH 12HR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL
ACROSS ALMOST ALL THE FCST AREA. THE PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM THE 03Z
SREF ARE COMPELLING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS
HAVE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AT MOST SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY. THERE
ARE A FEW CAVEATS. THE FCST STILL ASSUMES THAT COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE N/NW AS THE PRECIP SPREADS UP FROM THE SW AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO COOLS WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THE COLD AIR IS DELAYED...
MORE OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ALONG/S OF I-85. IF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW REMAINS TOO FAR S...THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR WILL NOT
GET SUFFICIENT PRECIP TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE A 50 MILE WIDE BAND WHERE SNOWFALL IS MAXIMIZED...RUNNING WSW TO
ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. ALL THAT ASIDE...
THINK THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

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