Southern Apps. Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks like an average of 7.29 inches (but including a little over an inch from tonight/tomorrow). Low is .98 inches and high is 17.29 inches. Wow, that is better than I was expecting. Thanks for looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GSP afternoon disco.... .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTING WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY POLAR FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING FORECASTING THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TUE NIGHT THROUGH PERHAPS THE BULK OF WED. DURING THAT TIME...A MORE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GOM ON WED WHICH IS FORECAST TO SCOOT EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY THU. AS THE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH PRECIP SPREADING QUICKLY OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS CERTAINLY MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT THAT PRECIP WIL OCCUR...SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS CONSIDERABLY INTO THE CATEGORICAL/LIKELY RANGE SUBJECT TO COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS AS USUAL TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS MOST NOTABLY IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHHERN PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN FROZEN PRECIP AND RAIN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM SHOW SOME SUBTLE DETAILS IN THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT WARMER. ALSO THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE QPF ENVELOP. WPC`S DAY3 FORECAST IS FAVORING HIGHER QPF BASED ON ENSEMBLES WHICH TRANSLATES INTO WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE SREF PLUMES THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS. FOR INSTANCE AT CLT...THERE IS A RANGE FROM OVER 10 INCHES TO ESSENTIALLY A DUSTING WITH THE MEAN SOMEWHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OR SO. THE CONCERN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AS MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S WED AFTERNOON. ALSO...ALL THE COOLING WILL BE BE MOSTLY DYNAMICALLY INDUCED WITH NO COLD HIGH SITUATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SURFACE WET BULBS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AT 00Z THU... SLOWLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO THE MID 30S SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTY DURING WED NIGHT. IN THE ABSENCE OF A WARM NOSE...SNOW GENERALLY OCCURS WHEN SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 33 DEGREES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEMDONT WILL BE USED UP AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. ALSO...WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN QUESTION... DO NOT PLAN ON ANY WINTER STORM WATCH HEADLINES YET. IF THE THE LOWER GFS QPF WERE TO VERIFY... WARNING LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY ON THU EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MOST FIELDS. Of course they are not dismissing GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Of course they are not dismissing GFS... To be fair the GFS is holding firm. Hasn't moved much in the past 4 runs (though it has weakened some). The good news is it's out in left field compared to most of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah guys I am onboard with the threat of snow tonight into tomorrow (ha started a thread for it) and I think 1"-2" is certainly doable in the French Broad valley as others have stated. As far as Wednesday night into Thursday, these ULL are like rolling the dice. The plumes that give us +12" are seeing us get hammered by a deformation band while the lower end plumes see this staying to far south. I think we should be good for 3"-6" in the valley maybe more if things trend better. I like where we sit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What happened to the thread? Edit: I guess your referring to the current one. Lol my bad. Having me a senior moment. Haha I do like the looks for tonight/tomorrow better look than what we had over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah guys I am onboard with the threat of snow tonight into tomorrow (ha started a thread for it) and I think 1"-2" is certainly doable in the French Broad valley as others have stated. As far as Wednesday night into Thursday, these ULL are like rolling the dice. The plumes that give us +12" are seeing us get hammered by a deformation band while the lower end plumes see this staying to far south. I think we should be good for 3"-6" in the valley maybe more if things trend better. I like where we sit though. Yeah, I'm moving over there now. Didn't see that one was up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Probably virga but some light returns are beginning to show up around haywood, buncombe, and Transylvania counties. Best of luck guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Been flurrying here all day but nothing much to show for it. Looks to me that tomorrow might be an AVL south storm but maybe I can get some in here for Wed. Be nice to have a decent snow for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah guys I am onboard with the threat of snow tonight into tomorrow (ha started a thread for it) and I think 1"-2" is certainly doable in the French Broad valley as others have stated. As far as Wednesday night into Thursday, these ULL are like rolling the dice. The plumes that give us +12" are seeing us get hammered by a deformation band while the lower end plumes see this staying to far south. I think we should be good for 3"-6" in the valley maybe more if things trend better. I like where we sit though.do you look for this to tick nw even more tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Probably virga but some light returns are beginning to show up around haywood, buncombe, and Transylvania counties. Best of luck guys! Not virga at all here in Haywood. We are seeing some light s o here just plowing around. As Joe mentioned we have been seeing snow virtually all day. Gsp calling for some heavy snowfall tomorrow. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 More BUFKIT fun: ~1.3 inch of snow through 20z HRRR run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Ok the models at 18z look very agressive. The gfs is very wet. I am calling for 3 to 6 inche's for the southourn apps with tonights storm approaching. I like the radar, I like the temps and I like we're we are sitting. I know this is gutsy or stupid but I think this little system will be an overachiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Ok the models at 18z look very agressive. The gfs is very wet. I am calling for 3 to 6 inche's for the southourn apps with tonights storm approaching. I like the radar, I like the temps and I like we're we are sitting. I know this is gutsy or stupid but I think this little system will be an overachiever.it would be nice. GFS went from nothing to warning criteria in 2 runs lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Ok the models at 18z look very agressive. The gfs is very wet. I am calling for 3 to 6 inche's for the southourn apps with tonights storm approaching. I like the radar, I like the temps and I like we're we are sitting. I know this is gutsy or stupid but I think this little system will be an overachiever. I thought for a minute we were discussing the Thursday storm and was wondering if I was looking at the same GFS as you guys...multiple storm problems...I agree that I think tonight's event is going to be a surprise for many in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS keeps sticking to its guns to leave us snowless for Wednesday/Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just finished up my snowfall map for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just finished up my snowfall map for this one. Nice map, Ward! I certainly hope you're right, but I'm leaning more towards the 1-2 range for the Asheville area. That said, the trends are in our favor leading right into the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just finished up my snowfall map for this one. Nice map Ward! I like it! Snow is picking up a bit here and boy is it cold! Temp down to 22 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Thanks guys! My fingers are crossed, glad to see you already getting flakes Met! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 it would be nice. GFS went from nothing to warning criteria in 2 runs lol.. Just a thought, but if the gfs didn't sniff this storm out till now, possibly it will trend better for wed/thurs. Wishcasting here but, interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 We have a dusting here at home. Still snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just finished up my snowfall map for this one. Very nice map. I hope it verifies, Forecasting right now is challenging to be sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Going to have to disagree with Ray on his thinking for Wednesday night, he doesn't even mention the possibility of a wetter solution. Seems as if he's going with flurries lol he would be wise to mention the possibility of a northern trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Going to have to disagree with Ray on his thinking for Wednesday night, he doesn't even mention the possibility of a wetter solution. Seems as if he's going with flurries lol he would be wise to mention the possibility of a northern trend. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1424736822.957365.jpg I saw that. He usually updates around 6 after he see the 18z runs, so I don't know what he's thinking. Still a light flurry here. Cold, 19.2 with a nice breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I saw that. He usually updates around 6 after he see the 18z runs, so I don't know what he's thinking. Still a light flurry here. Cold, 19.2 with a nice breeze. Maybe not seeing that NW shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Snow starting to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Maybe not seeing that NW shift? Could be. Most likely it was one of his staff doing the update. We'll see in his morning forecast, that he writes. Snow starting to fall. Woot. Good luck man. You could lollipop this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think your map may not be far off, Ward. The GFS is coming in even better with >.25 inches qpf for almost everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think your map may not be far off, Ward. The GFS is coming in even better with >.25 inches qpf for almost everyone. GFS...arrives at the party with an hour to spare. Zero lead time on this overnight wave from the GFS. It may be been upgraded but they didn't fix its old biases. Also for the Wednesday storm...it's showing its old bias of poor southern stream handling of waves. This is a bias that is well-documented. It's why WxSouth says NAM is best with ULL's from the southwest. Despite what you may read in the main thread for the midweek storm, NAM, SREF and Euro all playing the same game. GFS, as indicated by its poor forecast for even tonight's event, should be safely discarded. I am willing to bet you...it will be the last one at the party...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This is very fascinating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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