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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

GSP afternoon disco....

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTING WITH THE

QUASI-STATIONARY POLAR FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING

FORECASTING THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT RANGE

WILL BE BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO

THE AREA FORM THE WEST AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST

COAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TUE

NIGHT THROUGH PERHAPS THE BULK OF WED. DURING THAT TIME...A MORE

POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW

INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GOM ON WED WHICH IS FORECAST

TO SCOOT EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND THEN INTO

THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY THU. AS THE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD...UPPER

DIVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS NE GA AND THE

WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH PRECIP SPREADING QUICKLY OVER THE REGION FROM

SOUTH LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS CERTAINLY MODEL CONSENSUS AT

THIS POINT THAT PRECIP WIL OCCUR...SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS

CONSIDERABLY INTO THE CATEGORICAL/LIKELY RANGE SUBJECT TO

COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS AS USUAL TRYING TO PIN

DOWN THE DETAILS MOST NOTABLY IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE

THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHHERN

PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN FROZEN

PRECIP AND RAIN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM SHOW SOME SUBTLE DETAILS IN

THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT

WARMER. ALSO THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE QPF

ENVELOP. WPC`S DAY3 FORECAST IS FAVORING HIGHER QPF BASED ON

ENSEMBLES WHICH TRANSLATES INTO WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF

THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE SREF PLUMES THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE

MEMBERS. FOR INSTANCE AT CLT...THERE IS A RANGE FROM OVER 10 INCHES

TO ESSENTIALLY A DUSTING WITH THE MEAN SOMEWHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OR

SO. THE CONCERN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL

BE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AS MAX TEMPS

SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S WED AFTERNOON. ALSO...ALL THE COOLING

WILL BE BE MOSTLY DYNAMICALLY INDUCED WITH NO COLD HIGH SITUATED

DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SURFACE WET

BULBS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AT 00Z THU...

SLOWLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO

THE MID 30S SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTY DURING WED NIGHT. IN THE

ABSENCE OF A WARM NOSE...SNOW GENERALLY OCCURS WHEN SURFACE WET BULB

TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 33 DEGREES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS A

GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEMDONT

WILL BE USED UP AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. ALSO...WITH

THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN QUESTION... DO NOT PLAN ON ANY WINTER STORM

WATCH HEADLINES YET. IF THE THE LOWER GFS QPF WERE TO VERIFY...

WARNING LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY ON THU EXCEPT

FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED A MODEL

CONSENSUS FOR MOST FIELDS.

 

Of course they are not dismissing GFS... 

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

Yeah guys I am onboard with the threat of snow tonight into tomorrow (ha started a thread for it) and I think 1"-2" is certainly doable in the French Broad valley as others have stated.  As far as Wednesday night into Thursday, these ULL are like rolling the dice.  The plumes that give us +12" are seeing us get hammered by a deformation band while the lower end plumes see this staying to far south.  I think we should be good for 3"-6" in the valley maybe more if things trend better.  I like where we sit though.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Yeah guys I am onboard with the threat of snow tonight into tomorrow (ha started a thread for it) and I think 1"-2" is certainly doable in the French Broad valley as others have stated.  As far as Wednesday night into Thursday, these ULL are like rolling the dice.  The plumes that give us +12" are seeing us get hammered by a deformation band while the lower end plumes see this staying to far south.  I think we should be good for 3"-6" in the valley maybe more if things trend better.  I like where we sit though.

 

Yeah, I'm moving over there now. Didn't see that one was up!

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

Yeah guys I am onboard with the threat of snow tonight into tomorrow (ha started a thread for it) and I think 1"-2" is certainly doable in the French Broad valley as others have stated.  As far as Wednesday night into Thursday, these ULL are like rolling the dice.  The plumes that give us +12" are seeing us get hammered by a deformation band while the lower end plumes see this staying to far south.  I think we should be good for 3"-6" in the valley maybe more if things trend better.  I like where we sit though.

do you look for this to tick nw even more tomorrow?
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Met1985

Met1985

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Probably virga but some light returns are beginning to show up around haywood, buncombe, and Transylvania counties. Best of luck guys!

Not virga at all here in Haywood. We are seeing some light s o here just plowing around. As Joe mentioned we have been seeing snow virtually all day. Gsp calling for some heavy snowfall tomorrow. Should be interesting.
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Met1985

Met1985

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Ok the models at 18z look very agressive. The gfs is very wet. I am calling for 3 to 6 inche's for the southourn apps with tonights storm approaching. I like the radar, I like the temps and I like we're we are sitting. I know this is gutsy or stupid but I think this little system will be an overachiever.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Ok the models at 18z look very agressive. The gfs is very wet. I am calling for 3 to 6 inche's for the southourn apps with tonights storm approaching. I like the radar, I like the temps and I like we're we are sitting. I know this is gutsy or stupid but I think this little system will be an overachiever.

it would be nice. GFS went from nothing to warning criteria in 2 runs lol..
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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

Ok the models at 18z look very agressive. The gfs is very wet. I am calling for 3 to 6 inche's for the southourn apps with tonights storm approaching. I like the radar, I like the temps and I like we're we are sitting. I know this is gutsy or stupid but I think this little system will be an overachiever.

 

I thought for a minute we were discussing the Thursday storm and was wondering if I was looking at the same GFS as you guys...multiple storm problems...I agree that I think tonight's event is going to be a surprise for many in the morning.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Going to have to disagree with Ray on his thinking for Wednesday night, he doesn't even mention the possibility of a wetter solution. Seems as if he's going with flurries lol he would be wise to mention the possibility of a northern trend. attachicon.gifImageUploadedByTapatalk1424736822.957365.jpg

 

 

I saw that. He usually updates around 6 after he see the 18z runs, so I don't know what he's thinking. 

 

Still a light flurry here. Cold, 19.2 with a nice breeze.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

I think your map may not be far off, Ward. The GFS is coming in even better with >.25 inches qpf for almost everyone.

GFS...arrives at the party with an hour to spare. Zero lead time on this overnight wave from the GFS. It may be been upgraded but they didn't fix its old biases.

Also for the Wednesday storm...it's showing its old bias of poor southern stream handling of waves. This is a bias that is well-documented. It's why WxSouth says NAM is best with ULL's from the southwest.

Despite what you may read in the main thread for the midweek storm, NAM, SREF and Euro all playing the same game. GFS, as indicated by its poor forecast for even tonight's event, should be safely discarded. I am willing to bet you...it will be the last one at the party...again.

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