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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Moonhowl

Moonhowl

Posted
Posted

From NWS GSP forecast discussion; enjoyed the language:

 

THE SREF PLUMES
POINT TO SNOW AS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE FCST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMTS PERHAPS APPROACHING
WARNING CRITERIA. MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE PRECIP
BEGINNING AS RAIN OR SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE
EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THE EXPERIENCED READER UNDERSTANDS THAT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO SNOW
BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING IS USUALLY
A SUCKERS BET. FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE TO ENTERTAIN ISSUING ANY
WEATHER WATCHES ON THIS CYCLE...SO OUR EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE
MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHC
RANGE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AS WE MOVE
FORWARD.

Another tidbit from the discussion:

 

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE
STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO PERHAPS SOME RELIEF IS IN STORE FROM
THIS ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Looks like GSP is entertaining the potential...

 

HWO

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATION OF ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES
AND BALSAM MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...ON TUESDAY
MORNING.
..WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD
NORTHWARD...REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPLY COLD AIR...
SUCH THAT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL MAINLY AS SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
..THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. FUTURE
DEVELOPMENTS WILL DICTATE IF AND WHEN A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Things look excellent for a major snow somewhere in NC and there's no warm nose concerns from 12z NAM soundings this time around. We just need that NW shift on few models toward Euro/NAM combo and we're in business for a hell of storm :)

I do like our chances. This will trend nw and I think we could not be sitting any better.
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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

I do like our chances. This will trend nw and I think we could not be sitting any better.

 

Agreed. Waiting on 12Z Euro to confirm my suspicions...but believe the 12Z NAM had an excellent idea of what will eventually play out and many members of the 12Z GEFS also leaning that direction too. Don't forget, for last week's ice storm, GFS was last model to arrive at the party.  NAM and SREF led the way...

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

And.....there it is.  A nice 2-5" of snow for all of the NC mountains Wednesday night.  Probably best "snowstorm" of the year shaping up this week.

 

Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see 0.5 to 1.5" of snow tonight either (2/23 into 2/24).  ALL models are showing this.  I would anticipate a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight and a Winter Storm Watch to handle the mid-week event being issued with this afternoon's package.

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

And.....there it is.  A nice 2-5" of snow for all of the NC mountains Wednesday night.  Probably best "snowstorm" of the year shaping up this week.

 

Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see 0.5 to 1.5" of snow tonight either (2/23 into 2/24).  ALL models are showing this.  I would anticipate a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight and a Winter Storm Watch to handle the mid-week event being issued with this afternoon's package.

 

There's been relatively little discussion of tonight's system (at least for the NC mountains), but I think it's shaping up to be a nice event in its own right. 

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
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Posted

And.....there it is. A nice 2-5" of snow for all of the NC mountains Wednesday night. Probably best "snowstorm" of the year shaping up this week.

Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see 0.5 to 1.5" of snow tonight either (2/23 into 2/24). ALL models are showing this. I would anticipate a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight and a Winter Storm Watch to handle the mid-week event being issued with this afternoon's package.

Great trends today HT! I do like we're we are sitting.
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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

I have been seeing this being a decent event. The radar looks to be pretty north with precipitation also.

 

Absolutely.  This is gonna catch some (many?) folks off-guard.  Upper-level shortwave over Arkansas right now translates eastward tonight and interacts with what appears to be a wedge boundary moving in from the northeast.  The two features basically "meet" overhead the mountains from midnight to 7am, with a nice blossoming of snow.  Could be widespread 1" amounts - while not a big event, certainly enough to cause travel issues with schools and the morning commute.

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WNC_Fort

WNC_Fort

Posted
Posted

SREF keeps trending upwards on QPF but we all know how that worked out last week

 

AVL up to 7.32 on the SREF mean with several members above 10 inches and one above 20!

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150223&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=AVL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.07918283232745&mLON=-83.61873305664062&mTYP=roadmap

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

SREF keeps trending upwards on QPF but we all know how that worked out last week

 

AVL up to 7.32 on the SREF mean with several members above 10 inches and one above 20!

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150223&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=AVL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.07918283232745&mLON=-83.61873305664062&mTYP=roadmap

 

SREF was very good last week.  It was the first to sniff out the snow to ZR change and then all the operational models followed suit.  QPF may be a tad high, but all in all, I think it's actually quite reliable.  It works pretty well here in the mountains to get an idea of the trends.  SREF is trending wetter and further NW...something we may very well see with the 00Z suite.  Many GEFS and EPS members not too out of line with the SREF either, so I don't see any reason to discount it yet.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

I was hoping to squeeze 2 inches out of the first system but the high res models are showing precipitation drying up in the French broad valley. Fingers crossed.

 

Hi-Res models are showing blossoming snow over the AVL area after midnight.  Very strong signal on many runs of the HRRR this afternoon.  2" might be much, but I think 1" very doable.

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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

Posted
Posted

SREF was very good last week. It was the first to sniff out the snow to ZR change and then all the operational models followed suit. QPF may be a tad high, but all in all, I think it's actually quite reliable. It works pretty well here in the mountains to get an idea of the trends. SREF is trending wetter and further NW...something we may very well see with the 00Z suite. Many GEFS and EPS members not too out of line with the SREF either, so I don't see any reason to discount it yet.

I agree, I remember the SREF being the first model to really move the last system NW. Fingers crossed that it doesn't do it to the drastic amount of last time but we certainly need a good bit more NW for us to cash in on the heaviest totals (speaking for NW NC)

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Although 18z NAM snow map might not be sexy (if you discount tonight's event from overall totals), NAM is still creeping toward us with much heavier QPF. I personally think 15z SREF is overdone as usual, but you do want to see almost all members above 5" so that's a good sign. If I'm forced to forecast for Thursday, it's 3-5" in downtown AVL with higher snow totals on peaks.

 

EDIT: 4km NAM is a nice hit for tonight, though! Look like 4km NAM also hit us even harder for Wednesday/Thursday event, too.

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

Although 18z NAM snow map might not be sexy (if you discount tonight's event from overall totals), NAM is still creeping toward us with much heavier QPF. I personally think 15z SREF is overdone as usual, but you do want to see almost all members above 5" so that's a good sign. If I'm forced to forecast for Thursday, it's 3-5" in downtown AVL with higher snow totals on peaks.

 

EDIT: 4km NAM is a nice hit for tonight, though! Look like 4km NAM also hit us even harder for Wednesday/Thursday event, too.

 

The NAM is definitely taking steps in the right direction:

auPBIG1.gif

 

I also think some people are going to be in for a surprise tomorrow morning around here.

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

Some quick obs here in Hawood. The cloud deck has lowered dramatically to around 3500 feet with a temp 24 degrees with light snow starting to fall.

 

Clouds have definitely thickened here in Asheville. I was driving around a few minutes ago and could have sworn I saw some flakes...could just be wishful thinking though.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

GSP afternoon disco....

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTING WITH THE
QUASI-STATIONARY POLAR FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING
FORECASTING THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT RANGE
WILL BE BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO
THE AREA FORM THE WEST AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TUE
NIGHT THROUGH PERHAPS THE BULK OF WED. DURING THAT TIME...A MORE
POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GOM ON WED WHICH IS FORECAST
TO SCOOT EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND THEN INTO
THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY THU. AS THE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD...UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS NE GA AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH PRECIP SPREADING QUICKLY OVER THE REGION FROM
SOUTH LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS CERTAINLY MODEL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT THAT PRECIP WIL OCCUR...SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE CATEGORICAL/LIKELY RANGE SUBJECT TO
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS AS USUAL TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS MOST NOTABLY IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHHERN
PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN FROZEN
PRECIP AND RAIN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM SHOW SOME SUBTLE DETAILS IN
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT
WARMER. ALSO THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE QPF
ENVELOP. WPC`S DAY3 FORECAST IS FAVORING HIGHER QPF BASED ON
ENSEMBLES WHICH TRANSLATES INTO WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE SREF PLUMES THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MEMBERS. FOR INSTANCE AT CLT...THERE IS A RANGE FROM OVER 10 INCHES
TO ESSENTIALLY A DUSTING WITH THE MEAN SOMEWHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OR
SO. THE CONCERN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AS MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S WED AFTERNOON. ALSO...ALL THE COOLING
WILL BE BE MOSTLY DYNAMICALLY INDUCED WITH NO COLD HIGH SITUATED
DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SURFACE WET
BULBS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AT 00Z THU...
SLOWLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO
THE MID 30S SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTY DURING WED NIGHT. IN THE
ABSENCE OF A WARM NOSE...SNOW GENERALLY OCCURS WHEN SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 33 DEGREES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEMDONT
WILL BE USED UP AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. ALSO...WITH
THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN QUESTION... DO NOT PLAN ON ANY WINTER STORM
WATCH HEADLINES YET. IF THE THE LOWER GFS QPF WERE TO VERIFY...
WARNING LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY ON THU EXCEPT
FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR MOST FIELDS.

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