WxBlue Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 9z SREF look good for AVL, although it's 50/50 between big dogs and little snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 9z SREF look good for AVL, although it's 50/50 between big dogs and little snow...hoping the storm wednesday night ticks north some to put us into the heavy snow band, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 From NWS GSP forecast discussion; enjoyed the language: THE SREF PLUMESPOINT TO SNOW AS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OFTHE FCST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMTS PERHAPS APPROACHINGWARNING CRITERIA. MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE PRECIPBEGINNING AS RAIN OR SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THEEVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THE EXPERIENCED READER UNDERSTANDS THATACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO SNOWBASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING IS USUALLYA SUCKERS BET. FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE TO ENTERTAIN ISSUING ANYWEATHER WATCHES ON THIS CYCLE...SO OUR EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BEMANAGED ACCORDINGLY. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHCRANGE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AS WE MOVEFORWARD.Another tidbit from the discussion: THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGESTARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO PERHAPS SOME RELIEF IS IN STORE FROMTHIS ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks like GSP is entertaining the potential... HWO THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...IN THE FORM OFSNOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NORTHCAROLINA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATION OF ONE OR TWOINCHES OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIESAND BALSAM MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER THEMOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...ON TUESDAYMORNING...WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TOORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. AS THELOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...PRECIPITATION MAY SPREADNORTHWARD...REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY.MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPLY COLD AIR...SUCH THAT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL MAINLY AS SNOW WEDNESDAYNIGHT...THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TOTRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THISTIME...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACKOF THE LOW AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. FUTUREDEVELOPMENTS WILL DICTATE IF AND WHEN A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BEISSUED...FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah it's wait and see but my opinion is to keep calm and watch right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 This morning has been nice with very light snowfall coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Well, look like it's NAM/Euro vs. GFS this time around. Rooting on NAM/Euro solution for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This morning has been nice with very light snowfall coming down. Same here. A nice little dust up. Temps are still falling to. It was 30.8 when I got up and now down to 23.6. In other words, it warmed up for one day just so it could rain !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Same here. A nice little dust up. Temps are still falling to. It was 30.8 when I got up and now down to 23.6. I other words, it warmed up for one day just so it could rain !! lol I know! We have one of the coldest 5 day periods in years and what do we get a rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Things look excellent for a major snow somewhere in NC and there's no warm nose concerns from 12z NAM soundings this time around. We just need that NW shift on few models toward Euro/NAM combo and we're in business for a hell of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Things look excellent for a major snow somewhere in NC and there's no warm nose concerns from 12z NAM soundings this time around. We just need that NW shift on few models toward Euro/NAM combo and we're in business for a hell of storm I do like our chances. This will trend nw and I think we could not be sitting any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I do like our chances. This will trend nw and I think we could not be sitting any better. Agreed. Waiting on 12Z Euro to confirm my suspicions...but believe the 12Z NAM had an excellent idea of what will eventually play out and many members of the 12Z GEFS also leaning that direction too. Don't forget, for last week's ice storm, GFS was last model to arrive at the party. NAM and SREF led the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 And.....there it is. A nice 2-5" of snow for all of the NC mountains Wednesday night. Probably best "snowstorm" of the year shaping up this week. Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see 0.5 to 1.5" of snow tonight either (2/23 into 2/24). ALL models are showing this. I would anticipate a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight and a Winter Storm Watch to handle the mid-week event being issued with this afternoon's package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 And.....there it is. A nice 2-5" of snow for all of the NC mountains Wednesday night. Probably best "snowstorm" of the year shaping up this week. Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see 0.5 to 1.5" of snow tonight either (2/23 into 2/24). ALL models are showing this. I would anticipate a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight and a Winter Storm Watch to handle the mid-week event being issued with this afternoon's package. There's been relatively little discussion of tonight's system (at least for the NC mountains), but I think it's shaping up to be a nice event in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 And.....there it is. A nice 2-5" of snow for all of the NC mountains Wednesday night. Probably best "snowstorm" of the year shaping up this week. Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see 0.5 to 1.5" of snow tonight either (2/23 into 2/24). ALL models are showing this. I would anticipate a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight and a Winter Storm Watch to handle the mid-week event being issued with this afternoon's package. Great trends today HT! I do like we're we are sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 There's been relatively little discussion of tonight's system (at least for the NC mountains), but I think it's shaping up to be a nice event in its own right. I have been seeing this being a decent event. The radar looks to be pretty north with precipitation also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I have been seeing this being a decent event. The radar looks to be pretty north with precipitation also. Absolutely. This is gonna catch some (many?) folks off-guard. Upper-level shortwave over Arkansas right now translates eastward tonight and interacts with what appears to be a wedge boundary moving in from the northeast. The two features basically "meet" overhead the mountains from midnight to 7am, with a nice blossoming of snow. Could be widespread 1" amounts - while not a big event, certainly enough to cause travel issues with schools and the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think things will trend wetter and more NW for Wednesday night. The trends have been there all winter so I don't see them changing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF keeps trending upwards on QPF but we all know how that worked out last week AVL up to 7.32 on the SREF mean with several members above 10 inches and one above 20! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150223&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=AVL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.07918283232745&mLON=-83.61873305664062&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I was hoping to squeeze 2 inches out of the first system but the high res models are showing precipitation drying up in the French broad valley. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF keeps trending upwards on QPF but we all know how that worked out last week AVL up to 7.32 on the SREF mean with several members above 10 inches and one above 20! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150223&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=AVL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.07918283232745&mLON=-83.61873305664062&mTYP=roadmap SREF was very good last week. It was the first to sniff out the snow to ZR change and then all the operational models followed suit. QPF may be a tad high, but all in all, I think it's actually quite reliable. It works pretty well here in the mountains to get an idea of the trends. SREF is trending wetter and further NW...something we may very well see with the 00Z suite. Many GEFS and EPS members not too out of line with the SREF either, so I don't see any reason to discount it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I was hoping to squeeze 2 inches out of the first system but the high res models are showing precipitation drying up in the French broad valley. Fingers crossed. Hi-Res models are showing blossoming snow over the AVL area after midnight. Very strong signal on many runs of the HRRR this afternoon. 2" might be much, but I think 1" very doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF was very good last week. It was the first to sniff out the snow to ZR change and then all the operational models followed suit. QPF may be a tad high, but all in all, I think it's actually quite reliable. It works pretty well here in the mountains to get an idea of the trends. SREF is trending wetter and further NW...something we may very well see with the 00Z suite. Many GEFS and EPS members not too out of line with the SREF either, so I don't see any reason to discount it yet. I agree, I remember the SREF being the first model to really move the last system NW. Fingers crossed that it doesn't do it to the drastic amount of last time but we certainly need a good bit more NW for us to cash in on the heaviest totals (speaking for NW NC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Although 18z NAM snow map might not be sexy (if you discount tonight's event from overall totals), NAM is still creeping toward us with much heavier QPF. I personally think 15z SREF is overdone as usual, but you do want to see almost all members above 5" so that's a good sign. If I'm forced to forecast for Thursday, it's 3-5" in downtown AVL with higher snow totals on peaks. EDIT: 4km NAM is a nice hit for tonight, though! Look like 4km NAM also hit us even harder for Wednesday/Thursday event, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Although 18z NAM snow map might not be sexy (if you discount tonight's event from overall totals), NAM is still creeping toward us with much heavier QPF. I personally think 15z SREF is overdone as usual, but you do want to see almost all members above 5" so that's a good sign. If I'm forced to forecast for Thursday, it's 3-5" in downtown AVL with higher snow totals on peaks. EDIT: 4km NAM is a nice hit for tonight, though! Look like 4km NAM also hit us even harder for Wednesday/Thursday event, too. The NAM is definitely taking steps in the right direction: I also think some people are going to be in for a surprise tomorrow morning around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Some quick obs here in Hawood. The cloud deck has lowered dramatically to around 3500 feet with a temp 24 degrees with light snow starting to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Some quick obs here in Hawood. The cloud deck has lowered dramatically to around 3500 feet with a temp 24 degrees with light snow starting to fall. Clouds have definitely thickened here in Asheville. I was driving around a few minutes ago and could have sworn I saw some flakes...could just be wishful thinking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Anybody know what the SREF is for Boone for Wednesday night/Thursday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Anybody know what the SREF is for Boone for Wednesday night/Thursday morning? Looks like an average of 7.29 inches (but including a little over an inch from tonight/tomorrow). Low is .98 inches and high is 17.29 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GSP afternoon disco.... .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTING WITH THEQUASI-STATIONARY POLAR FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTINGFORECASTING THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT RANGEWILL BE BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTOTHE AREA FORM THE WEST AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES WELL OFF THE EASTCOAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TUENIGHT THROUGH PERHAPS THE BULK OF WED. DURING THAT TIME...A MOREPOTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SWINDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GOM ON WED WHICH IS FORECASTTO SCOOT EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND THEN INTOTHE ATLANTIC BY EARLY THU. AS THE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD...UPPERDIVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS NE GA AND THEWESTERN CAROLINAS WITH PRECIP SPREADING QUICKLY OVER THE REGION FROMSOUTH LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS CERTAINLY MODEL CONSENSUS ATTHIS POINT THAT PRECIP WIL OCCUR...SO WILL BE INCREASING POPSCONSIDERABLY INTO THE CATEGORICAL/LIKELY RANGE SUBJECT TOCOLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS AS USUAL TRYING TO PINDOWN THE DETAILS MOST NOTABLY IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THETHERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHHERNPIEDMONT AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN FROZENPRECIP AND RAIN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM SHOW SOME SUBTLE DETAILS INTHE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH THE GFS SOMEWHATWARMER. ALSO THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE QPFENVELOP. WPC`S DAY3 FORECAST IS FAVORING HIGHER QPF BASED ONENSEMBLES WHICH TRANSLATES INTO WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OFTHE AREA. LOOKING AT THE SREF PLUMES THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THEMEMBERS. FOR INSTANCE AT CLT...THERE IS A RANGE FROM OVER 10 INCHESTO ESSENTIALLY A DUSTING WITH THE MEAN SOMEWHERE AROUND 3 INCHES ORSO. THE CONCERN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILLBE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AS MAX TEMPSSHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S WED AFTERNOON. ALSO...ALL THE COOLINGWILL BE BE MOSTLY DYNAMICALLY INDUCED WITH NO COLD HIGH SITUATEDDIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SURFACE WETBULBS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AT 00Z THU...SLOWLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TOTHE MID 30S SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTY DURING WED NIGHT. IN THEABSENCE OF A WARM NOSE...SNOW GENERALLY OCCURS WHEN SURFACE WET BULBTEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 33 DEGREES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS AGOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEMDONTWILL BE USED UP AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. ALSO...WITHTHE AMOUNT OF QPF IN QUESTION... DO NOT PLAN ON ANY WINTER STORMWATCH HEADLINES YET. IF THE THE LOWER GFS QPF WERE TO VERIFY...WARNING LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST.PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY ON THU EXCEPTFOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED A MODELCONSENSUS FOR MOST FIELDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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