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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Don you need to come back!

 

Hahahaha! Thanks 85, while I miss the excitement of winter & imo their are not many places prettier than the Mnts of WNC. I am a Panhandler for the forseeable future. Spring fishing is just a few weeks away! If I could ever win the lottery I would def. do it like Joe. Until then I will have to live vicariously through you guys. Hope things over preform for all of you this weekend!

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Moonhowl

Moonhowl

Posted
Posted

Hahahaha! Thanks 85, while I miss the excitement of winter & imo their are not many places prettier than the Mnts of WNC. I am a Panhandler for the forseeable future. Spring fishing is just a few weeks away! If I could ever win the lottery I would def. do it like Joe. Until then I will have to live vicariously through you guys. Hope things over preform for all of you this weekend!

 

Warm weather and spring fishing is sounding great right now :flood:

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MikeGold

MikeGold

Posted
Posted

Picked up an inch over night of snow overnight and still snowing a bit. Storm total of 2.5 inches. Current temp and low is negative 7 degrees. Very impressive.

 

6200 feet level of Mt. Mitchell picked up 13" as 7 AM yesterday..not sure what they ended up with as they were hit with squalls the rest of the day.  The Black Mtns have a wonderful way of wringing out whatever passes by there!

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.nous42.KGSP.html

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Shack

Shack

Posted
Posted

Good morning, folks.

Any best guesses for the Fri-Sat system?  Looks like a nice finger of heavier precip on the 6z nam for the northern mountains.

Me, I'm heading up to Highlands this morning from Lizella(which is in the boondocks west of Macon)  to check on a friends home.

The drive up 64 from Dillard ought to be nice. 

I know there's a still a good bit on the ground up there from last Monday's system.

Franklin, how much did you wind up with from yesterdays overperformance?

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Met1985

Met1985

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6200 feet level of Mt. Mitchell picked up 13" as 7 AM yesterday..not sure what they ended up with as they were hit with squalls the rest of the day. The Black Mtns have a wonderful way of wringing out whatever passes by there!

http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.nous42.KGSP.html

yep they do. Was a nice event for them.
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Met1985

Met1985

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Wow. It's -9.6 with a 22/G27 wind making the wind chill around 35 below. Took the dogs out to pee and thought I would freeze after about 30 seconds. Picked up around 4 to 5 inches I guess, too hard to measure in the wind.

I take it tomorrow nights system is not looking all that big, right now ?

nice Joe. To me today will tell the tale of this weekend.
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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Wow. It's -9.6 with a 22/G27 wind making the wind chill around 35 below. Took the dogs out to pee and thought I would freeze after about 30 seconds. Picked up around 4 to 5 inches I guess, too hard to measure in the wind.

 

I take it tomorrow nights system is not looking all that big, right now ?

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL

BE HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIP WILL FALL ACRS THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT THRU

SATURDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY INTO

SATURDAY...AS THE LOBE OF POLAR AIR LIFTS NE AND A TROF DIGS ACRS

THE ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE

SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ACRS THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL ACTIVATE ACRS THE LWR MS AND TN

VALLEYS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF SPREAD ON QPF RESPONSE ON

THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD. THE NAM HAS BEEN

THE WET OUTLIER LAST FEW RUNS. TAKING THE ECMWF/GFS BLEND ON POP AND

THE WPC QPF...I GET LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NC MTNS STARTING FRI

EVE...AND CHC POP EAST. FCST SNDGS SHOW THAT ANY PRECIP THAT

DEVELOPS FRIDAY WILL START OUT AS SNOW. GIVEN THE EXPECTED

QPF...IT/S LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT...WITH PERHAPS CLOSE

TO THE 4"/12HR WARNING EVENT ABOVE 3500 FT...MAINLY IN THE

SW/CENTRAL NC MTNS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...I WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY

WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.

ON SATURDAY...AN IN-SITU WEDGE WILL DEVELOP AS PRECIP WET-BULBS

COLDER TEMPS ACRS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...ALL THE OP MODELS SHOW

LITTLE/IF ANY PRECIP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ONCE THE 850 MB FRONT

LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SO OF COURSE...THE MODELS ARE

BULLISH ON LOSING THE WEDGE AND LETTING TEMPS RISE THRU THE DAY. THE

EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP TYPE THRU THE DAY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF

THERE IS BETTER FORCING AND PRECIP COVERAGE...MAY SEE MORE

SLEET/SNOW ACCUMS...BUT OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK TRANSITION

TO ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING (EXCEPT FOR THE NRN MTNS AND NC

FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL BE LAST TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN). IT WAS

DIFFICULT TO PEG THE HOURLY TEMP TRENDS INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT

EVEN GOING WITH THE RAW MODEL TEMPS...I HAVE ALL AREAS ABOVE

FREEZING BY 00Z SUN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO LIFT THRU

THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM

SECTOR UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SUNDAY EVENING. THE PRECIP

BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WET...WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING 0.5-

1.0" OF QPF ON SUNDAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SOME INSTBY

WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND...BUT THE 00Z RUN LOOKS STABLE. TEMPS SHUD

WARM INTO THE 40S TO LWR 50S IN THE MTNS AND GENERALLY MID TO UPR

50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL

START OUT ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT STALLING WEST OF

THE MTNS. SO THE MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.

ALSO...EXPECT POPS TO TAPER OFF BUT LINGER ENUF FOR SOME CHC OF

LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMS WITH THE COLD

FRONT.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL

BE HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIP WILL FALL ACRS THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT THRU

SATURDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY INTO

SATURDAY...AS THE LOBE OF POLAR AIR LIFTS NE AND A TROF DIGS ACRS

THE ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE

SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ACRS THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL ACTIVATE ACRS THE LWR MS AND TN

VALLEYS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF SPREAD ON QPF RESPONSE ON

THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD. THE NAM HAS BEEN

THE WET OUTLIER LAST FEW RUNS. TAKING THE ECMWF/GFS BLEND ON POP AND

THE WPC QPF...I GET LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NC MTNS STARTING FRI

EVE...AND CHC POP EAST. FCST SNDGS SHOW THAT ANY PRECIP THAT

DEVELOPS FRIDAY WILL START OUT AS SNOW. GIVEN THE EXPECTED

QPF...IT/S LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT...WITH PERHAPS CLOSE

TO THE 4"/12HR WARNING EVENT ABOVE 3500 FT...MAINLY IN THE

SW/CENTRAL NC MTNS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...I WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY

WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.

ON SATURDAY...AN IN-SITU WEDGE WILL DEVELOP AS PRECIP WET-BULBS

COLDER TEMPS ACRS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...ALL THE OP MODELS SHOW

LITTLE/IF ANY PRECIP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ONCE THE 850 MB FRONT

LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SO OF COURSE...THE MODELS ARE

BULLISH ON LOSING THE WEDGE AND LETTING TEMPS RISE THRU THE DAY. THE

EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP TYPE THRU THE DAY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF

THERE IS BETTER FORCING AND PRECIP COVERAGE...MAY SEE MORE

SLEET/SNOW ACCUMS...BUT OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK TRANSITION

TO ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING (EXCEPT FOR THE NRN MTNS AND NC

FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL BE LAST TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN). IT WAS

DIFFICULT TO PEG THE HOURLY TEMP TRENDS INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT

EVEN GOING WITH THE RAW MODEL TEMPS...I HAVE ALL AREAS ABOVE

FREEZING BY 00Z SUN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO LIFT THRU

THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM

SECTOR UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SUNDAY EVENING. THE PRECIP

BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WET...WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING 0.5-

1.0" OF QPF ON SUNDAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SOME INSTBY

WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND...BUT THE 00Z RUN LOOKS STABLE. TEMPS SHUD

WARM INTO THE 40S TO LWR 50S IN THE MTNS AND GENERALLY MID TO UPR

50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL

START OUT ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT STALLING WEST OF

THE MTNS. SO THE MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.

ALSO...EXPECT POPS TO TAPER OFF BUT LINGER ENUF FOR SOME CHC OF

LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMS WITH THE COLD

FRONT.

 

 

I don't need some black socked flip-flopper', Jimmy Buffet lookin', Hawaiian shirt wearin', Margarita sippin', golf cart drivin', shuffle board playin', Speedo sportin', Floridiot to tell me what the weather is going to be in the mountains of North Carolina.

 

20070131063618_old_man_speedos.jpg

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I don't need some black socked flip-flopper', Jimmy Buffet lookin', Hawaiian shirt wearin', Margarita sippin', golf cart drivin', shuffle board playin', Burmuda short sportin', Floridiot to tell me what the weather is going to be in the mountains of North Carolina.

lol awesome Joe. Don still showing us how it's done even in Florida!
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MikeGold

MikeGold

Posted
Posted

6200 feet level of Mt. Mitchell picked up 13" as 7 AM yesterday..not sure what they ended up with as they were hit with squalls the rest of the day.  The Black Mtns have a wonderful way of wringing out whatever passes by there!

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.nous42.KGSP.html

 

yep they do. Was a nice event for them.

 

Add on another 15"...Mt. Mitchell has a rather incredible 27" of snow on the ground currently.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

I don't need some black socked flip-flopper', Jimmy Buffet lookin', Hawaiian shirt wearin', Margarita sippin', golf cart drivin', shuffle board playin', Speedo sportin', Floridiot to tell me what the weather is going to be in the mountains of North Carolina.

20070131063618_old_man_speedos.jpg

Hahahaha!!!.........you know me to well Joe.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Part Deux !  I'll take it on top of what we got already.

 

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
347 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015


AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE
347 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

* TIMING...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL IMPROVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIPPING AGAIN TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES CAN BE LIFE THREATENING IF
YOU ARE NOT WEARING MULTIPLE LAYERS OF PROTECTIVE CLOTHING...AND
CAN CAUSE FROST BITE IN A MATTER OF MINUTES ON EXPOSED SKIN.
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS MAY BECOME COVERED IN SNOW AND ICE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND BECOME SLIPPERY AS A RESULT.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...FALLING TO 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DIP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

Part Deux !  I'll take it on top of what we got already.

 

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

347 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...

CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE

347 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

* TIMING...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL IMPROVE ONLY

SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIPPING AGAIN TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2

TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES CAN BE LIFE THREATENING IF

YOU ARE NOT WEARING MULTIPLE LAYERS OF PROTECTIVE CLOTHING...AND

CAN CAUSE FROST BITE IN A MATTER OF MINUTES ON EXPOSED SKIN.

ROADS AND SIDEWALKS MAY BECOME COVERED IN SNOW AND ICE FRIDAY

NIGHT...AND BECOME SLIPPERY AS A RESULT.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...FALLING TO 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AS

TEMPERATURES DIP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

thought all wnc would be under wsw and south of ther wwa.  go figure

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Down to -3.1 but have stayed there for the past 3 hours. That's fine with me, it's cold enough. Frozen smoke here as well. Even a light dusting.

 

I have absolutely no idea what to think of tomorrow nights storm.  Once again we're a little more than 24 hours out and it doesn't look like any model has a clue. That's pathetic.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Down to -3.1 but have stayed there for the past 3 hours. That's fine with me, it's cold enough. Frozen smoke here as well. Even a light dusting.down to negative 1 here and yes the models are pathetic.

I have absolutely no idea what to think of tomorrow nights storm. Once again we're a little more than 24 hours out and it doesn't look like any model has a clue. That's pathetic.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

 

Down to -3.1 but have stayed there for the past 3 hours. That's fine with me, it's cold enough. Frozen smoke here as well. Even a light dusting.down to negative 1 here and yes the models are pathetic.

I have absolutely no idea what to think of tomorrow nights storm. Once again we're a little more than 24 hours out and it doesn't look like any model has a clue. That's pathetic.

 

 

 

I think the cold froze up your keyboard.

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