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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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jacobr57

jacobr57

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to me the moisture look substantial to get over the mountains. I might be missing something but I really do think downtown will get something.

 

Oh, yea, i agree with you. An inch or so certainly isn't out of the question for Asheville. But the advisory issued was just for refreezing and cold temperatures so far for the central and southern mountains.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Oh, yea, i agree with you. An inch or so certainly isn't out of the question for Asheville. But the advisory issued was just for refreezing and cold temperatures so far for the central and southern mountains.

yeah I saw that. I think they may extend it out possibly tomorrow morning maybe especially with ground temps.
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jacobr57

jacobr57

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yeah I saw that. I think they may extend it out possibly tomorrow morning maybe especially with ground temps.

 

GSP's afternoon discussion talked about issuing an advisory just NW of Charlotte tonight for snow, so I would imagine an advisory for the central mountains at least is likely. Ratios would be crazy with this system and accumulations would be immediate I would think.

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Met1985

Met1985

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GSP's afternoon discussion talked about issuing an advisory just NW of Charlotte tonight for snow, so I would imagine an advisory for the central mountains at least is likely. Ratios would be crazy with this system and accumulations would be immediate I would think.

No kidding and with this arctic air coming 8n it would ring ever bit of moisture out 9f the atmosphere. Could see diamond dust also.
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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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Just got around to reading GSP's long range discussion and they say this weekend's storm could meet warning criteria. Maybe a little warmer at the end then back to snow Sun. night. This coming after tomorrows event.

 

Then maybe something brewing around Tues. Who flipped the switch on this winter ? :snowing:  !  

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Met1985

Met1985

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Just got around to reading GSP's long range discussion and they say this weekend's storm could meet warning criteria. Maybe a little warmer at the end then back to snow Sun. night. This coming after tomorrows event.

Then maybe something brewing around Tues. Who flipped the switch on this winter ? :snowing: !

I know Joe! This is going to be a great couple of weeks if we can really cash in.
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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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to me the moisture look substantial to get over the mountains. I might be missing something but I really do think downtown will get something.

I am not convinced the valleys, especially southwest of Boone and Banner Elk, will see much snow with tomorrow's system. Moisture looks exceptionally meager despite a quick hit of forcing along the frontal boundary.

Will there be snow in the air around AVL? Sure. But I don't expect any accumulations in the central or southwestern NC mountain valleys, much less 0.5" in the forecast. This is a border county snow event for Madison northward to Yancy and up to Watauga.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I am not convinced the valleys, especially southwest of Boone and Banner Elk, will see much snow with tomorrow's system. Moisture looks exceptionally meager despite a quick hit of forcing along the frontal boundary.

Will there be snow in the air around AVL? Sure. But I don't expect any accumulations in the central or southwestern NC mountain valleys, much less 0.5" in the forecast. This is a border county snow event for Madison northward to Yancy and up to Watauga.

We will see HT. Trying to keep hope up for my valley weenies but hard to go against you. Your track record is about perfect and you are one of the most solid Met that posts in the SE forum but here's hoping you bust! Lol.
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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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We will see HT. Trying to keep hope up for my valley weenies but hard to go against you. Your track record is about perfect and you are one of the most solid Met that posts in the SE forum but here's hoping you bust! Lol.

Ha thanks man! It's always fun to forecast winter weather. But I'm also very honest in what I see happening. FWIW, I hope I bust too!

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wncsnow

wncsnow

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as long as we can get moisture in here with the first wave. The 2nd one will cut.

Yea it looks to cut pretty far west, maybe even to the point we don't get a lot of rain from it, but a lot of it hedges on the strength of the high in the NE and how far east the precip gets

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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What are your thoughts on Friday night/Saturday? Looks to be a better shot than tomorrow that's for sure..

Really quite early to be thinking about Friday night into Saturday. We need this arctic airmass to settle in first and see just how dry it gets and how long the cold dry air hangs on. But I like the look of the GFS at this range. Changes no doubt forthcoming in the next 72 hours, but GFS look and feel for this system seems about right.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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FWIW, Ray just posted a late evening update saying tomorrows event looked more impressive than the one Sat. Said a broad swath of 3 to 6 inches are possible with 6+ along the NC/TN border. Has 1 to 3 all the way to the escarpment. Also mentions isolated thundersnow. 

 

http://www.raysweather.com/premium/conditions/event-facebook.jpg

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Met1985

Met1985

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FWIW, Ray just posted a late evening update saying tomorrows event looked more impressive than the one Sat. Said a broad swath of 3 to 6 inches are possible with 6+ along the NC/TN border. Has 1 to 3 all the way to the escarpment. Also mentions isolated thundersnow.

http://www.raysweather.com/premium/conditions/event-facebook.jpg

thanks for posting Joe. Encouraging.
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Bango

Bango

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Ha thanks man! It's always fun to forecast winter weather. But I'm also very honest in what I see happening. FWIW, I hope I bust too!

 

You seem to be dissecting .5 inches and a dusting...if flakes are in the air (as you suggest) then every single flake should stick.  Does it matter if it's .2 vs .5?

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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FWIW, Ray just posted a late evening update saying tomorrows event looked more impressive than the one Sat. Said a broad swath of 3 to 6 inches are possible with 6+ along the NC/TN border. Has 1 to 3 all the way to the escarpment. Also mentions isolated thundersnow. 

 

http://www.raysweather.com/premium/conditions/event-facebook.jpg

 

Nice to see from a good local met.

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