Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Boom winter weather advisory for basically all of western North Carolina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Boom winter weather advisory for basically all of western North Carolina! Mainly for black ice and wind chills down to nearly 30 for most places though. Only the border counties have an advisory for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Mainly for black ice and wind chills down to nearly 30 for most places though. Only the border counties have an advisory for snow. yep to good to be true for asheville. i saw winter weather advisory i thought o boy then i saw for black ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Mainly for black ice and wind chills down to nearly 30 for most places though. Only the border counties have an advisory for snow.to me the moisture look substantial to get over the mountains. I might be missing something but I really do think downtown will get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 to me the moisture look substantial to get over the mountains. I might be missing something but I really do think downtown will get something. Oh, yea, i agree with you. An inch or so certainly isn't out of the question for Asheville. But the advisory issued was just for refreezing and cold temperatures so far for the central and southern mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Oh, yea, i agree with you. An inch or so certainly isn't out of the question for Asheville. But the advisory issued was just for refreezing and cold temperatures so far for the central and southern mountains.yeah I saw that. I think they may extend it out possibly tomorrow morning maybe especially with ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 yeah I saw that. I think they may extend it out possibly tomorrow morning maybe especially with ground temps. GSP's afternoon discussion talked about issuing an advisory just NW of Charlotte tonight for snow, so I would imagine an advisory for the central mountains at least is likely. Ratios would be crazy with this system and accumulations would be immediate I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 GSP's afternoon discussion talked about issuing an advisory just NW of Charlotte tonight for snow, so I would imagine an advisory for the central mountains at least is likely. Ratios would be crazy with this system and accumulations would be immediate I would think. No kidding and with this arctic air coming 8n it would ring ever bit of moisture out 9f the atmosphere. Could see diamond dust also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 The thing about this air mass is that there is lots of snow on the ground upstream just in Kentucky and some in Tennessee also and of course snow and ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 NC High Country Ridgelines could make a run at -25f Boone is targeted at -8 so always at least another 10 to 15 degrees colder higher up Get prepared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just got around to reading GSP's long range discussion and they say this weekend's storm could meet warning criteria. Maybe a little warmer at the end then back to snow Sun. night. This coming after tomorrows event. Then maybe something brewing around Tues. Who flipped the switch on this winter ? ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just got around to reading GSP's long range discussion and they say this weekend's storm could meet warning criteria. Maybe a little warmer at the end then back to snow Sun. night. This coming after tomorrows event. Then maybe something brewing around Tues. Who flipped the switch on this winter ? ! I know Joe! This is going to be a great couple of weeks if we can really cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We need to cash in on a big dog in the next 10 days or so. The long range doesn't look too good! I wish we could have a -NAO but alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 We need to cash in on a big dog in the next 10 days or so. The long range doesn't look too good! I wish we could have a -NAO but alas...our blocking will show up in March I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 to me the moisture look substantial to get over the mountains. I might be missing something but I really do think downtown will get something. I am not convinced the valleys, especially southwest of Boone and Banner Elk, will see much snow with tomorrow's system. Moisture looks exceptionally meager despite a quick hit of forcing along the frontal boundary. Will there be snow in the air around AVL? Sure. But I don't expect any accumulations in the central or southwestern NC mountain valleys, much less 0.5" in the forecast. This is a border county snow event for Madison northward to Yancy and up to Watauga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 I am not convinced the valleys, especially southwest of Boone and Banner Elk, will see much snow with tomorrow's system. Moisture looks exceptionally meager despite a quick hit of forcing along the frontal boundary. Will there be snow in the air around AVL? Sure. But I don't expect any accumulations in the central or southwestern NC mountain valleys, much less 0.5" in the forecast. This is a border county snow event for Madison northward to Yancy and up to Watauga. We will see HT. Trying to keep hope up for my valley weenies but hard to go against you. Your track record is about perfect and you are one of the most solid Met that posts in the SE forum but here's hoping you bust! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We will see HT. Trying to keep hope up for my valley weenies but hard to go against you. Your track record is about perfect and you are one of the most solid Met that posts in the SE forum but here's hoping you bust! Lol. Ha thanks man! It's always fun to forecast winter weather. But I'm also very honest in what I see happening. FWIW, I hope I bust too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Ha thanks man! It's always fun to forecast winter weather. But I'm also very honest in what I see happening. FWIW, I hope I bust too!lol better to be honest than give false hope. Well I think I can speak for this thread but we really appreciate your input on things for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Ha thanks man! It's always fun to forecast winter weather. But I'm also very honest in what I see happening. FWIW, I hope I bust too! What are your thoughts on Friday night/Saturday? Looks to be a better shot than tomorrow that's for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What are your thoughts on Friday night/Saturday? Looks to be a better shot than tomorrow that's for sure..as long as we can get moisture in here with the first wave. The 2nd one will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 as long as we can get moisture in here with the first wave. The 2nd one will cut. Yea it looks to cut pretty far west, maybe even to the point we don't get a lot of rain from it, but a lot of it hedges on the strength of the high in the NE and how far east the precip gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What are your thoughts on Friday night/Saturday? Looks to be a better shot than tomorrow that's for sure.. Really quite early to be thinking about Friday night into Saturday. We need this arctic airmass to settle in first and see just how dry it gets and how long the cold dry air hangs on. But I like the look of the GFS at this range. Changes no doubt forthcoming in the next 72 hours, but GFS look and feel for this system seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FWIW, Ray just posted a late evening update saying tomorrows event looked more impressive than the one Sat. Said a broad swath of 3 to 6 inches are possible with 6+ along the NC/TN border. Has 1 to 3 all the way to the escarpment. Also mentions isolated thundersnow. http://www.raysweather.com/premium/conditions/event-facebook.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 FWIW, Ray just posted a late evening update saying tomorrows event looked more impressive than the one Sat. Said a broad swath of 3 to 6 inches are possible with 6+ along the NC/TN border. Has 1 to 3 all the way to the escarpment. Also mentions isolated thundersnow. http://www.raysweather.com/premium/conditions/event-facebook.jpg thanks for posting Joe. Encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Ha thanks man! It's always fun to forecast winter weather. But I'm also very honest in what I see happening. FWIW, I hope I bust too! You seem to be dissecting .5 inches and a dusting...if flakes are in the air (as you suggest) then every single flake should stick. Does it matter if it's .2 vs .5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FWIW, Ray just posted a late evening update saying tomorrows event looked more impressive than the one Sat. Said a broad swath of 3 to 6 inches are possible with 6+ along the NC/TN border. Has 1 to 3 all the way to the escarpment. Also mentions isolated thundersnow. http://www.raysweather.com/premium/conditions/event-facebook.jpg Nice to see from a good local met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wow is it cold out. Already down to 12 degrees. The next 2 days are going to be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Radar looks very good in Tennessee this morning and boy is it cold. Down to 7 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Snow falling know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Flurries started. Mtns to the west already snow covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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