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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Radar trends suggest we will be done with the precip quite a bit earlier than forecast. It looks to me like a stronger eastward progression is taking over. Precip should clear most of the mountain counties by 10:30pm. Maybe sooner for Franklin and Haywood counties.

good! I would like to keep Power.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
Posted

Ended up with 3.5" in Boone, sleet at the end really killed our totals. It is 16 degrees though. This stuff won't be gone for a long time especially with the weather the next 7 days lol

 

Very nice, surprising you just ended up with 3.5 there in Boone.  Had close to 3 inches here of all sleet, save 30 mins of snow at the onset.

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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

Posted
Posted

Very nice, surprising you just ended up with 3.5 there in Boone. Had close to 3 inches here of all sleet, save 30 mins of snow at the onset.

Me too, it dumped and dumped all evening and then it dumped sleet for a bit and that killed it. Still a fun storm non the less. I'll be out in the AM shooting aerials around Boone

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Looks like some more fun ahead for you guys! Hope everyone stays safe!

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECWMF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MANY OF THE DETAILS OF THE WX PATTERN ACRS THE EASTERN
STATES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ARE TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE ACTIVE...WITH A SERIES
OF WAVES PROMOTING PERIODS OF PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. POPS LOOK TO RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRES SHIFTS EAST...AND STRONG LLVL WAA OUT OF THE SW BRINGS GULF
MOISTURE ATOP A COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS. SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON ANOTHER WINTRY PRECIP EVENT TO START THE WEEKEND. AS
USUAL...HOW THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL EVOLVE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR
OUT IN THE FCST. TAKING A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ON LLVL
THICKNESSES DOES SHOW A PERIOD OF SNOW ACRS THE MTNS...WHILE A MIX
OF P-TYPES LOOKS LIKELY ACRS THE PIEDMONT. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE CONVERGING SOLNS ON
TIMING AND COLD INITIAL THICKNESSES.

FROM THERE...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHUD SEE WARMING LLVL TEMPS WITHIN
PERSISTENT WAA SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY SUCH THAT ANY ONGOING
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE
AREA FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THICKNESSES/TEMPS DOWN TO
SNOW IN THE MTNS. POPS SHUD TAPER OFF MONDAY...AS ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL START OUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY BELOW FREEZING. THEN NOT AS COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM. PER LATEST CONSENSUS WE
MAY SEE LWR 50S ON SUNDAY ACRS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. TEMPS FALL
BACK TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL OR SO ON MONDAY.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

We had 5 inches of snow before the changeover to sleet. It compacted the to around 4 inches this morning. It's heavy as lead and will take a long time to get our roads clear and the way the temps look it'll be around a long time. I bet the kids here will be out of school for the rest of the week.

 

A nice storm, but I remember when a 5 inch storm wasn't much to write home about. Just shows how snow starved we were.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Looking back at what was occurring yesterday morning from 2:00am to 9:00am when the Mount Mitchell temperature sensor at 6200' went to 31 degrees while Grandfather Mountain just to the NE at 700' lower stayed below 10 degrees, it was apparent that the elusive warm nose we were dealing with yesterday was skimming along just above the 850mb 5000' level.

 

As shown by the hourly top of hour readings at Mitchell yesterday, the temperature was all over the place during the day and even more so when you drill down to the minute by minute data.

 

These types of events is what makes our NC High Country a very interesting place for weather observations.

 

02/16/2015 00:00 H 18.1

02/16/2015 01:00 H 19.4

02/16/2015 02:00 H 19.9

02/16/2015 03:00 H 21.4

02/16/2015 04:00 H 25.3

02/16/2015 05:00 H 26.2

02/16/2015 06:00 H 26.6

02/16/2015 07:00 H 27.1

02/16/2015 08:00 H 29.7

02/16/2015 09:00 H 30.9

02/16/2015 10:00 H 27.9

02/16/2015 11:00 H 21.4

02/16/2015 12:00 H 19.4

02/16/2015 13:00 H 16.7

02/16/2015 14:00 H 25.5

02/16/2015 15:00 H 23.9

02/16/2015 16:00 H 27

02/16/2015 17:00 H 27.7

02/16/2015 18:00 H 25.9

02/16/2015 19:00 H 25.3

02/16/2015 20:00 H 27.7

02/16/2015 21:00 H 28.2

02/16/2015 22:00 H 30

02/16/2015 23:00 H 31.1

02/17/2015 00:00 H 30.4

2/17/2015 01:00 H 26.8

02/17/2015 02:00 H 24.3

02/17/2015 03:00 H 21.9

02/17/2015 04:00 H 20.7

02/17/2015 05:00 H 18

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

Models look great for some snow tomorrow through late evening with temps dropping into the single digits.

 

maybe we can pick up an inch or two. Hopefully Saturday we can pick up 4-6 before the change over.

 

Yeah guys I am liking the potential for tomorrow.  I was looking back at old threads and it looks like Don saw thunder sleet during one of these type events a couple of years ago.  It would be neat to see some really heavy snow or maybe experience thunder snow/sleet again tomorrow.  As far as Saturday, soundings on the 12z gfs looked good for around 6hrs of snow so hopefully we can get enough precip in here before we change to rain.  I mean last storm at this point in time we were sitting pretty for 4-6 inches at least so who knows where this will trend.  Odds might be against us, but nothing would surprise me this winter.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Wonder if GSP will issue some advisories with their update. Looks to be more than your average flow snow.

We've had almost zero snow melt today. Sun is making for some humongous icicles. There is one on my barn that must be 6 feet long. Plow came by and it did nothing.

same here Joe. Ice is still everywhere. I am sure they will issue several advisories for the mountains. Probably a winter weather advisory, a wind advisory, and a wind chill advisory
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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Don't forget to enjoy tomorrow, Wednesday and Wednesday evening, before the weekend hammer. Wednesday system reminds me of Saturday 2/14. Tomorrow has less moisture to work with, but it is vigorous and bringing some of its own. Manhattan, KS reported heavy snow last hour (20Z Tue) with the short wave approaching NC/VA/WV. If you believe hi-res NAM it will even copy the Saturday one two structure. Looks like some light snow with/ahead of  the immediate front. Then streamer type snow squalls follow. I was up there in Banner Elk for skiing over the weekend and thoroughly enjoyed the Saturday snow squalls. Best wishes for a nice repeat tomorrow!

:ski:

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Don't forget to enjoy tomorrow, Wednesday and Wednesday evening, before the weekend hammer. Wednesday system reminds me of Saturday 2/14. Tomorrow has less moisture to work with, but it is vigorous and bringing some of its own. Manhattan, KS reported heavy snow last hour (20Z Tue) with the short wave approaching NC/VA/WV. If you believe hi-res NAM it will even copy the Saturday one two structure. Looks like some light snow with/ahead of the immediate front. Then streamer type snow squalls follow. I was up there in Banner Elk for skiing over the weekend and thoroughly enjoyed the Saturday snow squalls. Best wishes for a nice repeat tomorrow!

:ski:

thanks Jeff! it looks like just a matter of time before we start seeing advisories on this side of the apps.
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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

Looks like GSP backed off to 0.5" for Asheville; trending down I guess :(

 

I'm not sure they're actually trending back...I'm inclined to think the 1-3 inches was an error of some sort earlier. If you checked all of the surrounding areas (northward included) the totals were significantly less.

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