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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

If precip rates don't pick up soon here we will be lucky to see a dusting of anything, this dry air means business

We are waiting for the main forcing to arrive. Then rates will increase dramatically. I think this happens 6pm to 11pm across the mountains. Unfortunately, strongest forcing also coincides with warmest temps aloft, so that's also our ZR window. Not out of the woods by a long shot.

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

We are waiting for the main forcing to arrive. Then rates will increase dramatically. I think this happens 6pm to 11pm across the mountains. Unfortunately, strongest forcing also coincides with warmest temps aloft, so that's also our ZR window. Not out of the woods by a long shot.

 

Rates are picking up significantly here at UNCA.

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Southern Apps.

Southern Apps.

Posted
Posted

GSP NWS talking about Thunder Snow later this week:

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT
VIGOROUS UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BY WED NIGHT...GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THU AS THE
AXIS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BLAST THROUGH
THE REGION ON WED...USHERING IN A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT RATHER DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY THE FRONT...WITH NW UPSLOPE SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES BY EARLY WED MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS THRU MIDDAY. INTERESTINGLY...AREAS EVEN EAST OF THE
MTNS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW ON WED AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION...STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP AND SKINNY CAPE WILL BE PRESCIENT
ALONG WITH RATHER DEEP MOIST LAYER ACROSS ENTIRE CWA....SUPPORTING A
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING NWLY H85 WINDS EAST OF THE MTNS. THEREFORE...POPS IN THE
RANGE OF SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE PRESENCE OF SBCAPE...THUNDER SNOW IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ATT. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT TOWARD WED
EVENING/NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING WILL OCCUR OVERHEAD OWING TO
BUILDIONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS DURING
THIS EVENT ACROSS THE TN BORDR COUNTIES WILL BE AROUND 1-3
INCHES...WITH LESS THAN 0.5 INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MTNS ZONES.
SINCE THIS PERIOD IS BEYOND DAY 3...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HWO.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS ON WED NIGHT FOR ENTIRE
CWA AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE
NW...H85 TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -27C ALONG THE TN BORDER AND TO -22C
ALONG THE I-85 BY 12Z THU. THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT SURFACE TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET INTO 5-10 BELOW ZERO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WITH TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA...WE WILL SEE GUSTY NW CAA WINDS OF 15-30
MPH ACROSS THE MTNS WITH 10-20 MPH ELSEWEHRE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
FRIGID TEMPS TO CREAT DANGEROUS WIND CHILL READINGS OF -10 TO -25F
ACROSS THE MTNS. AREAS OUT SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO ON WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. CONDIITONS ON THU
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DAYTIME TEMPS ON THU
WILL REMAIN IN THE SIGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO THE LOW 10S OVER THE NC
MTNS WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
 

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