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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

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I think here we may actually change to rain pretty soon at the onset of the precipitation. I just do not like the look of the temp profiles.

 

 

Dew Point is -2 here. My wet bulb would be approximately 19. Freezing rain maybe, but it would be a while if at all, before it changed to plain rain. Of course, you are further west and higher in elevation, so who knows, you may be right.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Dew Point is -2 here. My wet bulb would be approximately 19. Freezing rain maybe, but it would be a while if at all, before it changed to plain rain. Of course, you are further west and higher in elevation, so who knows, you may be right.

yeah Ashville does much better in cad events than I do. Maybe we get some evaporation cooling at the onset of precipitation.
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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
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yeah Ashville does much better in cad events than I do. Maybe we get some evaporation cooling at the onset of precipitation.

 

 

I hope so. Hopefully, you will hang on to snow way longer than forecasted. I would certainly take rain to an ice storm, so you may be the lucky one if you warm up.   :)

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Met1985

Met1985

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I hope so. Hopefully, you will hang on to snow way longer than forecasted. I would certainly take rain to an ice storm, so you may be the lucky one if you warm up. :)

lol yeah i agree. I do not want .30 tenths of an inch of ice like they are know forcasting. No thank you. I would take a cold rain over that.
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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
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I hope so. Hopefully, you will hang on to snow way longer than forecasted. I would certainly take rain to an ice storm, so you may be the lucky one if you warm up. :)

What is starting to concern me, is the great amount of sunshine in Asheville right now. Temperatures have topped 30°F and the winds have started to increase out of the Southeast. Still plenty dry but a ton of sunshine!

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
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What is starting to concern me, is the great amount of sunshine in Asheville right now. Temperatures have topped 30°F and the winds have started to increase out of the Southeast. Still plenty dry but a ton of sunshine!

 

 

My wet bulb is still 24. GSP mentions the breaks in clouds in their latest discussion. Other than the southern fringes, it seems like we are still on track.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1020 AM EST...THE SFC LOW CENTER WAS ANAYLYZED OVER THE LOWER

MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDING NWD

ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY ICING

HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL TN AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO

MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD/INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

THE MAIN POINTS OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST INCLUDE...SLIGHTLY MORE

BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING

TEMPS TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...AND ALSO THE LATEST RAP

MODEL TRENDS OF QUICKLY WARMING SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE

FREEZING ACROSS THE SRN HALF BY THE TIME THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION

ARRIVES LATE AFTN/EVENING. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE MUCH COLDER

WITH SFC WET BULBS AND THE SREF MEAN IS A COMPROMISE...WITH THE MAIN

WARMING OVER THE NE GA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND WRN SC UPSTATE. THE

ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT QPF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT

WINTRY PRECIP IN ANY AREAS WHERE THE PROFILES SUPPORT WINTER TYPES.

WILL THUS SHARPEN UP THE GRADIENT OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMS ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY COLD RAIN NOW EXPECTED FROM TOCCOA TO

ANDERSON TO LAURENS TO CHESTER...BUT WITH A VERY SHARP TRANSITION TO

SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE GA MTNS TO GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG TO ROCK

HILL/CHARLOTTE/MONROE. NRN BLUE RIDGE AREA SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN

INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT AGAIN SOME SLEET WILL MIX IN AT

TIMES TO SLIGHTLY CURB TOTALS BELOW WHAT QPF INDICATES. WILL

CONTINUE TO FOLLOW 4 KM WRF AND HRRR CONSENSUS ON ARRIVAL TIMES

ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY SLOTTING IS EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT...AND

THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD CUT OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR

WILL QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE A TRANSITION BACK OVER TO

SNOW FOR ANY NW FLOW PRECIPITATIO THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO CHANGES IN THE

WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THE GRADIENT AMONG

ALL SNOW/ICE ACCUMS HAS BEEN SHARPENED

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
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What is starting to concern me, is the great amount of sunshine in Asheville right now. Temperatures have topped 30°F and the winds have started to increase out of the Southeast. Still plenty dry but a ton of sunshine!

 

I think bulb temps will be fine for big ice, but I'm wondering about QPF at this point due to dryness in atmosphere. Precipitation are making it to Atlanta, but not over mountains yet.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
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I think bulb temps will be fine for big ice, but I'm wondering about QPF at this point due to dryness in atmosphere. Precipitation are making it to Atlanta, but not over mountains yet.

My experience is that the later an event starts, the drier it will be. Start time in the mountains keeps being pushed back. With so much sun out now, I think we wait until 3-5pm before it starts.

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