Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is an incredibly dry air mass that is over us now. How much moisture are we going to lose to overcome it ?I don think much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm curious what everyone here thinks as we come to the final stretch. It certainly seems like there's a consensus of some front end snow followed by ice. I'm particularly questioning the amount of ice as GSP currently is forecasting around a quarter of an inch, but the GFS and NAM imply double that. GSP said during their one-hour Twitter and FaceBook chat session that they were seriously considering increasing ice amounts for the mountains. They are preferring the GFS and it's trended wetter each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is an incredibly dry air mass that is over us now. How much moisture are we going to lose to overcome it ? Should be none. Models already account for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21Z SREF was even worse, as I estimated around .90-1.00 inch of ice strictly using red bars on this. Saved this image to my "Historic Weather Images" folder just in case... I looked at ensembles and they are really clustered between .8 to 1.3 inch of QPF which mean around .6 to 1.1 inch of ice assuming ratio is the same as mean. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 21Z SREF was even worse, as I estimated around .90-1.00 inch of ice strictly using red bars on this. Saved this image to my "Historic Weather Images" folder just in case... I looked at ensembles and they are really clustered between .8 to 1.3 inch of QPF which mean around .6 to 1.1 inch of ice assuming ratio is the same as mean. Yikes. That would be catastrophic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do models ever overplay the warming of the atmosphere? If an inch of ice occurred we would be without power for who knows how long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do models ever overplay the warming of the atmosphere? If an inch of ice occurred we would be without power for who knows how long.yeah they can and do. Right know I think looking at the model runs is just pure entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 yeah they can and do. Right know I think looking at the model runs is just pure entertainment. Right now, we should start looking at HRRR and RAP for trends. However, models are painting grim images for few areas of WNC that won't get snow or rain mixed in such as Asheville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 It has begun! Lol was looking at the radar and noticed some returns overhead and walked outside and we have a dusting of snow. It is very dry also with the temp in the middle teens. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Awesome gsp is calling for a half inch of ice here now. Not want I want, wish I could pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GSP updated their maps but Asheville is almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Awesome gsp is calling for a half inch of ice here now. Not want I want, wish I could pass.lol just saw that. Um yeah Houston we could have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 lol just saw that. Um yeah Houston we could have a problem.and just yesterday morning we were looking at 3/4 inch of QPF with 850 temps of -6 now we are screwed. Hope this storm busts to the south son we can stay snow sleet longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 and just yesterday morning we were looking at 3/4 inch of QPF with 850 temps of -6 now we are screwed. Hope this storm busts to the south son we can stay snow sleet longer. Yeah I do to. I don't remember the last time we were ground zero for an ice storm. Not looking forward to it if the models are trending correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm not really understanding NWS GSP's thinking here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rgem is scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is the GFS coming in as snow for Asheville? 850s look really close... Edit: Obviously we're getting into short range model territory, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rgem is scaryYeah I saw it. What a raging ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is the GFS coming in as snow for Asheville? 850s look really close... Edit: Obviously we're getting into short range model territory, but still. Yeah looks like snow then ice then maybe some more snow. Just a mixed bag of about everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gfs actually has a good thump of snow before the change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at the radar we could get an early start on things here along the boarder counties. Stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gfs actually has a good thump of snow before the change over.not too bad on the 0z, this is 6 hours after the precip starts. Barely hanging onto snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anybody have any input on these torch surface temps on the short range models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking ahead, Meteostar shows -10 Thursday morning with a high of 9 and then -4 Friday. Of course, I guess that is depending on whether we have any snow cover. As far as today, I am hoping for more snow than ice. 6Z GFS seems to suggest that it would snow for a while before any changeover. I guess we shall see. Edited to add... and of course, we could be below zero Thursday, but warm up enough for the weekend to be more rain than frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Low temps busted pretty bad last night. Forecast was 5 but only managed 12.6. It has risen up to 16.7 in the past 2 hours. Hope that doesn't mean much. Noticed UNCA is at 26.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking ahead, Meteostar shows -10 Thursday morning with a high of 9 and then -4 Friday. Of course, I guess that is depending on whether we have any snow cover. As far as today, I am hoping for more snow than ice. 6Z GFS seems to suggest that it would snow for a while before any changeover. I guess we shall see. Edited to add... and of course, we could be below zero Thursday, but warm up enough for the weekend to be more rain than frozen. story of this terrible winter. Go figure, we could finish below normal on temps and above average on precip and well below normal on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rapid influx of 850mb warming To show the force of the warmer air starting to flood in at the 850mb level, as of 7:45am this morning Mount Mitchell has rising to 30.6 degrees whereas just to the NE, Grandfather Mountain is still at 7.5 degrees and Beech is at 10.3 degrees. Winds at Mitchell are West at 21 and at Grandfather they are on the edge of turning from the SE to the West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Low temps busted pretty bad last night. Forecast was 5 but only managed 12.6. It has risen up to 16.7 in the past 2 hours. Hope that doesn't mean much. Noticed UNCA is at 26.6. But dewpoints are still in the low single digits. That creates wetbulb temperatures in the mid to upper teens. More than sufficient to support snow or sleet at onset. If we even get 1" of snow or sleet, then that will help keep the atmosphere "refrigerated", so-to-speak, and may actually enhance the ZR threat since surface levels won't warm much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rapid influx of 850mb warming To show the force of the warmer air starting to flood in at the 850mb level, as of 7:45am this morning Mount Mitchell has rising to 30.6 degrees whereas just to the NE, Grandfather Mountain is still at 7.5 degrees and Beech is at 10.3 degrees. Winds at Mitchell are West at 21 and at Grandfather they are on the edge of turning from the SE to the West Classic CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 story of this terrible winter. Go figure, we could finish below normal on temps and above average on precip and well below normal on snow. i know can you believe we're so cold all week and then moisture coming up for the weekend it warms up and rains. what in the hell is wrong with this winter, its terrible if you want some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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