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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

I'm curious what everyone here thinks as we come to the final stretch. It certainly seems like there's a consensus of some front end snow followed by ice. I'm particularly questioning the amount of ice as GSP currently is forecasting around a quarter of an inch, but the GFS and NAM imply double that.

GSP said during their one-hour Twitter and FaceBook chat session that they were seriously considering increasing ice amounts for the mountains. They are preferring the GFS and it's trended wetter each run.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

21Z SREF was even worse, as I estimated around .90-1.00 inch of ice strictly using red bars on this. Saved this image to my "Historic Weather Images" folder just in case...

 

ZuCQAXi.png

 

I looked at ensembles and they are really clustered between .8 to 1.3 inch of QPF which mean around .6 to 1.1 inch of ice assuming ratio is the same as mean. Yikes.

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Met1985

Met1985

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21Z SREF was even worse, as I estimated around .90-1.00 inch of ice strictly using red bars on this. Saved this image to my "Historic Weather Images" folder just in case...

ZuCQAXi.png

I looked at ensembles and they are really clustered between .8 to 1.3 inch of QPF which mean around .6 to 1.1 inch of ice assuming ratio is the same as mean. Yikes.

That would be catastrophic!
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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

yeah they can and do. Right know I think looking at the model runs is just pure entertainment.

 

Right now, we should start looking at HRRR and RAP for trends. However, models are painting grim images for few areas of WNC that won't get snow or rain mixed in such as Asheville...

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Met1985

Met1985

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and just yesterday morning we were looking at 3/4 inch of QPF with 850 temps of -6 now we are screwed. Hope this storm busts to the south son we can stay snow sleet longer.

Yeah I do to. I don't remember the last time we were ground zero for an ice storm. Not looking forward to it if the models are trending correct.
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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
Posted

Looking ahead, Meteostar shows -10 Thursday morning with a high of 9 and then -4 Friday. Of course, I guess that is depending on whether we have any snow cover. As far as today, I am hoping for more snow than ice. 6Z GFS seems to suggest that it would snow for a while before any changeover. I guess we shall see.

 

Edited to add... and of course, we could be below zero Thursday, but warm up enough for the weekend to be more rain than frozen.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
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Looking ahead, Meteostar shows -10 Thursday morning with a high of 9 and then -4 Friday. Of course, I guess that is depending on whether we have any snow cover. As far as today, I am hoping for more snow than ice. 6Z GFS seems to suggest that it would snow for a while before any changeover. I guess we shall see.

Edited to add... and of course, we could be below zero Thursday, but warm up enough for the weekend to be more rain than frozen.

story of this terrible winter. Go figure, we could finish below normal on temps and above average on precip and well below normal on snow.
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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
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Rapid influx of 850mb warming

 

To show the force of the warmer air starting to flood in at the 850mb level, as of 7:45am this morning Mount Mitchell has rising to 30.6 degrees whereas just to the NE, Grandfather Mountain is still at 7.5 degrees and Beech is at 10.3 degrees.

 

Winds at Mitchell are West at 21 and at Grandfather they are on the edge of turning from the SE to the West

 

Z9uwkTk.png

 

q437Xwh.jpg

 

LmyLbLH.jpg

 

bmxg2Lu.png

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
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Low temps busted pretty bad last night. Forecast was 5 but only managed 12.6. It has risen up to 16.7 in the past 2 hours. Hope that doesn't mean much. Noticed UNCA is at 26.6.

But dewpoints are still in the low single digits. That creates wetbulb temperatures in the mid to upper teens. More than sufficient to support snow or sleet at onset. If we even get 1" of snow or sleet, then that will help keep the atmosphere "refrigerated", so-to-speak, and may actually enhance the ZR threat since surface levels won't warm much at all.

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
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Rapid influx of 850mb warming

 

To show the force of the warmer air starting to flood in at the 850mb level, as of 7:45am this morning Mount Mitchell has rising to 30.6 degrees whereas just to the NE, Grandfather Mountain is still at 7.5 degrees and Beech is at 10.3 degrees.

 

Winds at Mitchell are West at 21 and at Grandfather they are on the edge of turning from the SE to the West

 

Z9uwkTk.png

 

q437Xwh.jpg

 

LmyLbLH.jpg

 

bmxg2Lu.png

 

Classic CAD

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Tacoma

Tacoma

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Posted

story of this terrible winter. Go figure, we could finish below normal on temps and above average on precip and well below normal on snow.

i know can you believe we're so cold all week and then moisture coming up for the weekend it warms up and rains.  what in the hell is wrong with this winter,  its terrible if you want some snow.

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