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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

This sucks. We looked good for a nice 8-12 snowstorm just 24 hours ago with 90% props from the euro ensembles of at least 6". Now we are looking at little snow and lots of sleet and ice.

i agree franklin, thought we had a good shot at a big snow event,  maybe this thing will trend more south tonight and put us in the heavy snow area.

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

GSP still has us in a Winter Storm Warning for 3-6 inches of snow yet has moved all their percentages of 4" or greater to Kentucky and Virginia. 

 

Anyone have a map of the RGEM that people are saying trended south? 

 

Probably don't want to see it...looks quite warm. No snow as far as I can tell.

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Met1985

Met1985

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WSW here is calling for 4 to 6 inches of snow then sleet and freezing rain after that. And 2 to 4 as you go SW with more freezing rain. Asheville's WSW calls for 2 to 4 with a 1/4 of ice.

 

I don't remember seeing so many different warnings for such a small area.

Yeah a lot of different little warnings.
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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

I had a low of -4 last night, a high today of 14.2, and is back down to 12.7, with a low tonight forecasted to be 5. If it's too warm to get snow with those temps, I don't think it ever will again. That's the best my area can do. 

i will agree what gives with these kind of temps.  if we don't get snow with these temps when do we get snow, lordy.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

I had a low of -4 last night, a high today of 14.2, and is back down to 12.7, with a low tonight forecasted to be 5. If it's too warm to get snow with those temps, I don't think it ever will again. That's the best my area can do.

Don't forget to get snow you need the entire atmospheric column to be below freezing, not just the surface. You can have temperatures of -50 at the surface and still get sleet or freezing rain if the warm nose pokes into the cold column. That's what's happening here. Super cold surface layer but very warm aloft. Classic ice setup.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I had a low of -4 last night, a high today of 14.2, and is back down to 12.7, with a low tonight forecasted to be 5. If it's too warm to get snow with those temps, I don't think it ever will again. That's the best my area can do.

lol preach it Joe! Down to 17 in mby. I have seen these scenarios many times only to bust on the high end of the snow totals.
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WNC_Fort

WNC_Fort

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Is WAA a common problem for the mountains? Also this may be a dumb question for some of you more experienced guys but why on a majority of the models does there seem to be a "hole" over Asheville and the middle of Buncombe County? To the east and west there is significantly more snow than the city itself. 

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

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Is WAA a common problem for the mountains? Also this may be a dumb question for some of you more experienced guys but why on a majority of the models does there seem to be a "hole" over Asheville and the middle of Buncombe County? To the east and west there is significantly more snow than the city itself. 

 

 

Asheville is in a valley between high mtn ranges. It has lower ave precip than many places in the state. However, that model minimum shows up many times but is not realized in ground truth. But, bottom line, Asheville's location lends itself to less overall precip.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
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Is WAA a common problem for the mountains? Also this may be a dumb question for some of you more experienced guys but why on a majority of the models does there seem to be a "hole" over Asheville and the middle of Buncombe County? To the east and west there is significantly more snow than the city itself.

That "hole" is a mountain rain shadow. Buncombe county is one of the driest places in the state because of the surrounding mountains. It's like a bowl and the precip can't get over the lip. It's perhaps a bit exaggerated here, but it's a real feature and yes it usually does verify less than surrounding areas. Especially the French Broad Valley. If you can get a place in southwest Buncombe county or far eastern Buncombe then the rain shadow is far less an issue because of the topography on the edges of the county.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
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Asheville is in a valley between high mtn ranges. It has lower ave precip than many places in the state. However, that model minimum shows up many times but is not realized in ground truth. But, bottom line, Asheville's location lends itself to less overall precip.

Yep beat me to it! Lol

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Originally posted in the wrong thread, but...

 

Look like I'm on UNCA's weather balloon duty all day long tomorrow. We'll be launching every 3 hours throughout the event starting at 7 am tomorrow morning and we got 10 launches planned so far. I think soundings will be available on UNCA's Atmospheric Sciences website somewhere.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

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lol preach it Joe! Down to 17 in mby. I have seen these scenarios many times only to bust on the high end of the snow totals.

I'll agree I've seen this forecast before to end up as all snow and a lot of it, more than once.  :snowing: GSP does a good job with these here mtns. but I'm not sure they know right now what the predominant form of the precip will be.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

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what time do we think the precip will move in.  I drive a school bus in Buncombe County and was wandering what the school officials will do tomorrow if the snow hasn't started by the time the buses roll.  we roll at 5:45.  I would think with the certainty of a storm and what ever falls will surely stick as cold as its been if the buses get caught out trying to take the kids home and the weather has started we will have a mess on our hands.  almost think a 2 hour delay would be in line and see where the precip is on wheather to close or not.

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
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I'm curious what everyone here thinks as we come to the final stretch. It certainly seems like there's a consensus of some front end snow followed by ice. I'm particularly questioning the amount of ice as GSP currently is forecasting around a quarter of an inch, but the GFS and NAM imply double that.

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hoi_polloi9

hoi_polloi9

Posted
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what time do we think the precip will move in.  I drive a school bus in Buncombe County and was wandering what the school officials will do tomorrow if the snow hasn't started by the time the buses roll.  we roll at 5:45.  I would think with the certainty of a storm and what ever falls will surely stick as cold as its been if the buses get caught out trying to take the kids home and the weather has started we will have a mess on our hands.  almost think a 2 hour delay would be in line and see where the precip is on wheather to close or not.

 

 

Tomorrow is an early release day for the whole county, so I have no idea how they are going to handle this.  I suspect they'll close school before doing any delays.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

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Tomorrow is an early release day for the whole county, so I have no idea how they are going to handle this.  I suspect they'll close school before doing any delays.

this is true with a early release tomorrow I bet they'll close instead of trying to chance getting the buses stuck out in the weather especially if the precip is close.

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

15z SREF was U-G-L-Y on BUFKIT with about 0.8 inch of ice of Asheville. I'll post 21z mean later on here.

 

SPC meso analysis showing the high @1034mb with the LP @1006 whereas the 15z SREF initiates with a hp of 1032mb and LP @1008.  Not sure if it will have too much baring but it also looks a tad slower with the low then where meso analysis shows it currently.  Interesting nonetheless.

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