NavarreDon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Warnings up for the entire area with varying degrees of both snow & ice. Going to be a interesting week for you fellas. Stay safe! Meanwhile it's a chilly 67° imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 This sucks. We looked good for a nice 8-12 snowstorm just 24 hours ago with 90% props from the euro ensembles of at least 6". Now we are looking at little snow and lots of sleet and ice.Yeah I think all the upgrades to the models are really not helping. Such swings in just 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah I think all the upgrades to the models are really not helping. Such swings in just 24 hours. I disagree. I have noticed a much higher level of confusion, at shorter ranges, than ever before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I disagree. I have noticed a much higher level of confusion, at shorter ranges, than ever before.Yeah that's a good point. Well all we can do know is wait and see. What falls falls. Time to get it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This sucks. We looked good for a nice 8-12 snowstorm just 24 hours ago with 90% props from the euro ensembles of at least 6". Now we are looking at little snow and lots of sleet and ice. i agree franklin, thought we had a good shot at a big snow event, maybe this thing will trend more south tonight and put us in the heavy snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GSP still has us in a Winter Storm Warning for 3-6 inches of snow yet has moved all their percentages of 4" or greater to Kentucky and Virginia. Anyone have a map of the RGEM that people are saying trended south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 you would think we had plenty of cold air in place, just don't quite understand with all the cold temps where the snow is and no freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 WSW here is calling for 4 to 6 inches of snow then sleet and freezing rain after that. And 2 to 4 as you go SW with more freezing rain. Asheville's WSW calls for 2 to 4 with a 1/4 of ice. I don't remember seeing so many different warnings for such a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GSP still has us in a Winter Storm Warning for 3-6 inches of snow yet has moved all their percentages of 4" or greater to Kentucky and Virginia. Anyone have a map of the RGEM that people are saying trended south? Probably don't want to see it...looks quite warm. No snow as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 WSW here is calling for 4 to 6 inches of snow then sleet and freezing rain after that. And 2 to 4 as you go SW with more freezing rain. Asheville's WSW calls for 2 to 4 with a 1/4 of ice. I don't remember seeing so many different warnings for such a small area. Yeah a lot of different little warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I had a low of -4 last night, a high today of 14.2, and is back down to 12.7, with a low tonight forecasted to be 5. If it's too warm to get snow with those temps, I don't think it ever will again. That's the best my area can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I had a low of -4 last night, a high today of 14.2, and is back down to 12.7, with a low tonight forecasted to be 5. If it's too warm to get snow with those temps, I don't think it ever will again. That's the best my area can do. i will agree what gives with these kind of temps. if we don't get snow with these temps when do we get snow, lordy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I had a low of -4 last night, a high today of 14.2, and is back down to 12.7, with a low tonight forecasted to be 5. If it's too warm to get snow with those temps, I don't think it ever will again. That's the best my area can do. Don't forget to get snow you need the entire atmospheric column to be below freezing, not just the surface. You can have temperatures of -50 at the surface and still get sleet or freezing rain if the warm nose pokes into the cold column. That's what's happening here. Super cold surface layer but very warm aloft. Classic ice setup. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I had a low of -4 last night, a high today of 14.2, and is back down to 12.7, with a low tonight forecasted to be 5. If it's too warm to get snow with those temps, I don't think it ever will again. That's the best my area can do.lol preach it Joe! Down to 17 in mby. I have seen these scenarios many times only to bust on the high end of the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is WAA a common problem for the mountains? Also this may be a dumb question for some of you more experienced guys but why on a majority of the models does there seem to be a "hole" over Asheville and the middle of Buncombe County? To the east and west there is significantly more snow than the city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is WAA a common problem for the mountains? Also this may be a dumb question for some of you more experienced guys but why on a majority of the models does there seem to be a "hole" over Asheville and the middle of Buncombe County? To the east and west there is significantly more snow than the city itself. Asheville is in a valley between high mtn ranges. It has lower ave precip than many places in the state. However, that model minimum shows up many times but is not realized in ground truth. But, bottom line, Asheville's location lends itself to less overall precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is WAA a common problem for the mountains? Also this may be a dumb question for some of you more experienced guys but why on a majority of the models does there seem to be a "hole" over Asheville and the middle of Buncombe County? To the east and west there is significantly more snow than the city itself. That "hole" is a mountain rain shadow. Buncombe county is one of the driest places in the state because of the surrounding mountains. It's like a bowl and the precip can't get over the lip. It's perhaps a bit exaggerated here, but it's a real feature and yes it usually does verify less than surrounding areas. Especially the French Broad Valley. If you can get a place in southwest Buncombe county or far eastern Buncombe then the rain shadow is far less an issue because of the topography on the edges of the county. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Asheville is in a valley between high mtn ranges. It has lower ave precip than many places in the state. However, that model minimum shows up many times but is not realized in ground truth. But, bottom line, Asheville's location lends itself to less overall precip. Yep beat me to it! Lol Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yep beat me to it! Lol Sent from my iPad I think your explanation covers it a little better. Hopefully, we will avoid the snow hole. It will not hurt my feelings to miss the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Originally posted in the wrong thread, but... Look like I'm on UNCA's weather balloon duty all day long tomorrow. We'll be launching every 3 hours throughout the event starting at 7 am tomorrow morning and we got 10 launches planned so far. I think soundings will be available on UNCA's Atmospheric Sciences website somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 lol preach it Joe! Down to 17 in mby. I have seen these scenarios many times only to bust on the high end of the snow totals. I'll agree I've seen this forecast before to end up as all snow and a lot of it, more than once. GSP does a good job with these here mtns. but I'm not sure they know right now what the predominant form of the precip will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 what time do we think the precip will move in. I drive a school bus in Buncombe County and was wandering what the school officials will do tomorrow if the snow hasn't started by the time the buses roll. we roll at 5:45. I would think with the certainty of a storm and what ever falls will surely stick as cold as its been if the buses get caught out trying to take the kids home and the weather has started we will have a mess on our hands. almost think a 2 hour delay would be in line and see where the precip is on wheather to close or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm curious what everyone here thinks as we come to the final stretch. It certainly seems like there's a consensus of some front end snow followed by ice. I'm particularly questioning the amount of ice as GSP currently is forecasting around a quarter of an inch, but the GFS and NAM imply double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoi_polloi9 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 what time do we think the precip will move in. I drive a school bus in Buncombe County and was wandering what the school officials will do tomorrow if the snow hasn't started by the time the buses roll. we roll at 5:45. I would think with the certainty of a storm and what ever falls will surely stick as cold as its been if the buses get caught out trying to take the kids home and the weather has started we will have a mess on our hands. almost think a 2 hour delay would be in line and see where the precip is on wheather to close or not. Tomorrow is an early release day for the whole county, so I have no idea how they are going to handle this. I suspect they'll close school before doing any delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 FWIW The Weather Channel just said Asheville cancelled school...city/county? IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Tomorrow is an early release day for the whole county, so I have no idea how they are going to handle this. I suspect they'll close school before doing any delays. this is true with a early release tomorrow I bet they'll close instead of trying to chance getting the buses stuck out in the weather especially if the precip is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 School closings http://www.wlos.com/weather/features/closings-and-delays/#.VOFISvnF9V1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 15z SREF was U-G-L-Y on BUFKIT with about 0.8 inch of ice of Asheville. I'll post 21z mean later on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 15z SREF was U-G-L-Y on BUFKIT with about 0.8 inch of ice of Asheville. I'll post 21z mean later on here. SPC meso analysis showing the high @1034mb with the LP @1006 whereas the 15z SREF initiates with a hp of 1032mb and LP @1008. Not sure if it will have too much baring but it also looks a tad slower with the low then where meso analysis shows it currently. Interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is an incredibly dry air mass that is over us now. How much moisture are we going to lose to overcome it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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