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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Met1985

Met1985

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Holy moly guacamole. 09Z SREF looks downright dangerous for the mountains. Many members have total QPF 1.25-1.75" and only 1" of snow. So what? So that's a ****load of freezing rain and sleet. Ptype indicated only 20% chance of snow but near 90% chance of sleet and at least 50% chance of freezing rain. Wow. I am speechless.

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that's very concerning when thinking about power and trees being down. That would cripple the mountains.
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Met1985

Met1985

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Even a 1/4" of ice would be crippling. I don't want to see what 1.25" looks like.

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I agree. It has been years since we have seen a severe ice storm Especially when you lay snow down before ice then super cold and wind. Today's model runs will be telling. Had a low of negative 1 with a half inch of snow in the ground. Ground temp is going to be primed for freezing.
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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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Wow. Negative 4.1 last night with a wind gust at 5 am of 41. That put the wind chill at -34.7. GladI was in bed with the electric blanket cranked up.

 

It's so sad that even 24 hours away we have no clue what this storm is going to do. I bet in the 1950's they could have done just as well with their forecasts.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Wow. Negative 4.1 last night with a wind gust at 5 am of 41. That put the wind chill at -34.7. GladI was in bed with the electric blanket cranked up.

It's so sad that even 24 hours away we have no clue what this storm is going to do. I bet in the 1950's they could have done just as well with their forecasts.

I agree Joe. Very frustrating that we still have lots of movement with the models and the spread is pretty great still.
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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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I agree. It has been years since we have seen a severe ice storm Especially when you lay snow down before ice then super cold and wind. Today's model runs will be telling. Had a low of negative 1 with a half inch of snow in the ground. Ground temp is going to be primed for freezing.

 

 

I think what is being overlooked a little bit is the cold that is behind this storm. If an storm ice does happen, the cold will severely slow down the recovery. People could be days, if not a week or more without power. With the shotty power grid we have in Yancey Co., courtesy of French Broad Co-op, who knows. It takes them a day or more to replace a transformer if it blows. I had an outage a couple years ago and they actually told me "we'll come check on it when it warms up a bit".  :axe:

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

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The last real freezing rain event I remember in Asheville was in '96. Freezing rain covered by a few inches of powder. I had a bunch of pine trees in my back year popping and falling all night long with bitter cold following. Sounds similar to this. I honestly cannot remember a pure sleet storm here.I am sure that we have had one, but it is not in my 50 year memory bank.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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I think is was 1998 or 99, we had about 3 inches of sleet with about 4 " of snow on top and it was a nightmare. The secondary roads were not plowed until they were pretty well traveled so it was compacted to the point it couldn't be plowed. It was real cold after that storm so some roads had ice on them for a few weeks.

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Hvward

Hvward

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And the 12z GFS reels us all back in.  Column soundings for AVL look to be supportive of snow on the GFS through 10pm tomorrow night.  A slight warm nose appears around 800mb-850mb but only warms to .5-1 degree c so not sure if that will even be enough to provide much melting.  If it were to not be snow, it would most likely be sleet.  It looks like a widespread 4"-6" is still possible but the threat of ice is more prevalent at this point in time compared to what was shown yesterday.  Lol not to be cliche, but this beginning to look like a nowcast event with the NAM & GFS so far apart.

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jacobr57

jacobr57

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And the 12z GFS reels us all back in.  Column soundings for AVL look to be supportive of snow on the GFS through 10pm tomorrow night.  A slight warm nose appears around 800mb-850mb but only warms to .5-1 degree c so not sure if that will even be enough to provide much melting.  If it were to not be snow, it would most likely be sleet.  It looks like a widespread 4"-6" is still possible but the threat of ice is more prevalent at this point in time compared to what was shown yesterday.  Lol not to be cliche, but this beginning to look like a nowcast event with the NAM & GFS so far apart.

 

It seems like some of the models are starting to pick up on a stronger CAD.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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And the 12z GFS reels us all back in. Column soundings for AVL look to be supportive of snow on the GFS through 10pm tomorrow night. A slight warm nose appears around 800mb-850mb but only warms to .5-1 degree c so not sure if that will even be enough to provide much melting. If it were to not be snow, it would most likely be sleet. It looks like a widespread 4"-6" is still possible but the threat of ice is more prevalent at this point in time compared to what was shown yesterday. Lol not to be cliche, but this beginning to look like a nowcast event with the NAM & GFS so far apart.

So models trended as I thought they would...a little more south. Now it's a timing issue. Will there be school tomorrow or can I sleep in? Lol

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jburns

jburns

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What are your thoughts on start time?

See, here is a perfectly simple example of the difference between the mountains and the rest of us.  You guys want to know, what the start time will be.  The rest of us want to know, if there will be a start time.   Sigh.  I loved my years in Boone.  :)

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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

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See, here is a perfectly simple example of the difference between the mountains and the rest of us. You guys want to know, what the start time will be. The rest of us want to know, if there will be a start time. Sigh. I loved my years in Boone. :)

Haha very true, I love it up here...we had a great snow yesterday as it was probably the best one we have had all season.....until tomorrow :)

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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See, here is a perfectly simple example of the difference between the mountains and the rest of us.  You guys want to know, what the start time will be.  The rest of us want to know, if there will be a start time.   Sigh.  I loved my years in Boone.   :)

 

It's why I chose UNC-Asheville over UNC-Charlotte, jburns :) Still would've chose UNC-Asheville over NC State had I've been accepted to NC State (I got wait-listed so it's not like I got rejected) so I don't have to deal with precip-type battles in ENC.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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Ugh. 12Z Euro not doing the mountains any favors. Maybe 1/2" of snow total from Franklin to Asheville. Only 1-2" for Boone. The rest of the QPF is a wintery mix.

With all the 12Z data in, our goose is cooked if you want snow. Get your flashlights ready folks. We are in store for a wild ice storm here. Perhaps the first real good one in 20 years.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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Ugh. 12Z Euro not doing the mountains any favors. Maybe 1/2" of snow total from Franklin to Asheville. Only 1-2" for Boone. The rest of the QPF is a wintery mix.

With all the 12Z data in, our goose is cooked if you want snow. Get your flashlights ready folks. We are in store for a wild ice storm here. Perhaps the first real good one in 20 years.

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Might be a little soon to call in given models' handling of cold air damming in place. I do agree it's time to grab flashlights just in case.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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Well whatever we get tomorrow it sure is going to stick around. Man the temps with the next arctic blast is for real. Really from here on out we are in nowcast just pretty much waiting and seeing what falls. Also boy s it cold today. Right know we are sitting at 11 degrees.

Maybe. If we don't get the snow or sleet to cover the ground at least 2" deep, the arctic blast won't be nearly as bad as the models portray. Gotta have snow to go below zero in late Feb.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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This sucks. We looked good for a nice 8-12 snowstorm just 24 hours ago with 90% props from the euro ensembles of at least 6". Now we are looking at little snow and lots of sleet and ice.

Yep. I think I'll have to go to the store and prep for a prolonged power outage. 15Z SREF shows a devastating ice storm and that's 3 runs in a row now showing that with 18 hours to go until precip starts.

Very unfortunate for those of us who like snow. Looks like DC will cash in instead of us.

I just can't wrap my ahead around inches of sleet. I've never seen that happen around here. It's almost always snow or freezing rain.

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