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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

Posted
Posted

I'm curious what all of your thoughts are for our big event. The 12z gfs and gefa look like night and day for our area.

I think the mtns are sitting about as good as possible at this point. The gfs looked really odd with how the moisture just stops BEFORE it even got to the mountains and then plastered central and eastern NC. I think the UKMET, NAVGEM, and now the Euro have the right idea. The euros bias of holding energy back has been what's caused it to be so far south. This next week looks to be one of our best weeks of winter in a long time. Let's play ball boys!

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
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I think the mtns are sitting about as good as possible at this point. The gfs looked really odd with how the moisture just stops BEFORE it even got to the mountains and then plastered central and eastern NC. I think the UKMET, NAVGEM, and now the Euro have the right idea. The euros bias of holding energy back has been what's caused it to be so far south. This next week looks to be one of our best weeks of winter in a long time. Let's play ball boys!

 

I haven't seen the Ukie (weatherbell never posted the 0z and not sure about the 12z). What did it look like?

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

I'm curious what all of your thoughts are for our big event. The 12z gfs and gefa look like night and day for our area.

NAM, Euro, UKMET, and SREF all show measurable snow in the mountains early next week. GFS is the outlier but has a bad history of not properly handling southwest lows.

The main thread is getting messy, but consensus is building for a good hit Monday into Tuesday for the mountains. It's a bit early yet for amounts until QPF can get more consistent across the models, but the upper air patterns are fairly well aligned.

So shave a bit off the NAM, add a bit to the Euro and blend in the UKMET. I think 5-9" is a good bet. I'll say nobody gets less than 3", with 90% certainty.

A deep snowpack means we will be in trouble later in the week for a brutal arctic outbreak with minimum temperatures shattering daily records and maybe even all-time coldest February mins. Incredible!!

Hop aboard folks and buckle up. Winter is staging a roaring comeback end of this month well into March.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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WNC_Fort

WNC_Fort

Posted
Posted

NAM, Euro, UKMET, and SREF all show measurable snow in the mountains early next week. GFS is the outlier but has a bad history of not properly handling southwest lows.

The main thread is getting messy, but consensus is building for a good hit Monday into Tuesday for the mountains. It's a bit early yet for amounts until QPF can get more consistent across the models, but the upper air patterns are fairly well aligned.

So shave a bit off the NAM, add a bit to the Euro and blend in the UKMET. I think 5-9" is a good bet. I'll say nobody gets less than 3", with 90% certainty.

A deep snowpack means we will be in trouble later in the week for a brutal arctic outbreak with minimum temperatures shattering daily records and maybe even all-time coldest February mins. Incredible!!

Hop aboard folks and buckle up. Winter is staging a roaring comeback end of this month well into March.

Sent from my iPad

Hate to ask but do you see potential in the later week storm as well?
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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
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NAM, Euro, UKMET, and SREF all show measurable snow in the mountains early next week. GFS is the outlier but has a bad history of not properly handling southwest lows.

The main thread is getting messy, but consensus is building for a good hit Monday into Tuesday for the mountains. It's a bit early yet for amounts until QPF can get more consistent across the models, but the upper air patterns are fairly well aligned.

So shave a bit off the NAM, add a bit to the Euro and blend in the UKMET. I think 5-9" is a good bet. I'll say nobody gets less than 3", with 90% certainty.

A deep snowpack means we will be in trouble later in the week for a brutal arctic outbreak with minimum temperatures shattering daily records and maybe even all-time coldest February mins. Incredible!!

Hop aboard folks and buckle up. Winter is staging a roaring comeback end of this month well into March.

Sent from my iPad

solid analysis HT! Wooo!
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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

NAM, Euro, UKMET, and SREF all show measurable snow in the mountains early next week. GFS is the outlier but has a bad history of not properly handling southwest lows.

The main thread is getting messy, but consensus is building for a good hit Monday into Tuesday for the mountains. It's a bit early yet for amounts until QPF can get more consistent across the models, but the upper air patterns are fairly well aligned.

So shave a bit off the NAM, add a bit to the Euro and blend in the UKMET. I think 5-9" is a good bet. I'll say nobody gets less than 3", with 90% certainty.

A deep snowpack means we will be in trouble later in the week for a brutal arctic outbreak with minimum temperatures shattering daily records and maybe even all-time coldest February mins. Incredible!!

Hop aboard folks and buckle up. Winter is staging a roaring comeback end of this month well into March.

Sent from my iPad

 

 

Thanks for the analysis HT and I 100% agree with all of the above!  Should be a fun time to live in the mountains over the next few weeks.

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wncsnow

wncsnow

Posted
Posted

I agree with wncsnow. That's why I'm not going all in with this system, at least for our part of the foothills. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed when it comes to snow totals.

+1000 This isn't your typical miller A gulf bomb... its overrunning, multiple pieces of energy, no set track yet even.. tonight runs should be interesting to say the least.. Right now if I had to make a call I would go 4-6 for the majority of the mountains and 2-4 for the foothills and western piedmont.

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