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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Obs this morning are a half inch of snow with a temp of 11 degrees with light flurries. Cautiously optimistic of this storm.

 

I really like the set up with this upcoming system. Think you will see some ticks north & the Mnts will jackpot with it. Questions remain on timing and qpf but, it's the best look I have seen for WNC all winter. Good luck, I will be rooting for you all to cash. I will pop in & out to give my 2 cents.....err maybe .5 cents worth.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I really like the set up with this upcoming system. Think you will see some ticks north & the Mnts will jackpot with it. Questions remain on timing and qpf but, it's the best look I have seen for WNC all winter. Good luck, I will be rooting for you all to cash. I will pop in & out to give my 2 cents.....err maybe .5 cents worth.

Thanks Don. I will feel better about this storm come Sunday for us. A lot of things to iron out.
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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

Posted
Posted

Take with grain of salt but 18z GFS shows temperatures as low as -28f over the NC/TN Border areanext Thursday morning. And some -10f down in the foothills.

YyYqHUC.png

I like it, I also think the foothills and Mtns are sitting great for sig accumulations. Next Friday's polar plunge at Duck Pond at ASU should also be interesting....

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

SREF look rather impressive and Euro-like tonight with 4-6 inches for WNC. Even without two extreme outliers (mean is 4.6 inches with those two), it's still a solid 3.5 inches for city of Asheville and most members are quickly rising again for 2nd wave as of 12z Tuesday. Means of Boone and Franklin are even more impressive, though!

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

SREF look rather impressive and Euro-like tonight with 4-6 inches for WNC. Even without two extreme outliers (mean is 4.6 inches with those two), it's still a solid 3.5 inches for city of Asheville and most members are quickly rising again for 2nd wave as of 12z Tuesday. Means of Boone and Franklin are even more impressive, though!

 

Yea, it looks like the 2nd wave is just starting to be captured at the very end of the SREF range.

 

Also, the 0z NAM seems to be coming in really wet (though obviously take that with a grain of salt as it's the end of the NAM run).

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
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Yea, it looks like the 2nd wave is just starting to be captured at the very end of the SREF range.

 

Also, the 0z NAM seems to be coming in really wet (though obviously take that with a grain of salt as it's the end of the NAM run).

 

We got NAM'd on that run, but it's a good storm for us as long as we stay below freezing on all levels (which we probably will because of wet-bulb temperature).

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

GSP short & long term.....get ready CWFA!

 

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY...A VERY COMPLICATED SHORT RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...I USED A
COMPROMISE OF THE 0Z ECMWF AND THE 0Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NW THROUGH THE DAY...SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY DURING THE MORNING WITH
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING COLD LLVL
THICKNESSES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
ON SUNDAY. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
MTNS TO 30 TO 35 DEGREES EAST. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MID JANUARY
AVERAGES...EASILY EXCEEDING THE THRESHOLD FOR CONSIDERED THE FIRST
DAY OF THE UPCOMING COLD WAVE. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF A MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIKELY SLIDE
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA...RIDGING SW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES EAST. BY DAYBREAK...A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS EAST TX/LA AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE
ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
AN INVERTED TROF AND REGION OF JET DIVERGENCE...EXTENDING AS FAR NE
AS THE GREAT TN VALLEY BY 12Z MON. THE BAND OF FORCING AND MOISTURE
SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MON. I WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO CHC ALONG THE
I-77 CORRIDOR BY MON AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL
THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ONE OF
THE GREATEST CHALLENGES IS DISCERNING THE QPF ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE
RANGES ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT...TO THE POINT THAT A STRAIGHT
COMPROMISE APPEARS TOO HIGH. I WILL RELY ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RESULT INDICATES THAT THE
CWA COULD HAVE A COATING OF LIGHT SNOW BY SUNSET MON. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERED AS THE SECOND DAY OF THE
COLD WAVE.

MONDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY TAKES A LEAP UPWARD. THE ECMWF INDICATES
THAT DRY AIR WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST...LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA DRY BY SUNRISE. THE GFS INDICATES THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER OF INSITU CAD EVENT. IT IS A VERY TOUGH CALL...BUT
THE YEARS I HAVE BEEN AT THIS DESK...I HAVE SEEN THE GIVEN GFS
SCENARIO OF A MILLER A/CAD PLAY OUT MORE OFTEN THAN THE ECMWF/S CLEAN
LOW DEPARTURE. THIS APPROACH WILL CREATE PROBLEMS WITH P-TYPES...AS
A WARM NOSE SLIDE NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW...CREATING A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EAST OF THE MTNS. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH PRECIP FALLING AS A COLD RAIN EAST OF THE
MTNS TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A
NOREASTER AND CAA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION....MIXING PRECIP BACK
TO SNOW. ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DRY...WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. STORM TOTAL SNOW AND ICE
FORECAST ARE UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WINTER STORM
CRITERIA SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS ACROSS
THE LAKELANDS OF SC/GA WILL SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN...YIELDING LOWER
AMOUNTS OF SNOW. THE FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH WPC SNOW
AND ICE VALUES AND CIPS ANALOG MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS VERY COLD.
THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTS THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
I HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER...WITH -20C ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
PROVIDED A LINGERING SNOWPACK...MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY FALL
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY REACH DAILY RECORD LOW
VALUES FROM 1958. WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE THRESHOLD TO HIGHLIGHT
WIND CHILLS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE MTNS
WITH ADVISORY ACROSS THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT...FEATURING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS QUITE WET AND
COLD...THE GFS IS MORE MODERATE. I WILL INTRODUCE SCHC POPS FOR SNOW.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Great read guys and yeah pretty crazy. Personally I think today is going to be pretty dry. I am saying 1 to 3 inches and that is about it. The northern mountains should do well with a longer period of snow I think then the bottom drops out. Be careful out there and bundle up. Take care of your animals also.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
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I don't know guys. Something has me worried about this storm. If I read it right, even Ray said maybe as little as 1 inch with the first wave, and possibly nothing with the next one on Tues. I think there is an extreme bust potential here.That's probably why GSP is being so conservative.

 

BUT, as most of you know, I have zero knowledge about weather. Soooo......

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

I don't know guys. Something has me worried about this storm. If I read it right, even Ray said maybe as little as 1 inch with the first wave, and possibly nothing with the next one on Tues. I think there is an extreme bust potential here.That's probably why GSP is being so conservative.

 

BUT, as most of you know, I have zero knowledge about weather. Soooo......

 

This should may you feel better :)

 

Asheville is at 50% for at least 4 inches from WPC forecasters for first wave.

 

pCTQ8QP.png

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