Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 From GSP long range discussion... .........,,,,,,,READERS ARE STRONGLY CAUTIONED TO MANAGE THEIR EXPECTATIONS UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. Ha! I wonder if they wrote that specifically for this forum ! lol probably! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS is almost too far south track-wise for our liking. We still get good snow from 18z GFS but we're close to not getting paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Finally starting to look more like winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS is almost too far south track-wise for our liking. We still get good snow from 18z GFS but we're close to not getting paste job.it will come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS is almost too far south track-wise for our liking. We still get good snow from 18z GFS but we're close to not getting paste job. I've been worried about that ever since models started trending south. I'd be glad for them, but to be honest, I'll be pissed if Charlotte and Raleigh got dumped on and we got nothing. But that's been our type of luck this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've been worried about that ever since models started trending south. I'd be glad for them, but to be honest, I'll be pissed if Charlotte and Raleigh got dumped on and we got nothing. But that's been our type of luck this winter. Yeah, I would be too. To be fair, I went sledding in 7" of snow back in November while they haven't seen a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it will come north What would be our most preferred track? Something like ATL to GSP to GSO ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it will come north When I lived in ENC, these storms usually trends NW at the last moment and crushes WNC so I'm counting on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 it will come northYeah I agree franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Finally starting to look more like winter ! nice picks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What would be our most preferred track? Something like ATL to GSP to GSO ?Columbus ga, to Columbia to Raleigh would be the best. Euro ensemble mean is close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Something like this joe. This is basically the euro run 51 times and here is the mean slp. Looks near Augusta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Way too early to start getting worried about a suppressed system, especially based on one (18z GFS) run. But FWIW the 18z GEFS is much better for WNC compared to the OP. On a side note, all aboard the ARP3 plume?:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150212&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=AVL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.29467537419229&mLON=-85.5399671875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarvelMountain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Already 28 degrees here along the escarpment, with a stiff wind. Hope you guys get some white stuff. I want to drive north on Saturday and see something other than dead grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This is why I never feel confident about a storm until I see the first flakes! Now I'm worried about Charlotte and SC getting the snow while we get the shaft . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Interesting the radar is lighting up again in TN and low and behold it is snowing again moderately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Way too early to start getting worried about a suppressed system, especially based on one (18z GFS) run. But FWIW the 18z GEFS is much better for WNC compared to the OP. On a side note, all aboard the ARP3 plume?: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150212&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=AVL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.29467537419229&mLON=-85.5399671875&mTYP=roadmap I'm not too worry SREF and NAM should get interesting now we're entering their range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just wanted to drop in and wish my mountain brothers (and sisters) good luck early next week. Hope you guys get drilled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just wanted to drop in and wish my mountain brothers (and sisters) good luck early next week. Hope you guys get drilled! Thanks, man! Hopefully you guys can get into the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just wanted to drop in and wish my mountain brothers (and sisters) good luck early next week. Hope you guys get drilled!You to weathernut. I have dropping by yall forum about everyday and yall have had some great discussion. I am still not sold on this storm though. Let's get to Sunday before we start really honking. Good luck to yall as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks, man! Hopefully you guys can get into the action! +2 :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Heavy snow know and laying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Roads turning white here know at the hospital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Something like this joe. This is basically the euro run 51 times and here is the mean slp. Looks near Augusta. eps_mslpa_noram_23.png Thanks Franky ! Just wanted to drop in and wish my mountain brothers (and sisters) good luck early next week. Hope you guys get drilled! That convenience store off of 321 next to the golf course sells some killer chicken livers. Good luck you as well. Roads turning white here know at the hospital. You in the hospital ? Get well, we need our thread captain for next week !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks Franky ! That convenience store off of 321 next to the golf course sells some killer chicken livers. Good luck you as well. You in the hospital ? Get well, we need our thread captain for next week !!!! No I work at the hospital. I am a Med rec tech in th ED department and I am in ministry school. I just got home and we have about a half inch of snow and snowing lightly with a temp of 13 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This storm is hard to pin down. Just when the GFS and GEM come south the GEFS and Ukie go north. The 0z GEFS is actually a slight improvement for WNC over the 18z, but it looks like that could be partially due to a couple of clipper systems after the main event. Still a long ways to go on this one but I feel like we're in a good position at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And.... we have some good agreement! Could it finally be happening, a snowstorm for the mtns? Stayed tuned let's not lose this one at the one yard line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Franklin has looked good in most model runs but as you move east the moisture seems to go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Franklin has looked good in most model runs but as you move east the moisture seems to go poof.euro ensemble mean still looks good for your area. Not as much as the southern mtns as we benefit from enhanced up slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Obs this morning are a half inch of snow with a temp of 11 degrees with light flurries. Cautiously optimistic of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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