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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
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Well certainly looks like there will be some sort of storm.  Really just too many moving parts at this range to pin things down.  I like the look of the CAD signature that seems to be showing up on more runs.  But we are basically still at a Day 6 event, so need to wait unitl Saturday at the earliest before we begin to really dissect the model runs.

 

No model of choice right now either.  Both GFS and Euro have backed off on the depth of the cold for Sunday and that has implications for next week.  It's a "wait and see" mode.

 

Most models have the wintry weather starting Monday night/into Tuesday morning so really we are looking at 4.5 days now.  We are about to reel this thing in.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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Most models have the wintry weather starting Monday night/into Tuesday morning so really we are looking at 4.5 days now.  We are about to reel this thing in.

 

I'm still pessimistic.  This entire winter season we have seen significant model changes even up to 24 hours out.  My rule of thumb is to not look at anything beyond Day 3 (72 hours out).  I have a strong feeling we will see more model changes with today's runs. 

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

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I'm still pessimistic.  This entire winter season we have seen significant model changes even up to 24 hours out.  My rule of thumb is to not look at anything beyond Day 3 (72 hours out).  I have a strong feeling we will see more model changes with today's runs. 

 

Well you're right!! 00Z GFS had the low in Arkansas, on the 12Z run today it rolls by the Superdome in New Orleans

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

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Today: Upper Plateau of Tenn has sticking snow. That bodes well for the favored locales of the NC High Country later today and this evening. Good luck!

 

Weekend: 12Z NAM marks the 3rd run (00/06/12) of better snow accumulation in the higher elevations Saturday night. Appears that the little warm up Saturday afternoon allows just a bit more moisture pre-front, available for the great squeeze out. Figure NWS and Ray will eventually trend up just a bit. Verbatim, esp with ratios, looking at 2-5 inches. But that may be only peaks above 4K. Ski areas will be mighty cold, very windy and crowded with holiday, but snow conditions may be a great Rocky Mountain High.

 

Next week is really difficult. Trend last 24 hr has been colder farther south track. Verbatim still includes some ice slop, but more snow start and finish. Advise extreme caution on models though as stated above, due to 2-3 pieces of energy, but keep hope alive!

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Met1985

Met1985

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Today: Upper Plateau of Tenn has sticking snow. That bodes well for the favored locales of the NC High Country later today and this evening. Good luck!

Weekend: 12Z NAM marks the 3rd run (00/06/12) of better snow accumulation in the higher elevations Saturday night. Appears that the little warm up Saturday afternoon allows just a bit more moisture pre-front, available for the great squeeze out. Figure NWS and Ray will eventually trend up just a bit. Verbatim, esp with ratios, looking at 2-5 inches. But that may be only peaks above 4K. Ski areas will be mighty cold, very windy and crowded with holiday, but snow conditions may be a great Rocky Mountain High.

Next week is really difficult. Trend last 24 hr has been colder farther south track. Verbatim still includes some ice slop, but more snow start and finish. Advise extreme caution on models though as stated above, due to 2-3 pieces of energy, but keep hope alive!

thanks for stopping by Jeff! Thanks for the rub down and yeah I like the look of this afternoon and this weekend.
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Met1985

Met1985

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Nice little dusting here but looks to dry up before long. GSP saying around 5, drops me to 30% chance after then. I'm tired of these little "blow throughs". Sure hope next week pans out.

Radar looks great Joe. Just look outside and don't worry what the NWS is saying. This event started late so it us going to go into late night just my opinion.
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