Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well certainly looks like there will be some sort of storm. Really just too many moving parts at this range to pin things down. I like the look of the CAD signature that seems to be showing up on more runs. But we are basically still at a Day 6 event, so need to wait unitl Saturday at the earliest before we begin to really dissect the model runs. No model of choice right now either. Both GFS and Euro have backed off on the depth of the cold for Sunday and that has implications for next week. It's a "wait and see" mode. Most models have the wintry weather starting Monday night/into Tuesday morning so really we are looking at 4.5 days now. We are about to reel this thing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Most models have the wintry weather starting Monday night/into Tuesday morning so really we are looking at 4.5 days now. We are about to reel this thing in. I'm still pessimistic. This entire winter season we have seen significant model changes even up to 24 hours out. My rule of thumb is to not look at anything beyond Day 3 (72 hours out). I have a strong feeling we will see more model changes with today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm still pessimistic. This entire winter season we have seen significant model changes even up to 24 hours out. My rule of thumb is to not look at anything beyond Day 3 (72 hours out). I have a strong feeling we will see more model changes with today's runs. Well you're right!! 00Z GFS had the low in Arkansas, on the 12Z run today it rolls by the Superdome in New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Today: Upper Plateau of Tenn has sticking snow. That bodes well for the favored locales of the NC High Country later today and this evening. Good luck! Weekend: 12Z NAM marks the 3rd run (00/06/12) of better snow accumulation in the higher elevations Saturday night. Appears that the little warm up Saturday afternoon allows just a bit more moisture pre-front, available for the great squeeze out. Figure NWS and Ray will eventually trend up just a bit. Verbatim, esp with ratios, looking at 2-5 inches. But that may be only peaks above 4K. Ski areas will be mighty cold, very windy and crowded with holiday, but snow conditions may be a great Rocky Mountain High. Next week is really difficult. Trend last 24 hr has been colder farther south track. Verbatim still includes some ice slop, but more snow start and finish. Advise extreme caution on models though as stated above, due to 2-3 pieces of energy, but keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Meanwhile, we're getting flurries again on campus. Nothing sticking to ground so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wooo! We have snow here at fines creek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Today: Upper Plateau of Tenn has sticking snow. That bodes well for the favored locales of the NC High Country later today and this evening. Good luck! Weekend: 12Z NAM marks the 3rd run (00/06/12) of better snow accumulation in the higher elevations Saturday night. Appears that the little warm up Saturday afternoon allows just a bit more moisture pre-front, available for the great squeeze out. Figure NWS and Ray will eventually trend up just a bit. Verbatim, esp with ratios, looking at 2-5 inches. But that may be only peaks above 4K. Ski areas will be mighty cold, very windy and crowded with holiday, but snow conditions may be a great Rocky Mountain High. Next week is really difficult. Trend last 24 hr has been colder farther south track. Verbatim still includes some ice slop, but more snow start and finish. Advise extreme caution on models though as stated above, due to 2-3 pieces of energy, but keep hope alive! thanks for stopping by Jeff! Thanks for the rub down and yeah I like the look of this afternoon and this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heavy heavy snow know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heavy heavy snow know!light snow has started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 light snow has started here.yeah its coming in a bit north North west so we are getting it a bit ahead of others. It is absolutely pounding here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Light snow here near the airport. Hearing that heavy snow is beginning to accumulate in Weaverville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Light snow here near the airport. Hearing that heavy snow is beginning to accumulate in Weaverville.would not be surprised. We are getting hammered right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's not really that impressive here on campus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's not really that impressive here on campus...sorry bro. Come to Hawood. Grass turning white here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's not really that impressive here on campus... Lol Debbie Downer. NWFS in the warmest part of the day is always impressive when it makes it to the valley. Regardless of whether it sticks or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heavy snow is now making it all the way to the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lol Debbie Downer. NWFS in the warmest part of the day is always impressive when it makes it to the valley. Regardless of whether it sticks or not. Sorry, not having a great day with schoolwork Last Monday really spoiled me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Been snowing pretty good for the past 30 min or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's not really that impressive here on campus... It was snowing pretty nicely on campus not too long ago but I can see the sun now. Last week was totally unexpected but a nice surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah snow has picked back up here at the hospital. Temps have plummeted. Know down to 18 degrees with heavy snow via the wife with about a half inch of snow on the ground. Ground is getting white at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nice little dusting here but looks to dry up before long. GSP saying around 5, drops me to 30% chance after then. I'm tired of these little "blow throughs". Sure hope next week pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nice little dusting here but looks to dry up before long. GSP saying around 5, drops me to 30% chance after then. I'm tired of these little "blow throughs". Sure hope next week pans out.Radar looks great Joe. Just look outside and don't worry what the NWS is saying. This event started late so it us going to go into late night just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Monster squall just came through Boone and now the sun is out. Around a 1/2" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Radar looks to be drying up in East Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Another big time squall in Boone, approaching 1" accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Partly sunny now but cold !!! It's 13.2 with a 22/29G wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Partly sunny now but cold !!! It's 13.2 with a 22/29G wind.that's crazy Joe. Below zero tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 that's crazy Joe. Below zero tonight. No doubt. Already some reports in the single digits (Beech, Sugar, Snake, etc.). The next several days are going to be pretty brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 No doubt. Already some reports in the single digits (Beech, Sugar, Snake, etc.). The next several days are going to be pretty brutal.yep I agree. This will be the coldest stretch of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 From GSP long range discussion... .........,,,,,,,READERS ARE STRONGLY CAUTIONED TO MANAGE THEIR EXPECTATIONS UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. Ha! I wonder if they wrote that specifically for this forum ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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