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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Met1985

Met1985

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  On 2/7/2015 at 12:09 PM, SnoJoe said:

Nice "balmy" morning here with a temp of 35.2. It's around 20 in the valley. I'm ready for a nice mid 50's day. I'm in the "if it's not going to snow, it might as well be warm" camp this late in the season.

Yeah Joe this weekend is going to be beautiful. Get out and enjoy! Man I do have spring fever. Been thinking of the beach a lot recently.
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Met1985

Met1985

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  On 2/8/2015 at 1:25 PM, SnoJoe said:

Wow ! Starting the morning at 43.3. How high will it go today. I'm going to thoroughly enjoy it. I think I'll just sit out on the deck in my underwear and soak it all in !!!!

lol I feel yeah Joe! I hate this is my weekend to work. Such a beautiful weekend. Spring fever is in the air!
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Met1985

Met1985

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  On 2/10/2015 at 1:42 AM, franklin NCwx said:

Euro ensembles increased the snowfall for the mtns on day 8-9 pretty decent signal for a storm. Let's see if it pans out.

Yeah good signs today. Temp has dropped 8 degrees in about 45 minutes here. I think we have a chance for snow Thursday night and for Saturday night and Sunday.
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Met1985

Met1985

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We have a dusting of sleep and snow this morning and we are currently getting snow right know. This week's looks to be brutal. I like our chances for snow Wednesday night through Thursday and also the weekend but the temps are going to be the big factor here I think. For Thursday and Friday we could see highs in the low to mid 20 and colder with lows around zero. The second wave looks colder. Could see highs in the teens and lows well below zero. Also GSP is honking about dangerous wind chills also. They are talking about wind chills in the negative teens but right know seems like we get colder.

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Met1985

Met1985

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  On 2/10/2015 at 3:30 PM, SnoJoe said:

From GSP long range......

 

....HIGH TEMPS MODERATE A LITTLE MONDAY...BUT REMAIN

10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE 2 DAY

AVERAGE TEMPS AS THEY COULD BE COLD ENUF TO REACH THE DEFINITION OF

A COLD WAVE.

 

 

What does that mean ? Seems like it will be a cold wave to me.

lol maybe a cold wave by definition is multiple days below normal to a certain point and right know we look to sustain quite a cold stretch from Thursday through about 7 to 10 days.
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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

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  On 2/10/2015 at 3:33 PM, Met1985 said:

lol maybe a cold wave by definition is multiple days below normal to a certain point and right know we look to sustain quite a cold stretch from Thursday through about 7 to 10 days.

I didn't understand their reasoning with that statement either. Why are they keeping an eye out for that?? Who cares if it meets the definition.or not? All I care about is the temps and precipitation chances. Maybe Isohume can explain.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Yeah Met I am liking the look for Thursday. I havent got to look at the 12z gfs but the 12z nam looked very favorable for a few hours of upslope. Hopefully someone in the valley can pick up a quick inch! LR looks great but I want to see the models agree on the threat within 3 days after all we have been through this year. Thank goodness for living in the mountains and NWF to keep us sain!

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isohume

isohume

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  On 2/10/2015 at 3:56 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Maybe Isohume can explain.

Here's the definition from our Winter Wx Ops Plan:

Eastern Region Supplement 02-2003 provides guidance on handling “cold waves” of extended temperatures well below normal. It states:

Empirical data suggests that when the average daily temperature is 12°F or more below normal mid-January average daily temperatures for 48 hours or longer, significant infrastructure impacts begin to occur. Significant impacts may include frozen water pipes (…) and warrant extra caution by emergency managers, fire departments, building managers, and the public at-large.

In line with this guidance, the normal mean daily temperatures for January 15 are:

Asheville Area...37

Charlotte Area...41

Greer Area.......42

So, we should issue a "cold-wave" outlook (in the HWO) when we have a couple of consecutive days of forecast average temps of:

AVL...25 (This has happened 265 times since 1869)*

CLT...29 (237 events since 1878)*

GSP...30 (222 events since 1890)*

*Recurrence statistics using XMAcis.

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

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  On 2/10/2015 at 6:00 PM, isohume said:

Here's the definition from our Winter Wx Ops Plan:

Eastern Region Supplement 02-2003 provides guidance on handling “cold waves” of extended temperatures well below normal. It states:

Empirical data suggests that when the average daily temperature is 12°F or more below normal mid-January average daily temperatures for 48 hours or longer, significant infrastructure impacts begin to occur. Significant impacts may include frozen water pipes (…) and warrant extra caution by emergency managers, fire departments, building managers, and the public at-large.

In line with this guidance, the normal mean daily temperatures for January 15 are:

Asheville Area...37

Charlotte Area...41

Greer Area.......42

So, we should issue a "cold-wave" outlook (in the HWO) when we have a couple of consecutive days of forecast average temps of:

AVL...25 (This has happened 265 times since 1869)*

CLT...29 (237 events since 1878)*

GSP...30 (222 events since 1890)*

*Recurrence statistics using XMAcis.

I was going to ask you about that on facebook. thanks for explaining!

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Met1985

Met1985

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  On 2/10/2015 at 6:00 PM, isohume said:

Here's the definition from our Winter Wx Ops Plan:

Eastern Region Supplement 02-2003 provides guidance on handling “cold waves” of extended temperatures well below normal. It states:

Empirical data suggests that when the average daily temperature is 12°F or more below normal mid-January average daily temperatures for 48 hours or longer, significant infrastructure impacts begin to occur. Significant impacts may include frozen water pipes (…) and warrant extra caution by emergency managers, fire departments, building managers, and the public at-large.

In line with this guidance, the normal mean daily temperatures for January 15 are:

Asheville Area...37

Charlotte Area...41

Greer Area.......42

So, we should issue a "cold-wave" outlook (in the HWO) when we have a couple of consecutive days of forecast average temps of:

AVL...25 (This has happened 265 times since 1869)*

CLT...29 (237 events since 1878)*

GSP...30 (222 events since 1890)*

*Recurrence statistics using XMAcis.

Great explanation isohum. Thanks for stopping by.
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