WxBlue Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 TN 143 goes south up to the NC/Tn line at Carvers Gap and NC 261 comes up from the south to meet at the State Line. TN DOT plows from one side and NC DOT plows up from the other side. Sometimes one side is plowed and one side is not plowed. Extreme caution is to be observed in this unpopulated area because you are up there above 6000' on your own with little if any cell signal whatsover. As always, know what you are doing and travel up there in preparation that you could get stuck if don't have the proper 4wd raised vehicle. It won't be this bad up there this weekend, but this picture from summittpost.org shows you what can occur up at Carvers Gaps. http://www.summitpost.org/roan-mountain-snow/365778 Yikes, thanks for the tip. I think it's wise to get there and enjoy first hour of snow before getting off the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 NWS Morristown TN That almost looks like it's be better to head up to Mt Guyot via Snake Den Ridge. However there aren't many views there and that's a bit of a climb. I still think odds are good at Mt Leconte but now I'm thinking they may not get as much as I previously thought. Choices choices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Looking forward to seeing some snow early on this winter. Uncle just got a house in Sapphire NC (3200 feet at his location) 3-4 miles from Lake Toxaway. Going to head up there from Atlanta tomorrow afternoon. Sapphire seems to be right on the edge of seeing snow or maybe just some flurries. Hoping the elevation above 3000 feet will help squeeze out at least an inch. If not then I am looking at places nearby that may see some snow and the best bet would seem to be Balsam Gap which is 44 miles from there. Happy Snow hunting everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Weatherbell Euro snowfall maps just gave KAVL 2.3". That at the airport so I would say 3" downtown wouldn't be crazy talk but who knows. Pumped to watch this unfold as this will be a very rare event given the track shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'll likely be making a trip up to Beech Mtn Saturday morning, and I'm surprised no one has mentioned the ASU home football game Saturday. That will certainly be a fun one.... http://gif.co/o1gb.gif Should be awesome! Welcome to mountains Georgia state Wish I was heading to this one. Nothing like a snowy Fall Saturday in Boone! We are going up on the 8th... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Clown map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Clown map... The snowfall accumulations seem to follow the path of the center of the upper low pretty well on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I started a new thread just for this event to help keep the confusion down... well... at least for me! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44779-lets-start-the-winter-off-with-a-bang/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Looking forward to seeing some snow early on this winter. Uncle just got a house in Sapphire NC (3200 feet at his location) 3-4 miles from Lake Toxaway. Going to head up there from Atlanta tomorrow afternoon. Sapphire seems to be right on the edge of seeing snow or maybe just some flurries. Hoping the elevation above 3000 feet will help squeeze out at least an inch. If not then I am looking at places nearby that may see some snow and the best bet would seem to be Balsam Gap which is 44 miles from there. Happy Snow hunting everyone! soco gap is a much better spot. It's not too far from balsam gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 soco gap is a much better spot. It's not too far from balsam gap. great - thanks! ill check out soco gap. hoping the snow makes it down to sapphire/lake toxaway so I can watch snow and football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Any opinions on Greenbrier near Gatlinburg? Might end up hiking around Porters Trail Saturday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Porters Creek may be too low in elevation. I'd go up Ramsey Cascades or Brushy Mountain until you hit any real snow I think I'm sticking to Mt Leconte because finding a warm shelter is going to be impossible otherwise and I still have good odds of seeing a foot. The latest models are giving Knoxville a little snow in the morning too so that will be a nice drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Yikes!, some pretty heady wording in GSP's afternoon afd. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...DDHHMMWRKSHTAS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE REMAINS CONSISTENT INMOVING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW RAPIDLY SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTOTHE CAROLINAS ON SAT. THIS LOW IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5 SD`SBELOW NORMAL. SO WE DO NOT SEE THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM VERY OFTEN.THUS...WE WILL BE ONGUARD IN REGARD TO THE UNEXPECTED. WITH THEVERY GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGHTO GO AHEAD A UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE NC MOUNTAINSTO A WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...EXCEPT FORBUNCOMBE...NORTHERN JACKSON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.THE VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL INDUCECYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE DAY ON SAT... WITH ADEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL VA/NC EXTENDING AS FAR WESTAS THE I-77 CORRIDOR ON SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSSTHE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE AND GENERALLY 0TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG ALONG WITH THERAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BYMIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUTNAINS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXSPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE I-85 CORRIDORTOWARD SR ON SAT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TOPRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO SAT EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTHE TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 4-8 INCHES WITHPOSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES.OTHER MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO UP TO3 INCHES.ON SATURDAY THE BOMBING LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERATE STRONGLLVL WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW. OUR WIND GUSTALGORITHM HITS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ON THEORDER OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH WOULD BE BELOW HIGH WIND WATCHCRITERIA. PRECIP ENDS FOR THE MOST PART BY SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FORSOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NC MOUTNAINS ADJACENT TO TN.CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BUT ATMOSPHERE MAY STAYMIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS OUTSIDE THEMOUNTAINS...SO NO FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. TEMPS STAY WELL BELOW CLIMOFOR SUN EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 GSP drops a warning over 24 hours in advance. I'll take it. Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC343 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINAMOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSSTHE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILLACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP ACROSS THEHIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING. ASTHE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY... STRONGNORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERSTHROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.NCZ033-048>052-310345-/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0004.141101T0000Z-141102T0000Z//O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0007.141101T0000Z-141102T0000Z/AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA343 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ALONG THETENNESSEE BORDER...AND NORTHERN JACKSON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL.* TIMING...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITHSNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ONSATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ASMUCH AS 10 INCHES ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING PEAKS.* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TREE ANDPOWER LINE DAMAGE. ROAD SURFACES MAY SEE SLIGHTLY LESS SNOWACCUMULATION...BUT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY REMAINSNOW COVERED AND ICY.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Well everything seems to be lining up very well for this first snow of the season. Wow and what a first snow it looks to be. I think there will be widespread 6-12 inches for many of the favorable locales. I think most of the places mentioned are good spot except Gatlinburg. I would really stay away from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Both the GFS and the NAM look very good as soon as the front comes through you can see the orographic enhancement of the mountains along the TN/NC boarder which just dumps the snow along the spine. This really could end up a big event for a large portion of the mountains. Very excited about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 New plumes for KAVL up to over 2"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 New plumes for KAVL up to over 2"! I was just about to post this! A pretty sizable jump from the 15z. The average is just under 2.5" and two are over 6". This is shaping up to be a nice event for Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 2.5 for franklin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hey guys I just did the plumes for Orangeburg and I could get in on some action... But I wish I was in Gatlinburg for this storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hey guys I just did the plumes for Orangeburg and I could get in on some action... But I wish I was in Gatlinburg for this storm.... image.jpg I think you are reaching man. That is the type support we get in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hey guys I just did the plumes for Orangeburg and I could get in on some action... But I wish I was in Gatlinburg for this storm.... You have a mean snowfall amount of less than 0.01 inch of snowfall on that chart. And, only two members give you anything at all, with the highest at 0.07 inch. You're totally setting yourself up to get crushed with disappointment if you are hanging your hopes on snowfall with this system. If you're looking for something to support the chances of snowfall in O-burg, the SREF is not your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Any ideas on what kind of ratios we'll be looking at for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Any ideas on what kind of ratios we'll be looking at for this event? Probably looking at fairly standard ratios for the AVL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Based on the recent model runs I wouldn't be surprised if advisory products were expanded at tonight's disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Based on the recent model runs I wouldn't be surprised if advisory products were expanded at tonight's disco. Me either, and for areas west of the mountains as well. I should still be able to drive from Knoxville to Gatlinburg, but I may have to do the Interstate to Sevierville route instead of my normal one. Who knows if the back roads will be slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Just a brief update from GSP before the longer disco later:"AS OF 130 AM...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS.TEMP/RH TRENDS LOOK GOOD. MIN TEMPS ALSO ON TRACK. NO CHANGES FORTHE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THEN THINGS START TO GETINTERESTING..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 The overnight and this morning model runs are still very encouraging. The Nam this morning just hammers us tonight into tomorrow morning. This event keeps looking more and more impressive as we near. The point and click forecasts are up to 90 percent through tonight and tomorrow and even though it does not look great on radar just wait until later today. Take care today everyone and be dreamen of snowflakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 ECMWF was perfect 50/50 for any snow in KAVL with majority of members being above 2". Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 NWS Morristown Graphic does the talking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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