SnoJoe Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 A little glazey this morning. They closed schools so I guess there's a little ice on the roads. I'm at 29.9 with some mist falling. Tree tops are pretty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 A little glazey this morning. They closed schools so I guess there's a little ice on the roads. I'm at 29.9 with some mist falling. Tree tops are pretty though.nice Joe. We were at freezing but no moisture. I could do without the ice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 As mentioned on previous page, at least for us mountain folks, we got several upcoming chances for a minor snow events in WNC. First, both 12z ECMWF and 12z 4km NAM are picking up on some frontal moisture turning into snow tomorrow night. Thanks to impressive 500mb vort passage, along with cold front entering the area, some of this moisture could give valley areas some dusting. However, I'm keeping my eye on this Sunday's potential NWFS event. 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS both pretty much gave high elevation areas couple of inches with a shot at an inch for valley towns. It's worth noting 12z GFS doesn't see anything tomorrow night, so GFS snow map below is almost 100% from Sunday's event. Btw, I'm a big fan of this new resolution versus old GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Thanks wxblue. The euro looked primed and wow the next ten days look great for potential. Also noticed that the euro sharpens the trough a lot for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Thanks wxblue. The euro looked primed and wow the next ten days look great for potential. Also noticed that the euro sharpens the trough a lot for tomorrow. All of this is starting to look like 2014 winter all over again. I'm very optimistic for this pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Lots of snow for wnc showing up on the ensembles, and the euro control went nuts. In fact the euro and it's ensembles have about 4-5 snow chances over the next 14 days. Two of them big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Lots of snow for wnc showing up on the ensembles, and the euro control went nuts. In fact the euro and it's ensembles have about 4-5 snow chances over the next 14 days. Two of them big storms.Franklin that is exactly what we need to break out of this snow drought. The euro just looked darn near perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Franklin that is exactly what we need to break out of this snow drought. The euro just looked darn near perfect.tell me about it, the euro control had 20"+ totals from about Asheville and all of southwest nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 tell me about it, the euro control had 20"+ totals from about Asheville and all of southwest nc.I would take that in a heartbeat for the next two weeks. It really looks like everything is coming together here in the shirt term. The euro control took a huge step today even with ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 tell me about it, the euro control had 20"+ totals from about Asheville and all of southwest nc. I would take that in a heartbeat for the next two weeks. It really looks like everything is coming together here in the shirt term. The euro control took a huge step today even with ensemble support. I must be missing something because I don't see anything like that on Weatherbell. Granted, it's only up to 240 hours but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 I must be missing something because I don't see anything like that on Weatherbell. Granted, it's only up to 240 hours but...Franklin just posted it in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yep things flipped really quick, the models tried to show a chance at snow for WNC tomorrow night over this past weekend but lost it as the week progressed. Sometimes these turn into decent event, we shall see. Long range looks awesome on the 18z GFS and 12z Euro ensemble, but I am hesitant because the Euro ensemble has been missing lately. All and all just glad we have something to track, but I am resistant of buying into anything just yet because the models have been pretty inconsistent as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 6z NAM 4km looks good for this afternoon in the higher mountains. Looks like surface temps will be the battle in the lower elevations but 850mb temps look to be -2c at the airport during the bulk of the precip with surface temps around 37 degrees. I will be interesting to see if this precip falls as snow or just a wet rain. I will be up in Maggie Valley all day, so I am hoping to see a few flakes before I head home. Should be a fun little event that kind of snuck up on us as the models begin to bring back the look they showed over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 6z NAM 4km looks good for this afternoon in the higher mountains. Looks like surface temps will be the battle in the lower elevations but 850mb temps look to be -2c at the airport during the bulk of the precip with surface temps around 37 degrees. I will be interesting to see if this precip falls as snow or just a wet rain. I will be up in Maggie Valley all day, so I am hoping to see a few flakes before I head home. Should be a fun little event that kind of snuck up on us as the models begin to bring back the look they showed over the weekend.if you are gonna be in Maggie take 19 up to soco gap, it will be all snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 6z NAM 4km looks good for this afternoon in the higher mountains. Looks like surface temps will be the battle in the lower elevations but 850mb temps look to be -2c at the airport during the bulk of the precip with surface temps around 37 degrees. I will be interesting to see if this precip falls as snow or just a wet rain. I will be up in Maggie Valley all day, so I am hoping to see a few flakes before I head home. Should be a fun little event that kind of snuck up on us as the models begin to bring back the look they showed over the weekend.Nice man you are my neck of the woods a bit. Yeah go up soco mountain to the parkway up there or go up to the ski area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Good idea Franklin & Met, I think I will try and head up to Soco after I get off work. Got a couple of gopro's with me so maybe I can catch us some good flakage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 HRRR and RAP both got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Flurries in Maggie right now with snow showers whiting out the tops of the surrounding mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Nada here but clouds. System is falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Snowing in fines creek and on balsam mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Light snow here. Already a good dusting. Temp didn't get above freezing today so that helped. Currently 28.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Got some flurries on campus of UNCA, although not very numerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Looks like some possible NWFS tomorrow morning for the high mountains. Don't think it will be too much and seems to be a more northern flow. Nonetheless, two chances at flakes in a week is a record for this winter. Models still suppressing the threat for next weekend but who knows at this point. I am waiting until Tuesday/Wednesday to judge, by that time we should have a better picture of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Looks like some possible NWFS tomorrow morning for the high mountains. Don't think it will be too much and seems to be a more northern flow. Nonetheless, two chances at flakes in a week is a record for this winter. Models still suppressing the threat for next weekend but who knows at this point. I am waiting until Tuesday/Wednesday to judge, by that time we should have a better picture of the situation.Yeah models have been flat out horrible with storms this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm starting to think we may be in for fun and games this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm starting to think we may be in for fun and games this weekend Agreed Marion. This could really begin to trend our way in the next 3 days. Not buying in quite just yet, but this could be our most legit threat so far this winter (besides halloween). I am looking forward to the euro ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes very cautiously optimistic about things going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm starting to think we may be in for fun and games this weekend I agree, this thing has reminded me a lot of the Dec 2010 series of events. Suppressed to south Florida with a gradual trend NW and then a phase 2-3 days out. Optimistic here in Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 32/50 12z euro ensemble members have the 23rd storm (4 big dogs) and 31/50 see some type of frozen accumulation around the 26th-27th for Asheville. Would really like to see qpf ticking up on the operationals, but this is no cad event so we should be in the best spot to see flakes other then N NC when compared to the rest of the board. If this were to phase I think wnc gets hammered with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ward I really like the system from around the 26th. It comes rolling down out of the north and really taps the moisture especially for WNC. The storm before that looks iffy at best right know but we have a week to iron out the details. We are sitting the best with getting snow or rain though. To me you are going to be hard pressed to get snow away from the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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