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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains


Met1985

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If you guys can get this insane Christmas low more east, like 18z GFS is suggesting, then the 540 line will get far enough east to cover all WNC in snow on Christmas. The key is the location of that low in Upper Plains: if that low get too close, it will likely cause "superlow" to cut up earlier like 18z GFS-para is suggesting. If that low is far enough north, it'll delay the cut to north and give y'all some serious pounding. Of course, models are all over the places, but it look like next several days will be exciting for y'all :)

 

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NWS GSP has something frozen in the grids every day for 6 days starting Friday:

NCZ033-180900-

AVERY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...

CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN

945 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS

10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AFTER

MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...SNOW WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE

MORNING...THEN RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW

ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN

IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS

AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LOWS

AROUND 30.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE

MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW

ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY

OR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN

THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BREEZY

WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

$$

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GSP still thinking we get some frozen precip going through tonight and into tomorrow morning. Would be very light though.

RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
559 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...AND
PERHAPS SOME SLEET. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

 

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Woohoo !!!!

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014


AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...
BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...
LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE
339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND PATCHES OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT
IN SLIPPERY SPOTS ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND SECONDARY ROADS.

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Woohoo !!!!

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-

BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...

CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...

BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...

LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE

339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP

ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE

TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF FREEZING

TEMPERATURES AND PATCHES OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT

IN SLIPPERY SPOTS ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND SECONDARY ROADS.

 

 

Woohoo !!

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS EVENING

INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY CAUSING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE

ON ROAD SURFACES.

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It's closed over the balsamS like it always is.

 

Oh yea; NPS had it closed at Asheville Folk Art Center; they opened it to Ox Creek.  I suspect the NPS gets the complaints if they keep it closed from the Folk Art Center to Ox Creek with nothing frozen around.

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Woohoo !!!!

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-

BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...

CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...

BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...

LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE

339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP

ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE

TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF FREEZING

TEMPERATURES AND PATCHES OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT

IN SLIPPERY SPOTS ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND SECONDARY ROADS.

 

 

Woohoo !!

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS EVENING

INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY CAUSING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE

ON ROAD SURFACES.

 

 

Woohoo !!

 

 

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF

NORTH CAROLINAS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE

NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE

EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-40

OVERNIGHT. THESE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST

LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE...AND ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET.

THIS COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN FREEZING ON CONTACT WITH

SURFACES. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND PRIMARILY

CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD

DEVELOP ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

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Woohoo !!

 

 

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF

NORTH CAROLINAS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE

NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE

EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-40

OVERNIGHT. THESE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST

LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE...AND ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET.

THIS COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN FREEZING ON CONTACT WITH

SURFACES. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND PRIMARILY

CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD

DEVELOP ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

Lol enjoy the freezing drizzle bud!

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(Continued...)

GFS Day 14.png

I may end up totally wrong on this and miss what’s going to happen (and will gladly eat crow if necessary) but the models have been hinting strongly at this for about 4 days and now we’re getting into a close enough range to where my confidence is increasing to a point that it was time to get on-board with it!

About time to get a fork for some crow eating. Nice write up but not quite what we ended up with.

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We had some snow here in Haywood this morning. Wad nice to see in some of the high peaks. Oh and Marietta the pattern is going to change. We are seeing sins of it know we just have to be patient. I like my chances at snow better than yours though.

Yeah pretty much everyone in the SE forum has a better chance at snow in their backyard over mine. You guys have much more time than I do. A sustained NW flow event or two and you guys would bank.

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Record warmth on the 27th

Stats courtesy of raysweather.com

Records Highs Prior to Saturday (Dec 27) (not all of which were broken):

Boone 65° (1949)

Beech Mtn 51° (2008)

Banner Elk 68° (1950)

Jefferson 64° (1984)

Spruce Pine 69° (1971)

Actual High temps Saturday, Dec 27, 2014 (* denotes record broken)…

Boone 68*

Beech Mtn 59*

Banner Elk 64

Jefferson 66*

Spruce Pine 63

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