WxBlue Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 If you guys can get this insane Christmas low more east, like 18z GFS is suggesting, then the 540 line will get far enough east to cover all WNC in snow on Christmas. The key is the location of that low in Upper Plains: if that low get too close, it will likely cause "superlow" to cut up earlier like 18z GFS-para is suggesting. If that low is far enough north, it'll delay the cut to north and give y'all some serious pounding. Of course, models are all over the places, but it look like next several days will be exciting for y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 NWS GSP has something frozen in the grids every day for 6 days starting Friday: NCZ033-180900- AVERY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN 945 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. .SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LOWS AROUND 30. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Will that moisture streaking across TN this morning will be interesting to see if any of it can make it over the mountains. Also GFS and Euro look different with the Christmas storm. Not as strong on the Euro at all but hey we are a week out so no big deal. Just wait and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well we have seen snow, sleet and freezing rain this morning. Current temp is 29 degrees with a light glaze on some surfaces. You can always look at the bright side in any pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Today's model runs look great. I see big potential here in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 GSP still thinking we get some frozen precip going through tonight and into tomorrow morning. Would be very light though. RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-559 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERNNORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THISEVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...ANDPERHAPS SOME SLEET. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Woohoo !!!! SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014...LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ANDCENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW WILL DEVELOPACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATETONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF FREEZINGTEMPERATURES AND PATCHES OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY RESULTIN SLIPPERY SPOTS ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND SECONDARY ROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yep tomorrow morning could be very interesting. We are down to 32 degrees and looking for the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I sure do pick the right times to visit the in-laws! Back in Black Mountain for the weekend. Hoping to see some flakes in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I expect to see a little mix here in the foothills in the morning, temp is 39 dewpoint 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Had a mixed bag this morning sitting at 32 degrees . The snow chances for Christmas are waning with each run it seems. There is a lot of back and forth with the models right know. Still way to early to go one way or the other. Hopefully we can set back and let it ride and come out on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Woohoo !!!! SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS... BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON... LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE 339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 ...LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT... PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PATCHES OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT IN SLIPPERY SPOTS ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND SECONDARY ROADS. Woohoo !! THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY CAUSING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON ROAD SURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Just returned from cycling on the Blue Ridge Parkway. NPS ranger was opening the gate to the Parkway as soon as got there. Seems like it may be quite awhile before it closes again. Winter of 09-10 this is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It's closed over the balsamS like it always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It's closed over the balsamS like it always is. Oh yea; NPS had it closed at Asheville Folk Art Center; they opened it to Ox Creek. I suspect the NPS gets the complaints if they keep it closed from the Folk Art Center to Ox Creek with nothing frozen around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Woohoo !!!! SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS... BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON... LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE 339 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 ...LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT... PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PATCHES OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT IN SLIPPERY SPOTS ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND SECONDARY ROADS. Woohoo !! THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY CAUSING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON ROAD SURFACES. Woohoo !! ...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINAS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT... CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-40 OVERNIGHT. THESE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE...AND ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET. THIS COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN FREEZING ON CONTACT WITH SURFACES. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Woohoo !! ...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINAS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT... CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-40 OVERNIGHT. THESE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE...AND ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET. THIS COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN FREEZING ON CONTACT WITH SURFACES. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. Lol enjoy the freezing drizzle bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 There is just enough fresh snow on Beech Mountain this morning to call it a White Christmas in the highest elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 There is just enough fresh snow on Beech Mountain this morning to call it a White Christmas in the highest elevations I took some family skiing at Sugar yesterday and needless to say conditions were deplorable for Christmas. Wasn't real crowded either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 (Continued...) GFS Day 14.png I may end up totally wrong on this and miss what’s going to happen (and will gladly eat crow if necessary) but the models have been hinting strongly at this for about 4 days and now we’re getting into a close enough range to where my confidence is increasing to a point that it was time to get on-board with it! About time to get a fork for some crow eating. Nice write up but not quite what we ended up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 We had some snow here in Haywood this morning. Wad nice to see in some of the high peaks. Oh and Marietta the pattern is going to change. We are seeing sins of it know we just have to be patient. I like my chances at snow better than yours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 We had some snow here in Haywood this morning. Wad nice to see in some of the high peaks. Oh and Marietta the pattern is going to change. We are seeing sins of it know we just have to be patient. I like my chances at snow better than yours though. Yeah pretty much everyone in the SE forum has a better chance at snow in their backyard over mine. You guys have much more time than I do. A sustained NW flow event or two and you guys would bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Is there any chance of snow New Year's eve or New Year's day? I will be in Sprucepine both of those days and was just wondering what you guys thought. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 White Christmas at Charles Bunion (approached from the NC side of the Smoky Mountains). It was about an inch of snow up there, slightly windy, and about 25F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Is there any chance of snow New Year's eve or New Year's day? I will be in Sprucepine both of those days and was just wondering what you guys thought. Thank youmoisture doesn't come in until Saturday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Record warmth on the 27th Stats courtesy of raysweather.com Records Highs Prior to Saturday (Dec 27) (not all of which were broken): Boone 65° (1949) Beech Mtn 51° (2008) Banner Elk 68° (1950) Jefferson 64° (1984) Spruce Pine 69° (1971) Actual High temps Saturday, Dec 27, 2014 (* denotes record broken)… Boone 68* Beech Mtn 59* Banner Elk 64 Jefferson 66* Spruce Pine 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 Impressive numbers there. Might as well go big if we are going to torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 We went big in November with the cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 We went big in November with the cold and snow. Yep we did. Had a great month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yep we did. Had a great month. This past November was the best one ever for winter weather in my life. I don't think I'll forget my snow chase on Halloween night up to peak of Roan Mountain for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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