Hvward Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 00z Op Euro was too warm but the 00z Ensemble improved to 30/50 members with accumulation at KAVL. 18 with 3"+ accumulation in Asheville. 33/50 for Boone. Still a long ways out on this one and it could turn into a more severe threat than snow but we will see. I really like the xmas time frame though. Would be nice to get a 1-2 punch around xmas. I don't remember that happening in the recent future here in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 00z Op Euro was too warm but the 00z Ensemble improved to 30/50 members with accumulation at KAVL. 18 with 3"+ accumulation in Asheville. 33/50 for Boone. Still a long ways out on this one and it could turn into a more severe threat than snow but we will see. I really like the xmas time frame though. Would me nice to get a 1-2 punch around xmas. I don't remember that happening in the recent future here in WNC. Yeah the pattern is going to be headed in the right direction at least. Don S had a great post yesterday about the upcoming pattern change and step down process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 36/50 Euro Ensemble members have accumulation for Asheville next weekend. 23 of them have 3"+ but the OP gave us around an inch. Interesting that the Euro OP wavers every run but the ensemble continue to tick upwards. Still 7 days out and anything could still happen, but we have the euro ensemble on our side and I would rather have that over the GFS. 06z GFS has an odd low track, similar to an App cutter but then shows up over central NC so in a 3 hour span so I have a hard time believing that track. Looks like it is struggling with the solution somewhat. GFS solution would be a NWF event I would assume. Things still look good at the end of the Euro though for the Xmas time frame. Decent blocking moving into place with some pretty cold air to work with. I think we will see flakes at some point in time over the next couple of weeks, amounts are a crapshoot though atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 GSP has a eye on it, basically saying they will lean to the euro but the whole thing is to far out. Gonna be in Asheville next Sunday with a quick turn around (Monday). LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGENT WITH REGARDS TOTHE EVOLUTION...TRACK...AND OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FORTHE CENTRAL SOUTHERN APPS FOR LATE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THEWARMER/FASTER SOLUTION WHILE THE NEW 00Z ECMWF IS ONCE AGAIN THECOLDER/SLOW SOLUTION. LEANED TOWARDS HPCGUIDE WHICH WAS BASED ONTHE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. THUS POPS WILL INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCELEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTNS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COMPLEXTHURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAMPING UP TO CHANCE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.POPS WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ONLYSLIGHT CHANCE POPS FEATURED. DUE TO THE LOWER LATITUDE PLACEMENTWITH REGARDS TO THE H5/SFC LOW TRACKS ON THE ECMWF...SURFACE TEMPSON THURSDAY NIGHT COULD YIELD AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THEHIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS. LIKEWISE...AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS EARLYSATURDAY MORNING...COLD ADVECTION IS FCST LEADING TO FALLING SNOWLEVELS. THUS THE FCST ALSO FEATURES PERIODS OF FREEZING RAINCHANGING OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE TN LINE NEAR PERIODS END DESPITEOVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TOREMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 36/50 Euro Ensemble members have accumulation for Asheville next weekend. 23 of them have 3"+ but the OP gave us around an inch. Interesting that the Euro OP wavers every run but the ensemble continue to tick upwards. Still 7 days out and anything could still happen, but we have the euro ensemble on our side and I would rather have that over the GFS. 06z GFS has an odd low track, similar to an App cutter but then shows up over central NC so in a 3 hour span so I have a hard time believing that track. Looks like it is struggling with the solution somewhat. GFS solution would be a NWF event I would assume. Things still look good at the end of the Euro though for the Xmas time frame. Decent blocking moving into place with some pretty cold air to work with. I think we will see flakes at some point in time over the next couple of weeks, amounts are a crapshoot though atm. Yeah I agree with all the above Ward. I like the direction were we are headed. Still a lot a wavering with this wave/storm rolling across the country. This is to be expected especially concerning a large scale pattern change. This is very interesting setup. Also the system next week seems to be trending colder behind that system. Maybe some NWFS behind that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 GSP has a eye on it, basically saying they will lean to the euro but the whole thing is to far out. Gonna be in Asheville next Sunday with a quick turn around (Monday).. Nice Don! We miss your post in the mountain thread so far this year. Hope all is well down in Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Nice Don! We miss your post in the mountain thread so far this year. Hope all is well down in Florida! Miss hashing it out with you guys too! I will be around for anything that looks decent as I keep a eye on things. Some glorious days down here lately but some chilly ones to. Such a big temp contrast at the beach vs being inland. Current obs shows Crestview is several degrees colder than KAVL. Anyhow merry Christmas to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Miss hashing it out with you guys too! I will be around for anything that looks decent as I keep a eye on things. Some glorious days down here lately but some chilly ones to. Such a big temp contrast at the beach vs being inland. Current obs shows Crestview is several degrees colder than KAVL. Anyhow merry Christmas to all! Merry Christmas to you also Don! Take care and check in time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Miss hashing it out with you guys too! I will be around for anything that looks decent as I keep a eye on things. Some glorious days down here lately but some chilly ones to. Such a big temp contrast at the beach vs being inland. Current obs shows Crestview is several degrees colder than KAVL. Anyhow merry Christmas to all! Hey Don, Have witnessed the greatest deviation in temps with the airport in some time the last 2 days. Here in Candler and Weaverville yesterday morning had lows of 16 while airport was 28. Funny since 9pm that evening it was 21 already. Last night pretty much same thing as we had a low of 23 and Weaverville was 19. Airport only got down to 33. We usually run 5-6 on a normal evening cooler but this is the largest deviations with clear nights in a few years. We had no wind to speak of but looks like the wind was howling all night the last 2 nights at airport. Oh well interesting obs and hope your have a Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Good to see you stop by Don! Yeah I agree with all the above Ward. I like the direction were we are headed. Still a lot a wavering with this wave/storm rolling across the country. This is to be expected especially concerning a large scale pattern change. This is very interesting setup. Also the system next week seems to be trending colder behind that system. Maybe some NWFS behind that also. I agree. 12z GFS & CMC were both all over the place but seemed to all trend a bit colder. Precip was lacking but at 7 days out that is to be expected. Love the fact we have something legit to track now with the upper atmosphere setting up very favorable. Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Should be some weenie members in the EPS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Should be some weenie members in the EPS tonight. Agree. That run was incredible for you guys in WNC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Should be some weenie members in the EPS tonight. I agree just looking at the 12z Euro this is very interesting for us. I do not buy it though. Just looking at the trends it looks good though. Waiting for the middle of next week to see how this thing pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Thoughts on today's Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Jacob still to early really to nail something down. This is a new solution on the euro and I am not going to say one way or the other. Was a good run for the mountains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Some interesting features on the Euro overnight. Still has a chance for some snow over the weekend and also maybe a chance of snow Thursday sometime along the boarder counties. GSP seems bullish on some kind of wintery weather over the weekend. One thing is for sure is we will be below normal for a good part of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 I also like the evolution of the pattern right around Christmas! I like our chances right know for something special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks like our chances for snow this weekend are beginning to tail off. Who knows what the last 6-7 days of December will have in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 KGSP goes with warmer profiles for this weekend yielding freezing rain or rain in Avery...likely a cold rain only AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY SAT. . IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm thinking of making a trip up to Zionville for the weekend in hopes of seeing some snow. I'll be at about 3500 ft. I know the models have come in warmer today making the forecast less certain, but would appreciate any thoughts that you guys have. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Good evening to all my mountain peeps...I just posted some thoughts on the evolution of the next 2 weeks on my personal Facebook page and would like to share them with you guys..._______________________________________________________ the signs are there and the cards are about to make their way onto the table to force another major pattern change that will throw us into the core of winter…We are going to have 2 potent storm systems in the southern stream that will affect the region between now and Christmas. The first storm is going to slide across the Gulf Coast Region this weekend and will provide a cold, cold rain for the majority of the area. It’s going to be a close call, infact so close that any small model error in the temperatures aloft could turn a cold, miserable rain into something a bit more wintry in nature.At this time, I’m not real gung-ho about winter weather but rest assured, if there are any changes, I’ll pass it along.Our second storm will occur early next week, looking like Tuesday (at this time). The air mass initially looks to be about the same but there will be a slightly better connection to cold air in the northern latitudes that could make things interesting if the timing of the southern stream were to be altered…For all my weather peeps, I wouldn’t fret if we did miss out on these two storms because it will be these features that will be the trigger to shift the pattern.There seems to be a growing consensus on the computer models of a possible blocking event in Eastern Canada/Southern Greenland which could lock in the cold air…then as that occurs, a major ridge is going to poke itself up into Alaska which could help trigger another possible cross-polar flow event as we reach the New Year!The maps included show the evolution of how this will break down…to me Day 7 (next Tuesday) is one that could sneak up on us…but the moral of the story is that the next 1-2 weeks is going to set the stage for what I think is going to be a lot of fun and games shortly thereafter… (Continued on next post...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 (Continued...) I may end up totally wrong on this and miss what’s going to happen (and will gladly eat crow if necessary) but the models have been hinting strongly at this for about 4 days and now we’re getting into a close enough range to where my confidence is increasing to a point that it was time to get on-board with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm thinking of making a trip up to Zionville for the weekend in hopes of seeing some snow. I'll be at about 3500 ft. I know the models have come in warmer today making the forecast less certain, but would appreciate any thoughts that you guys have. TIA.Come back in about 2 days and see what the models are showing, Marion did a good job of outlining this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Nicely done Marion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Marion another great post! Also could you post your facebook page link please. Yes the models do look very favorable right around Christmas. If we have to sacrifice a few cold rain storms for that period then so be it. I really like were we are headed and I agree with your analysis on the evolution of the pattern. It really looks like we are going to be headed into a great pattern around here very soon. Thank you and drop by anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Marion another great post! Also could you post your facebook page link please. No problem...I just updated my signature to include all the social media handles... Feel free to check out the McDowell Weather page, our team will keep it updated when the big one arrives along with the stuff I post on my personal page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 No problem...I just updated my signature to include all the social media handles... Feel free to check out the McDowell Weather page, our team will keep it updated when the big one arrives along with the stuff I post on my personal page. Thanks Marion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Temp - 30.1 Light snizzle Wind - 9/g13 Light glaze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Temp - 30.1 Light snizzle Wind - 9/g13 Light glaze Nice Joe. We are down to 29 degrees but just could nor get any moisture this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Raysweather.com updated comments for White Christmas chances next week: http://www.averyweather.com/Forecast/Beech+Mountain Heading into Christmas, things get more exciting. A little White for Christmas is a possibility. A potent low moves from the Texas Panhandle Monday into the Southeast Tuesday. Ahead of the system, it will be slightly warming, meaning rain for us Tuesday (mostly late day and at night) into Wednesday. Much colder air whips in from the northwest Wednesday changing rain to snow showers. Santa's ride looks bumpy (windy) and cold with snow showers. Christmas Day will be cold with a snow showers or flurries possible. (Hopefully at least a dust up, several inches likely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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