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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

HAHAHA just laughed out loud three times Joe.  Glad winter is back, hope you are making a trip to Billagio's and the alphabet store for this one.  Roan mountain would be the best bet for this storm.  I wouldn't bother with the gorge or anything near Gatlinburg.  Will be tourist city and no fun for snow chasers.  Thanks for the laugh.

 

I'm 53 and I get just as exited as I did when I was a kid when it comes to snow. The cabinet is stocked and can't wait for a football, fire, and snow weekend. Bliss. 

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

HAHAHA just laughed out loud three times Joe.  Glad winter is back, hope you are making a trip to Billagio's and the alphabet store for this one.  Roan mountain would be the best bet for this storm.  I wouldn't bother with the gorge or anything near Gatlinburg.  Will be tourist city and no fun for snow chasers.  Thanks for the laugh.

 Exactly. Unless you plan on getting out of your car and hiking up I would avoid Gatlinburg. Unfortunately to get to Mt. Leconte the best way minus 441 I have to get to Cherokee Orchard Rd. in Gatlinburg. It'll be worth it to see some snow, though.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Headed to my sister-in-law's house at Aho Gap late Friday night, right on the parkway near Boone.  I think it is around 3,200'.  Plan to get up early Saturday, fix a cup of coffee, and then go for a drive.

TW

 Actually it is 4,000'. Small world. Aho is my wife's family home place.  Her father grew up there.  Still have a lot of family there.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
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Posted

Roan Mtn. I live near by. Get up Sat. morning at 4 AM. Take 26 N to the 19E Burnsville exit. In Burnsville take 197N to Red Hill. Take a right on 226 S to Bakersville. Stop at Helen's and get a sausage biscuit. Then left on 261N to Roan Mtn. Hike the the blue trail from the parking lot. Enjoy the hammer time that you'll experience. Return home, stopping in Weaverville for some lasagna at the Twisted Laurel. Post a thank you to Snojoe for recommending an epic trip. 

Lol awesome Joe! Roan mountains is epic for NWFS. Mike posted a nice write up in at the beginning of the summer thread about studies being done on the mountains looking at upslope snow specifically. Would be a great choice as Joe pointed out WXblue.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

WWUS41 KRNK 300810

WSWRNK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

410 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND THE

HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT

LAKES ON FRIDAY...CROSSING THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY

NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL

BRING THE SEASON'S FIRST SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY

HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND

FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA IN THE VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS. STRONG

WINDS WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW TO STICK TO

ELEVATED SURFACES...AND POSSIBLY BRING DOWN TREES AND CAUSE POWER

OUTAGES.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-015-301615-

/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0005.141101T0000Z-141102T0000Z/

ASHE-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-GRAYSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE...TAZEWELL...

MARION...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY

410 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING

THROUGH 8 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS

ABOVE 3000 FEET.

* TIMING...FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...

WILL BLOW DOWN SOME TREES AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ROADS WILL

BECOME SLICK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE

POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE

LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

WWUS42 KGSP 300823

WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

423 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...HEAVY SNOW MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE

SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL

ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP ACROSS THE

HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING. AS

THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...STRONG

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWER

THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-301930-

/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0004.141101T0000Z-141102T0000Z/

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-

NORTHERN JACKSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...

CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...

BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...

LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...SYLVA

423 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING

THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE

BORDER...AND NORTHERN JACKSON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL.

* TIMING...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING...STARTING

OUT AS RAIN OR A MIX...THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS

SNOW LEVELS DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON

SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE

VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 3500 FT ARE LIKELY. A FEW

RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TREE AND

POWER LINE DAMAGE. ROAD SURFACES MAY SEE SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW

ACCUMULATION...BUT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY REMAIN

SNOW COVERED AND ICY.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S TO

BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SNOW LEVELS FALL.

THEN SOME REBOUND IN THE VALLEYS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S...WHILE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW

FREEZING. ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL THEN FALL BELOW FREEZING

SATURDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBLITY CAN BE EXPECTED

AT TIMES WITHIN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

ARK

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

Morristown just issued a winter storm watch for the border of TN/NC including the Smoky Mountains. The forecast is calling for up to 14" on the highest peaks, with a bulk of that falling overnight Friday into early Saturday morning - but still snow showers throughout the day on Saturday. A lot of the energy looks ripe for a quick but heavy NW Flow event.

 

I mean look at this:

 

http://i.imgur.com/zismhbF.gif

 

Mt. Leconte is going to get hammered. I'm anticipating mid 20s with a good 25-35mph wind or more at the top. I sure as heck better make sure my gear is wind proof today. It should be. I've been in worse, but not much worse.

 

I'm prepared, but with this kind of energy I'm really hoping I won't have to turn around. I think I should be able to at least make it to the trailhead though. Rainbow Falls can be somewhat sheltered from the wind except for about a mile 4000 feet up. Bullhead is going to be facing the wind for the first 2 miles down and winds could be approaching 55mph towards Saturday afternoon.

 

I can't promise anything but I'm going to ask around if I can borrow a small HD camera for the trip. If not I hope my iPhone will do.

 

EDIT: My iPhone can do 1080p, so that should cut the mustard.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

000
FLUS44 KMRX 300810
HWOMRX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
410 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-310815-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
410 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM PULLING WINTER-LIKE CHILL INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR THIS WEEKEND. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...FIRST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE
2500 FEET...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DECREASING MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY EVENING.

ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ELEVATION. AT THIS
TIME...BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITH
UP TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS BELOW 2500 FEET COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 4 INCHES. ROADS IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. PERSONS PLANNING ON
TRAVELING ON HIGHWAY 411 OVER THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS OR ROADWAYS
ACROSS HIGH KNOB...VIRGINIA NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW AND ICY ROADS. DOWNED TREES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
SNOW ACCUMULATING ON FOLIAGE STILL LEFT ON MANY TREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

 

-----------------------------------

 

000
FXUS64 KMRX 300754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RADIATION IN THE CLEAR SKY AND
CALM WIND ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE HAS
ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM. SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE NEAR WATER
BODIES AND WILL DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SO ADDED A
BIT OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY TODAY
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE APPROACH
AND WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ON THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
JUST BEFORE 12Z. STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF MOS NUMBERS FOR
MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE MAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
HAVE AN IMPACT FRIDAY EVENING. PEAK QG FORCING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCUR IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME...WHICH IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FAVORABLE NW FLOW
SNOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
UPSLOPE WINDS AROUND 25 KTS... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCAL TERRAIN. DECREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING LOWERING POPS AND QPF BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR TN MOUNTAIN ZONES AS
WELL AS WISE...RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VA WITH WORDING TO
SPECIFY ELEVATIONS 2500 FT AND HIGHER. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE
THAT LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES...WITH AROUND A
FOOT IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. THIS IS A BIT BELOW THE
NAM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL MELTING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY.

 

--------------------------------------

 

Mt. Leconte just might be the place to be. Mt. Sterling and Mt. Camerrer or even south to Cosby Knob or Mt. Guyot might be good places to chase, too, for those interested. But, seriously, DON'T HIKE IN THIS SORT OF WEATHER UNLESS YOU ARE EXPERIENCED IN IT AND KNOW HOW TO HANDLE IT OR DRESS FOR IT.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

Posted
Posted

Looking at the various model solutions-tricky forecast for the Balsam mountains.  Northern Balsams mountains..one foot? Southern Balsams 1"?  Central/Plott Balsams????   

 

After carefully watching NW Flow/NW Flow enhanced flow events over last couple of years-still don't have a magic formula for determining when these events penetrate beyond the TN border favored locations and when they don't.

 

However, deep moisture and strong forcing for at least part of the event along with stronger than normal winds suggests the carry over will be significant.  As such, will go with the 50% rule..expecting 50% of the maximum amount which will fall along the TN line which is set at 14"...so a maximum of 7" with a minimum  of 3" for this coming event at the 6100 feet level on the Plotts. It is no surprise that Northern Jackson county is under a Winter Storm Watch. (Note: In NW flow events, there is usually a quick drop in snow amounts on the leeward side of Soco Gap and then again at Balsam gap.)

 

Again for those that want to watch the event live so to speak..Beech Mountain is probably your best bet due to good access. Most of the other favored locations along the TN will simply be closed or very hard to access Saturday.

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

Looking at the various model solutions-tricky forecast for the Balsam mountains.  Northern Balsams mountains..one foot? Southern Balsams 1"?  Central/Plott Balsams????   

 

After carefully watching NW Flow/NW Flow enhanced flow events over last couple of years-still don't have a magic formula for determining when these events penetrate beyond the TN border favored locations and when they don't.

 

However, deep moisture and strong forcing for at least part of the event along with stronger than normal winds suggests the carry over will be significant.  As such, will go with the 50% rule..expecting 50% of the maximum amount which will fall along the TN line which is set at 14"...so a maximum of 7" with a minimum  of 3" for this coming event at the 6100 feet level on the Plotts. It is no surprise that Northern Jackson county is under a Winter Storm Watch. (Note: In NW flow events, there is usually a quick drop in snow amounts on the leeward side of Soco Gap and then again at Balsam gap.)

 

Again for those that want to watch the event live so to speak..Beech Mountain is probably your best bet due to good access. Most of the other favored locations along the TN will simply be closed or very hard to access Saturday.

 

 

This one will be a nice one to study.  I think a couple peaks end up with 12"+ also.  Plumes continue to increase and I think a slushy 1-3 inches is possible even down here in the valley.  Downtown tends to do pretty well with NWF and I would consider this NWF on steroids.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Morning fellas, just popped in to to let you know I'm rooting for all of you. As most of you NWFS vets know wind direction is gonna be key for amounts. Seems like a great start for what has the potential to be one of the better winters in WNC. I of course will be putting my 2 cents worth in the discuss. & riding your coat tails when the reports start coming in! Great disco for us nerds in the group from GSP posted below.

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE (EXCEPT THE CMC)...HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED
500 MB LOW...DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY...AND ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A SHARP/DEEP TROF OVER THE CWFA ON SATURDAY. THE ENERGY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACRS
CENTRAL VA/NC. A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE
AND GENERALLY 0 TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THE LLVL WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW...AS THE MID-UPR LOW SWINGS BY...WITH
STRONG CAA...SHUD RESULT IN PROBABLY WIND ADV LVL WINDS IN THE MTNS
(EVEN HIGHER AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS). BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACRS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS THE
LLVL SYSTEM DEEPENS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS...AND CONTINUED NLY CAA
FLOW PERSISTS. THIS EVENT IS ONLY 48-60 HOURS AWAY...AND YET
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS ON SENSIBLE WX. IF THE 00Z GFS
VERIFIES...IT/S 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOUT 5.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL (OR ABOUT A 50-YEAR RETURN INTERVAL). HOWEVER...ONE
THING SEEMS ALMOST A SLAM DUNK...AND THAT IS ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS A VERY GOOD NW FLOW SNOW SET UP SHUD OCCUR.

FRIDAY SHUD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MID AFTN IN THE NRN
MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACRS THE MUCH OF THE AREA...AS DEEP LYR RH WILL
ACCOMPANY VERY STRONG QG FORCING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH
PERHAPS A LULL IN SHWR ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE USUAL NW FLOW AREAS.
HIGHS WILL BE 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN DROP WITH
ONSET OF CAA...ESP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO MID 30S MTNS...AND UPR 30S TO LWR 40S PIEDMONT.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS.

SATURDAY...TAKING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHUD BE A
PERIOD OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN/SHWR ACTIVITY ACRS THE I-77
CORRIDOR...WHILE THE NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS CONTINUE ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS/POPS FOR THE DAY ARE LOW CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE BACK UP TO ABOUT
3500 FT...AS THE COMPACT MID LVL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. SOME
PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MAY SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIP SHUD REMAIN LIQUID...AS THE SFC LAYER IS JUST TOO WARM. EVEN
IF SOME SNOW FALLS OUTSIDE THE MTNS ON SATURDAY...ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AS SOIL TEMPS ARE RUNNING MID 50S TO
MID 60S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. CHARLOTTE HAS NOT HAD MEASURABLE SNOW
EARLIER THAN NOV 11TH GOING BACK TO 1878. I BLENDED IN THE STRAIGHT
GFS TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE MTNS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST IN THE
PIEDMONT

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

I agree that 3500' will probably be the cut off point for significant snow.

 

It is interesting that NWS Morristown is more aggressive than NWS Greenville Spartanburg for the event, somewhat partially due to the high peaks in the Smokies.

 

It will be interesting to see how this one pans out.

 

Myself, deciding where to go for the first cross country ski of the season....leaning towards Carvers Gap.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

 

Again for those that want to watch the event live so to speak..Beech Mountain is probably your best bet due to good access. Most of the other favored locations along the TN will simply be closed or very hard to access Saturday.

 

Does roads around Roan closes during snow storms? 

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Does roads around Roan closes during snow storms? 

 

TN 143 goes south up to the NC/Tn line at Carvers Gap and NC 261 comes up from the south to meet at the State Line.

 

TN DOT plows from one side and NC DOT plows up from the other side.   Sometimes one side is plowed and one side is not plowed.

 

Extreme caution is to be observed in this unpopulated area because you are up there above 6000' on your own with little if any cell signal whatsover.   As always, know what you are doing and travel up there in preparation that you could get stuck if don't have the proper 4wd raised vehicle.

 

It won't be this bad up there this weekend, but this picture from summittpost.org shows you what can occur up at Carvers Gaps.

 

4N0gCi0.jpg

 

 

http://www.summitpost.org/roan-mountain-snow/365778

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mclean02

mclean02

Posted
Posted

TN 143 goes south up to the NC/Tn line at Carvers Gap and NC 261 comes up from the south to meet at the State Line.

 

TN DOT plows from one side and NC DOT plows up from the other side.   Sometimes one side is plowed and one side is not plowed.

 

Extreme caution is to be observed in this unpopulated area because you are up there above 6000' on your own with little if any cell signal whatsover.   As always, know what you are doing and travel up there in preparation that you could get stuck if don't have the proper 4wd raised vehicle.

So traveling in a awd lancer evolution should be okay(with supplies of course) ? and coming from Greensboro when is the best time to leave and is Beech Mountain the best one for the most snow and easy access ?

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