wncsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 the only problem is its warm up to 5000ft. If you take the 12 Z GFS verbatim then yes, but if you think about dynamical cooling, 850's below 0, and a great storm track its certainly possible. Also if you look at past history of miller A's with fleeting cold air except above 850 you will notice that elevations above 3000 ft tend to do pretty well if the system is strong enough and takes the optimal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If you take the 12 Z GFS verbatim then yes, but if you think about dynamical cooling, 850's below 0, and a great storm track its certainly possible. Also if you look at past history of miller A's with fleeting cold air except above 850 you will notice that elevations above 3000 ft tend to do pretty well if the system is strong enough and takes the optimal track.yes that is true for my elevation as well, 2500' if the nam is correct then it's a good thump of snow. But that's a big if. It's also November too, so Climo usually wins out. We are still playing with house money though, it feels more like January 25th than Nov 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 yes that is true for my elevation as well, 2500' if the nam is correct then it's a good thump of snow. But that's a big if. It's also November too, so Climo usually wins out. We are still playing with house money though, it feels more like January 25th than Nov 25. I agree, it has been an active November, im really hoping for late December to start the real fun for all of us. I have very little chance of any wet snow here in McDowell at 1300 ft, but I may take a trip up to Yancey County if I have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_spitter Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yep...now we are relying on the NAM and the RGEM for mountain valley snow...it aint hapnin' now waiting for the upslope tomorrow night...thats our best chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well, GFS came in and it continues to look very warm for the mountains. Meanwhile, the 12Z NAM holds serve and is much colder at the surface (and aloft!) and suggests a good 6-hour window of snow in AVL. So it comes down to which sounding looks most realistic, taking into account known model biases. NAM at 12Z Wednesday, showing a classic SNOW sounding: GFS at 12Z Wednesday showing a deep warm layer near the surface (i.e., rain): Note their differences, especially at 850mb, which the GFS is a good 2 degrees warmer than the NAM. Both have a very similar look upstairs at 500mb, so I am having a hard time finding reasons why the NAM is so cold (or the GFS so warm). It is at such instances where a blend of the two models is most likely what any forecaster would do, since both NAM and GFS could be right solutions. So my final call for AVL is 0.7" of very slushy snow, no road or travel issues, and all melting in the afternoon. This should fall between 5am and 8am. This is based upon two things: 1) how mild it has been the last few days and 2) typically around here, once an event starts as rain, it is tremendously difficult to get it to switch over to snow in setups like this. This is an event that starts as rain - all models agree upon that. The NAM simply cools the column more due to stronger forcing (i.e., rates), whereas the GFS (and Euro, really) has much lighter precip and not as high total QPF. Even for higher elevations, GFS implies snow level is at or above 5000'. I will happily eat crow if my forecast crashes and burns (and the NAM verifies!). But thought I would share my reasoning. Cheers! Please continue to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Congratulations Asheville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Maybe its my phone but my poat are bein deleted I'm sorry if I've offened anyone I guess the place ain't what it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Please continue to post. Well, GFS came in and it continues to look very warm for the mountains. Meanwhile, the 12Z NAM holds serve and is much colder at the surface (and aloft!) and suggests a good 6-hour window of snow in AVL. So it comes down to which sounding looks most realistic, taking into account known model biases. NAM at 12Z Wednesday, showing a classic SNOW sounding: GFS at 12Z Wednesday showing a deep warm layer near the surface (i.e., rain): Note their differences, especially at 850mb, which the GFS is a good 2 degrees warmer than the NAM. Both have a very similar look upstairs at 500mb, so I am having a hard time finding reasons why the NAM is so cold (or the GFS so warm). It is at such instances where a blend of the two models is most likely what any forecaster would do, since both NAM and GFS could be right solutions. So my final call for AVL is 0.7" of very slushy snow, no road or travel issues, and all melting in the afternoon. This should fall between 5am and 8am. This is based upon two things: 1) how mild it has been the last few days and 2) typically around here, once an event starts as rain, it is tremendously difficult to get it to switch over to snow in setups like this. This is an event that starts as rain - all models agree upon that. The NAM simply cools the column more due to stronger forcing (i.e., rates), whereas the GFS (and Euro, really) has much lighter precip and not as high total QPF. Even for higher elevations, GFS implies snow level is at or above 5000'. I will happily eat crow if my forecast crashes and burns (and the NAM verifies!). But thought I would share my reasoning. Cheers! Yeah, good stuff. Thank you for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_spitter Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Maybe its my phone but my poat are bein deleted I'm sorry if I've offened anyone I guess the place ain't what it used to be. Yep...you've fell victim to the almighty jburns...not sure why though...the mtns are under a winter winter advisory except for Newland northward...no storm mode for Asheville now...GSP seemed to have this one nailed yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yep...you've fell victim to the almighty jburns...not sure why though...the mtns are under a winter winter advisory except for Newland northward...no storm mode for Asheville now...GSP seemed to have this one nailed yesterday I haven't touched any of his posts. You seem to have formed a pretty quick opinion for someone who just registered today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_spitter Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I haven't touched any of his posts. You seem to have formed a pretty quick opinion for someone who just registered today. my apologies Mr. Moderator...no Ive been an observer for some time now and decided to join to see the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 my apologies Mr. Moderator...no Ive been an observer for some time now and decided to join to see the maps welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Great post HT! Bravo on the analysis, any flakes are welcome. Gotta apologize to Marietta he was just speaking truth last night, props. I am hoping for the NAM but preparing myself for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Bastardi just said a cross between the NAM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GSP not backing down with the snow it seems. Latest discussion even mentions possible snow reaching the ground just east of the mtns in heavier precip bursts. They mention 4+ totals in eastern Yancey county which is where I will be tonight (3500 ft). Hope they are right, but I'm not seeing it. I would go with less than an inch there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nam is a paste bomb!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nam is a paste bomb!! Yep, Hope it's onto something? If so I should see some flakes east of the Mountains, here in N.Foothills!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 my apologies Mr. Moderator...no Ive been an observer for some time now and decided to join to see the maps Sorry for the interruption, but since this was brought up in here I would like to conclude it in the same thread. You have indeed been lurking since, 6 March 2014 - 12:08 PM. That was your last post as K4CF, your original, and still active account. Multiple accounts are to be banned under the forum rules. I have banned this account but left your original one alone. Lets have no more foolishness. I don't want to have to take out a bigger broom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Bastardi just said a cross between the NAM and Euro. That usually works well Sorry for the interruption, but since this was brought up in here I would like to conclude it in the same thread. You have indeed been lurking since, 6 March 2014 - 12:08 PM. That was your last post as K4CF, your original, and still active account. Multiple accounts are to be banned under the forum rules. I have banned this account but left your original one alone. Lets have no more foolishness. I don't want to have to take out a bigger broom. My broom is big enough for two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here is the current GSP thinking regarding snow totals. The typical Asheville snow shadow is in effect. Central Buncombe County is not the place to be for accumulating snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GSP not backing down with the snow it seems. Latest discussion even mentions possible snow reaching the ground just east of the mtns in heavier precip bursts. They mention 4+ totals in eastern Yancey county which is where I will be tonight (3500 ft). Hope they are right, but I'm not seeing it. I would go with less than an inch there. I agree. But GSP upgraded the advisory to a warning for Mitchell and Yancey. Seven mile might do OK. YANCEY-MITCHELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE 306 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...YANCEY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. * TIMING...RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. THE SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATING ON ROADS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks snojoe...close call with the temps...need heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just took a quick look at the models. I looked at the NAM and just wow that is what we want. Will it happen that way not sure but one thing I know is that these systems coming from the south are very tricky here in the mountains. I have seen then call for a couple of inches and we get a foot. Not saying that is going to happen just these systems coming from the gulf are very hard to predict in the mountains. The latest GFS looks ok for maybe some light accumulation. Looks warmer and not as juiced as the NAM which could be the solution we get. The little system coming in on Thanksgiving continues to look like a decent upslope event. Again the NAM is more aggressive than the GFS with precip but hey I am not complaining one bit. Seeing flakes fly in Thanksgiving would be awesome! Also HT great analysis as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Also temp down to 43 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Beech mountain is already coming in with 38.. the clouds are still having trouble filling in here which may allow for a little radiational cooling before they roll in tonight. Just got back from avery county picking up some Christmas trees to deliver to Hendersonville tomorrow, will be out 5th load this season! 2 to charlotte, 3 to Hendersonville/Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just took a quick look at the models. I looked at the NAM and just wow that is what we want. Will it happen that way not sure but one thing I know is that these systems coming from the south are very tricky here in the mountains. I have seen then call for a couple of inches and we get a foot. Not saying that is going to happen just these systems coming from the gulf are very hard to predict in the mountains. The latest GFS looks ok for maybe some light accumulation. Looks warmer and not as juiced as the NAM which could be the solution we get. The little system coming in on Thanksgiving continues to look like a decent upslope event. Again the NAM is more aggressive than the GFS with precip but hey I am not complaining one bit. Seeing flakes fly in Thanksgiving would be awesome! Also HT great analysis as always! Thanks! My pleasure to offer another perspective. It's into now cast time and the HRRR looks rainy...but not snowy. GFS swooping in for the kill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks! My pleasure to offer another perspective. It's into now cast time and the HRRR looks rainy...but not snowy. GFS swooping in for the kill? Lol could be but as you said it is time to temp watch and look out the window. Whatever it does it does. We are lucky to be even talking about snow for this time of the year especially around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 49 in my backyard with a ways to drop ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 49 in my backyard with a ways to drop ha. 42 steady degrees here right know. This will be interesting if we can get the rates that we need to really cool the upper columns. As HT said earlier the rain to snow is always hard to do. Should be interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just dropped into the 30's here at 39.6. Yancy county just closed school for tomorrow. I guess it's just wait and see from this point on. Radar doesn't look all that great but maybe that'll change in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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