Local Yokel Wx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Im liking what i see, particularly for the ski slopes as they have had a iffy start (not bad, but not great). The further SW one is in the mtns the harder it will be to get accumulating snow. Im not ready to put out a SnowCast map just yet, but by tomorrow morning i will post mine. Best of luck to all of the mtn folks as well as the foothill and piedmont fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Should be a decent 2-4 for most with 6 plus in the northern mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Should be a decent 2-4 for most with 6 plus in the northern mtns. why is GSP NWS not on board yet? Not even a HWO yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow at the 9z sref. Shade under 4 inches for franklin with many memembers over. Two with 8 inches. It has a mean of 3 for asheville with many members over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 why is GSP NWS not on board yet? Not even a HWO yet. Not surprisedly, they are cautious. Things could change in a heartbeat, but all signs are pointing to a moderate snow event in mountains above 2,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like GSP is talking about it in their overnight disco. PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSESWEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSESWILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILLPLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREAREMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THATEITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ONANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVORSNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE ISFAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCEBUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OURSERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BEADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLYIN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTYGOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACHTHE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIOVALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG ANDPROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENNBORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIESMAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTUREFINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THUAFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I wonder if Boone could end up having double digit snowfall total for the month of November. Standing at about 3.5" for the month right now. I can't remember the last time 10" or more inches fell in November. Looks to be an outside chance rounding out the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Anyone want to take a stab at the I77 corridor forecast for Wednesday AM? Best I can tell it will be a late starter and a transition over to snow into the afternoon. After todays ground temps and VDOT and WVDOT treat the roads, not really expecting any travel issues. Appreciate any thoughts to the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro Ensemble mean has the following liquid equivalent totals for the storm... Franklin: 0.5 Asheville: 0.7 Boone: 0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A quick look at the incoming 12Z NAM (11/24/2014), suggests that the best chances for snow in the mountains will be overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The sounding from AVL looks very promising for snow - so it's just a question of how much precip we can get into the cold air before sunrise. The latest NAM liquid equivalent suggests 0.30" by 12Z Wed, or 2-3" of very slushy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12Z Hi-Res NAM is very wet! Look at the .50qpf showing up around the foothills. This is only 3 hours as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12Z Hi-Res NAM is very wet! Look at the .50qpf showing up around the foothills. This is only 3 hours as well. I would definitely like to see some accumulations down here in the foothills. That map does look better for us in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Opening day at Appalachian Ski Mountain Saturday was opening day and conditions were well SAWEET. From SkiSoutheast.com: Jordan Nelson with Nelson Aerials provides superb drone footage from his ridiculously pimped out drone to show us things we have never seen before from an up and above the slopes perspective. Average base depth even after yesterday's heavy rains and stiff warm overnight winds is 28" to 58" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I remeber as a kid we lived up north of Weaverville in the 70,s and had a white thanksgiving. Seems like it snowed about 2 maybe 3 inches. Had the cousins up from south georgia, first time they had seen snow. Anyway rooting hard for you guys, espeacilly northern mtns, we will be heading up Friday morning to get the tree. Plan on bringing the sleds with me, knock on wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is around 0.7 liq equiv in central and northern mtns. Less in southern mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is around 0.7 liq equiv in central and northern mtns. Less in southern mtns.euro looked drier to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 euro looked drier to me. Looks like it was similar in central and southern mtns, but a bit drier in northern mtns....numbers were similar to Ens mean from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 euro looked drier to me. Definitely not drier - at least compared to the 00Z run. I see the 0.7" of liquid equivalent, which is nearly double that from both the NAM and the GFS output. Taken at face-value, it would be 5-7" of snow for AVL and surrounding areas, compared to the 2-3" from the NAM/GFS. Again, soundings support all snow through 12Z Wednesday before things warm up as the sytem departs. The storm is still 48 hours away, so I think with the 00Z suite we should be able to make a near final call snow projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like it was similar in central and southern mtns, but a bit drier in northern mtns....numbers were similar to Ens mean from last nightgood deal, looks like a consensus then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So I have some inlaws making the trip to Charlotte from Nashville on Wednesday. They'll be coming right over the mountains on I-40 late in the day Wednesday. Any guesses from people more familiar with that route? I'm guessing 5" or so of snow shouldn't be too big a deal, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The SREF continues to trend up. Up to a mean of 3.62 inches for AVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 From Ray's Weather for the central mtns... "There are still some details to work out, namely, how much cold air can work in as the precip arrives. But, here is our latest thinking as of this morning. Light rain develops late Tuesday evening (even in the highest elevations). A transition to snow is then expected Tuesday night above 4000’, then gradually transitioning down to lower elevations through Wednesday morning. Elevations below 3000’ (including the greater Asheville area) will be much more borderline, temp-wise, for a complete changeover to snow. It is possible that the heaviest of the precipitation will be gone before the transition can occur in those areas which would significantly limit any accumulation potential. This is the reason for the Snowman-O-Mometer only being at a Dusting for now. A small temperature change could make all the difference there. Overall, the best potential for accumulating snow with this system looks to be above 3000’ where light accumulations are possible. On the backside of the system, flurries and a few snow showers will redevelop Wednesday night with additional light accumulations possible in the favored upslope areas along the NC/TN border. Flurries gradually taper off Thanksgiving morning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 From Greenville AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BELOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELLINLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FARWEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARDVERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORTWITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUERIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACHADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NCMOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I have complete respect for gsp but I've lived in these mountains all my life you can't predit the weather around here unless ur out in it. I just think there bein a little to conservative for the mtns on one of the busyiest times of year. Anywere along the blue ridge above 2500 ft shud be under a winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Just looked at the 18z. Looks ok. Would like to see everything shift west a bit but hey it is only November. I also like the looks of a dcent upslope event taking place also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here is my first call map, might need to update it sometime tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks pretty good, Hvward: with elevation comes greater accumulation. BTW, your map-creating skills are far superior to some maps I've seen produced by others in previous years. Nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sref was a hair over 4 inches for franklin ,a couple weenie members and most clustered around 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sref was a hair over 4 inches for franklin ,a couple weenie members and most clustered around 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks pretty good, Hvward: with elevation comes greater accumulation. BTW, your map-creating skills are far superior to some maps I've seen produced by others in previous years. Nice work. Thanks calc! I appreciate that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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