WNC_Fort Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The Dec 18 2009 snowstorm was the first time I had ever seen a foot of snow in person. I mean if thats what y'all are promising me I am all in! (Sarcasm, I know that is not what you guys are saying) The thought of getting flakes around Thanksgiving is good enough for me, having a White Thanksgiving would be even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Robert just made a new post at WXSouth. "Significant Snow" for western NC and mountains, may surprise a few others. I would think as close to the event that we are with more and more models saying snow for the mtns. that th NWS GSP would have at least an HWO by now, especially with it being a major travel day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 I would think as close to the event that we are with more and more models saying snow for the mtns. that th NWS GSP would have at least an HWO by now, especially with it being a major travel day. If the models continue today into tomorrow then they will. This still could trend the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I would think as close to the event that we are with more and more models saying snow for the mtns. that th NWS GSP would have at least an HWO by now, especially with it being a major travel day. Their new discussion indicates they will NOT mention it yet due to the uncertainty in the scope of the snowfall. That is, they are thinking snow, just a few inches, above 4000', with rain elsewhere. This would also imply no snow accumulation for AVL either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 15z SREF looks improved.. GSP has a lot more to lose if this event fails then us on the weather board. Therefore they are going to wait until things are pretty certain considering how many people travel I-40 through the mountains on their way to a Thanksgiving destination. If they call for 4-6" and it doesn't happen, a lot of people will be mad about changing their driving schedule because of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 15Z SREF has outliers but mean is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Their new discussion indicates they will NOT mention it yet due to the uncertainty in the scope of the snowfall. That is, they are thinking snow, just a few inches, above 4000', with rain elsewhere. This would also imply no snow accumulation for AVL either. I totally respect NWS but I really really respect what Robert puts out. He is as good if not better than any Mets. I've ever seen. Just learning what Robert had to say a couple of hours ago I would say most of WNC get ready for snow. Robert is usually dead on once he makes a call. We'll see but if I were a betting man Robert is the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Meh I wouldn't worry about what GSP has to say right know. All this is right know is a big if with the way things are trending. No need to cause any kind of public panic over travel right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 15z SREF looks improved.. GSP has a lot more to lose if this event fails then us on the weather board. Therefore they are going to wait until things are pretty certain considering how many people travel I-40 through the mountains on their way to a Thanksgiving destination. If they call for 4-6" and it doesn't happen, a lot of people will be mad about changing their driving schedule because of them. I agree totally, I was thinking of a HWO mentioning the fact that there is a (possibility) of there being a winter storm on Wednesday. I guess later tonight if everything keeps moving toward this scenario they will put out a HWO then. Thanks guys for all your info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I agree totally, I was thinking of a HWO mentioning the fact that there is a (possibility) of there being a winter storm on Wednesday. I guess later tonight if everything keeps moving toward this scenario they will put out a HWO then. Thanks guys for all your info. Gonna need the NAM to get on board before they really go "all-in." Frankly, as much as we love snow, the NAM showing nothing here is still a possibility. Plus it's an American model run from NOAA/NCEP, a partner with NOAA/NWS so gotta do the politically correct thing and give some credit to all model solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Gonna need the NAM to get on board before they really go "all-in." Frankly, as much as we love snow, the NAM showing nothing here is still a possibility. Plus it's an American model run from NOAA/NCEP, a partner with NOAA/NWS so gotta do the politically correct thing and give some credit to all model solutions.I agree that the nam solution is a possibility but it's a Terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Gonna need the NAM to get on board before they really go "all-in." Frankly, as much as we love snow, the NAM showing nothing here is still a possibility. Plus it's an American model run from NOAA/NCEP, a partner with NOAA/NWS so gotta do the politically correct thing and give some credit to all model solutions. Ok I see what you mean now. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z NAM at hr 48/51 is around 50 miles west of the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z NAM at hr 48/51 is around 50 miles west of the 12z run It wants to...as it should...since SREF is its own ensemble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z NAM at hr 48/51 is around 50 miles west of the 12z run Should also note it is not far enough west yet to affect the mountains. All precip is east of I-77 on the 18Z run. But it's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Should also note it is not far enough west yet to affect the mountains. All precip is east of I-77 on the 18Z run. But it's a step in the right direction. Agreed but it is still an outlier and is at a range where it isn't very effective. I would say the trend is our friend with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I've planned to come back home to ENC Monday, but this event is making me want to stay until my dorm closes Wednesday and chase this event. My parents won't like this plan since they miss me so look like I'm missing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z Euro ensemble is pure eye candy for KAVL. 3 +11" events, 48/50 with accumulation, and 32 +4" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z Euro ensemble is pure eye candy for KAVL. 3 +11" events, 48/50 with accumulation, and 32 +4" events. R we so sure its eye candy? Especially for say Hendersonville, Asheville north and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 R we so sure its eye candy? Especially for say Hendersonville, Asheville north and west? it is from the airport, take it for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 AMWX GFS 18z snowfall maps give most of Buncombe Co. 5-6". Hard to ignore that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 AMWX GFS 18z snowfall maps give most of Buncombe Co. 5-6". Hard to ignore that. Cool. Still would like to see it a hair further west for best overlap of jet dynamics forcing and front-end frontogenetical forcing. Still would be happy with 5-6". But could always use more. ️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah I like the look of the 18z GFS for us. looks like snow from the main system then upslope behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yup snow on the ground then snow in the air on thanksgiving. Can't ever recall that in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Robert still thinks after the latest models major snowstorm n. ga upstate points north wnc western central va and possibly central nc. all the upper level features are in place plus dynamic cooling plus it looks like there will be phasing that will create a major winter storm in the mtns of nc and maybe upper sc and points north and northeast. just posted from Robert on facebook 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yup snow on the ground then snow in the air on thanksgiving. Can't ever recall that in my life. Last year we had snow the day before Thanksgiving. 4 inches to be exact but yeah that would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 00Z NAM not gonna cut it for western Carolina's. System is too far east and too fast-moving to bring anyone along the entire spine of the Apps much more than a half inch...all the way up to DC. Swing and a miss, though a shift compared to its own other runs. Cue the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 00Z NAM not gonna cut it for western Carolina's. System is too far east and too fast-moving to bring anyone along the entire spine of the Apps much more than a half inch...all the way up to DC. Swing and a miss, though a shift compared to its own other runs. Cue the GFS. NAM finally starting to cave to Euro/GFS. Which one would figure would happen anyway given how bad the NAM is 48+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro ensemble averaging 4" for KAVL. GFS showing a nice strip of 3" through most of Buncombe Co. and the NAM thinks it will be too warm, Canadian drops around 3-4" & RGEM at the end of the run begins accumulating. This should be an interesting event but I think we see accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think places over 2000 feet will do well but here in marion its guna be close the suspence ia killing me were right on the edge I hppe were not on the outside lookin in but habe enjoyed tracking an continue to learn thanks guys for all the help I've learned a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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