Met1985 Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah 00z euro looks very favorable for snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Timing could be a bit better but the details still need to be hammered out this weekend. A couple ensemble members have a pretty big snow. GFS is too warm and east but at this time, I would much rather have the Euro on our side compared to the GFS. Lol you must have been typing when I was. Yeah I agree leaning towards the Euro just because it has done better sniffing out the pattern better in the mid ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Also impressed by this mornings low of 15 degrees so far. Very winter like feeling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Lol you must have been typing when I was. Yeah I agree leaning towards the Euro just because it has done better sniffing out the pattern better in the mid ranges. Agreed Met and haha I think I was. This one just looks like a classic WNC snow. If we could get this to slow down a bit and come after the sun goes down we could really be in business. The Euro has hinted at this solution for the last 3 runs and now we are within its prime time to shine. 4-6 days is when the Euro shines so I am feeling it with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The gfs is probably too progressive and therfore too far east. On the euro we need the lead wave to slow down and dig farther southwest, we also need the follow up waste to dive in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I think my hometown in Eastern NC isn't getting anything wintry despite what GFS shows. Things look promising for y'all, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I think my hometown in Eastern NC isn't getting anything wintry despite what GFS shows. Things look promising for y'all, though! not really, it develops too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 not really, it develops too late. Weatherbell maps give AVL 5.8". Might not be all snow but that is decent precip and surface temps look favorable. Frankiln may be on the outside looking in but we all don't live in Franklin. Not trying to be rude at all man but we are still 4 days out and a lot can change. Just be happy to have something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Weatherbell maps give AVL 5.8". Might not be all snow but that is decent precip and surface temps look favorable. Frankiln may be on the outside looking in but we all don't live in Franklin. Not trying to be rude at all man but we are still 4 days out and a lot can change. Just be happy to have something to track!no offense taken, but I have been tracking these storms for many years, even before the internet. Unless we get an earlier phase and we can get some gulf moisture we won't see too much in accumulations, asheville included. And even the most phased solution right now has us on the edge, be mindful that the lesser extreme solutios like the gfs,ggem are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 no offense taken, but I have been tracking these storms for many years, even before the internet. Unless we get an earlier phase and we can get some gulf moisture we won't see too much in accumulations, asheville included. And even the most phased solution right now has us on the edge, be mindful that the lesser extreme solutios like the gfs,ggem are possible. Euro ensemble has 41/50 members with accumulation and 16 with 4"+. I will take my chances with the 18z GFS now showing at least some precip in wnc. Nonetheless just happy to have something to track and glad we can discuss without anyone getting mad or upset. I respect your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro ensemble has 41/50 members with accumulation and 16 with 4"+. I will take my chances with the 18z GFS now showing at least some precip in wnc. Nonetheless just happy to have something to track and glad we can discuss without anyone getting mad or upset. I respect your opinion.thanks, I don't recall ever having a white thanksgiving before. That will be neat. I think some snow will be in the air.Edited to add. This Nov has felt more like January with the temps and constant tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 thanks, I don't recall ever having a white thanksgiving before. That will be neat. I think some snow will be in the air. Edited to add. This Nov has felt more like January with the temps and constant tracking. Agreed Franklin, I can't remember so many mornings below freezing in November in a while. Usually we have a few mornings below freezing but every morning last week was near or below freezing. At least soil temps are favorable for accumulation. It makes me wonder what January will hold for WNC, I believe Met1985 has hit 0 already at least once maybe even twice. Hopefully we can get a few -AO's combined with two or three coastal's. That would make for a nice winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Agreed Franklin, I can't remember so many mornings below freezing in November in a while. Usually we have a few mornings below freezing but every morning last week was near or below freezing. At least soil temps are favorable for accumulation. It makes me wonder what January will hold for WNC, I believe Met1985 has hit 0 already at least once maybe even twice. Hopefully we can get a few -AO's combined with two or three coastal's. That would make for a nice winter!I think we will be fine once the seasonal jet sags farther south and can "lock in". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm more interested about tonight I'm already down to 33 was only supposed to drop to 35 an that was after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Agreed Franklin, I can't remember so many mornings below freezing in November in a while. Usually we have a few mornings below freezing but every morning last week was near or below freezing. Even down here in the flatlands, we have gone below freezing on 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Greer just mentioned the possiblity of some freezing rain in the northern mtns/foothills along the blue ridge in the morning with mozt pl es around freezing or a little below stronger cad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think the models will come around for the Wednesday/Thursday event, reminds me of a few systems we've had the last few years where all seems lost due to a late phase or no phase only to end up working out for us. Still plenty of time. Thanks everyone for the comments on my video I made, should be getting some great footage of most of the ski resorts on the east coast this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think the models will come around for the Wednesday/Thursday event, reminds me of a few systems we've had the last few years where all seems lost due to a late phase or no phase only to end up working out for us. Still plenty of time. Thanks everyone for the comments on my video I made, should be getting some great footage of most of the ski resorts on the east coast this year! You should do more projects around Asheville area Landscape of this city is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Even down here in the flatlands, we have gone below freezing on 10 days. That is impressive for yall down there. Ward I have hit 7 and 5 degrees this season already. Not zero yet! Lol. Yeah we are still way early in really nailing down anything at this point. It will be cold though but snow I am not really sure of as the models have not been very consistent recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro ensemble is eye candy guys... 43/50 with accumulation for KAVL and most are above 3". GFS finally got the memo on the 06z run and brings good moisture into WNC. Surface temps stay below 35 throughout the whole event. 3 days out with the Euro looking so favorable, I think its about time to take it to the bank. Haven't ever seen the Euro ensemble be that far off yet. NWF will also be active going into Thursday per GFS. Euro Snowfall map from Wundermap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro ensemble is eye candy guys... 43/50 with accumulation for KAVL and most are above 3". GFS finally got the memo on the 06z run and brings good moisture into WNC. Surface temps stay below 35 throughout the whole event. 3 days out with the Euro looking so favorable, I think its about time to take it to the bank. Haven't ever seen the Euro ensemble be that far off yet. NWF will also be active going into Thursday I am starting to come around as well. At 72-96 hours out, we should be in the wheelhouse for Euro to score big on accuracy. A few other points of interest: 1. Very latest 09Z SREF starting to come around as well...prior runs had but one member showing snow. Now we have about half the members on board, with one showing 7" for AVL. 2. What is very troubling is the parallel GFS being so different! It shows nothing for WNC. I was under the impression it was supposed to be able to compete with the Euro. So it's not about model resolution - it's about data ingest! Euro still slurps up the most data before it begins running. 3. Let's not focus on QPF too much just yet. If it's a Gulf low origin, then moisture is a non-issue if the dynamics are there. Watch how the low develops along the stalled boundary...the very same boundary going through the mountains on Monday. The dynamics should unfold with a lot of background potential temperature gradient to work with. I also think we see another 50 mile shift west again by the models before the usual oscillations thereafter. My experiential history of gulf lows is that they almost always end up further west than originally progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I am starting to come around as well. At 72-96 hours out, we should be in the wheelhouse for Euro to score big on accuracy. A few other points of interest: 1. Very latest 09Z SREF starting to come around as well...prior runs had but one member showing snow. Now we have about half the members on board, with one showing 7" for AVL. 2. What is very troubling is the parallel GFS being so different! It shows nothing for WNC. I was under the impression it was supposed to be able to compete with the Euro. So it's not about model resolution - it's about data ingest! Euro still slurps up the most data before it begins running. 3. Let's not focus on QPF too much just yet. If it's a Gulf low origin, then moisture is a non-issue if the dynamics are there. Watch how the low develops along the stalled boundary...the very same boundary going through the mountains on Monday. The dynamics should unfold with a lot of background potential temperature gradient to work with. I also think we see another 50 mile shift west again by the models before the usual oscillations thereafter. My experiential history of gulf lows is that they almost always end up further west than originally progged. Good post HT! Yeah was just about to post the SREF, it looks favorable for accumulation. I am also disappointed with the parallel, though if this storm doesn't unfold like the Euro is depicting, we will all be singing the parallels praise lol. Here are the plumes from the 09z SREF @KAVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah guys good trends on the models especially this mornings GFS run. Keep trending West and we will be in business. Also watch that impulse coming in on Thanksgiving. That could give us some upslope snow also. Still way to far out to nail down any accumulations but the trend is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nam is partly sunny sprinkles for the coast? Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Robert just made a new post at WXSouth. "Significant Snow" for western NC and mountains, may surprise a few others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Robert just made a new post at WXSouth. "Significant Snow" for western NC and mountains, may surprise a few others. Yeah the new 12z GFS trends even better for us. Will be paying attention to what Roberts thoughts are for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah the new 12z GFS trends even better for us. Will be paying attention to what Roberts thoughts are for sure. Robert says mostly all snow for Asheville and higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Robert says mostly all snow for Asheville and higher elevations. Yeah if this keeps trending west this could be a huge snowstorm for the mountains at one of the worst possible times of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What great trends overy the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 What great trends overy the last 24 hours. Yeah really it has been very significant for our forecast. IF we can phase earlier and trend just more west a bit bam taking about epic for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah if this keeps trending west this could be a huge snowstorm for the mountains at one of the worst possible times of the year. What great trends overy the last 24 hours. Yeah anyone traveling through the Gorge would be smart to come through Tuesday night because I could see them closing it. It would only take one wreck to shut that stretch down. I love the trends Franklin, this feels like the 09 storm all over again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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