Met1985 Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Had a low of 15 degrees still with some snow cover. Wow at the Euro in the mid to long range. After this Friday it looks as if the trough in the East is really locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Had a low of 15 degrees still with some snow cover. Wow at the Euro in the mid to long range. After this Friday it looks as if the trough in the East is really locked in. Yeah Met that is some cold air! Going to be fun to watch and as you said looks to lock in. I am just glad we didn't have to wait until late December to get our first snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hey hunter I saw your video on the wlos facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Euro ensembles continue to have a strong blocky look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Euro ensembles continue to have a strong blocky look. Yeah they look impressive. We are about to enter a pattern that may be repetitive most of the winter similar to last season with the EPO. This look to be a phenomenal pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah Met that is some cold air! Going to be fun to watch and as you said looks to lock in. I am just glad we didn't have to wait until late December to get our first snowfall! Very impressive indeed. Just trough after trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 8 days from now on the ECMWF looks wicked cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Great post by jb this evening! Really fired up about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Got one of emails from my ATMS professor about his project and man is he excited for this winter! We're all optimistic here at UNCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Thought there would be more chatter about two chances of snow this weekend in the mtns. of nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Thought there would be more chatter about two chances of snow this weekend in the mtns. of nc. Yes it looks like we have a least two chances for some snow. One is Thursday night into Friday morning and another is Saturday night into Sunday. Right know It looks very light and elevation driven at this point. The 18z is coming out as I type. But the thing that is getting my attention is the Euro in the 7-10 day period. The cold that is being advertised is down right impressive for anytime of the winter. The Euro has my attention for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Hey guys. The fiance and I are headed to Asheville this weekend for the Biltmore Christmas tours and we want to hike Sunday. Any recommendations that aren't too far of a drive from Asheville? This will be our first trip to the NC mtns so we are looking forward to it! And sorry for going OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Hey guys. The fiance and I are headed to Asheville this weekend for the Biltmore Christmas tours and we want to hike Sunday. Any recommendations that aren't too far of a drive from Asheville? This will be our first trip to the NC mtns so we are looking forward to it! And sorry for going OT. No problem There are few good, but short, options in Craggy Gardens area (5,500 to 5,800 feet) about 30 minutes on Blue Ridge Parkway to northeast from Asheville. One of those choices includes a short 30-45 minutes round trip from secondary parking lot to top of Craggy Pinnacle. This area is a great hike if you want something relaxing and/or have a picnic. Plus, Mt. Mitchell is only 10 miles up the road from this point so you could easily go to top of that mountain after a short hike at Craggy Gardens. My personal favorite hike is the one to top of Black Balsam Knob (6,214 feet) via Art Loeb Trail (trailhead is 0.2 mile on secondary road from 420.2 marker on B.P. Parkway). It isn't too long (about a mile, mile and quarter to top), but it's an interesting hike across a rocky bald on way there with some steep rises/drops. On this hike are some of my favorite views in entire Western NC. It's about a hour away to southwest from Asheville, but this is a great hike if you're looking for something more adventurous than relaxed. Both sites are balds and should have a great 360 degrees view at the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Euro keeps the hammer down in the Mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Hey guys. The fiance and I are headed to Asheville this weekend for the Biltmore Christmas tours and we want to hike Sunday. Any recommendations that aren't too far of a drive from Asheville? This will be our first trip to the NC mtns so we are looking forward to it! And sorry for going OT. Blue gave you a great synopsis! Craggy is the way to go and very accessible. But there are so many different option you really can't go wrong! Enjoy the Biltmore, for the first time ever they have a tree on the front lawn which is really neat. Biltmore at christmas is always a treat and will really get you in the Christmas spirit, have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Yes it looks like we have a least two chances for some snow. One is Thursday night into Friday morning and another is Saturday night into Sunday. Right know It looks very light and elevation driven at this point. The 18z is coming out as I type. But the thing that is getting my attention is the Euro in the 7-10 day period. The cold that is being advertised is down right impressive for anytime of the winter. The Euro has my attention for sure. I agree 7-10 day is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 12z NAM is showing decent moisture available for NWFS in the higher mountains tomorrow night. Also has moisture making it to the Henderson/Buncombe line. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dusting downtown overnight Thursday into Friday. Euro doesn't seem to do to well with NWF imo. GFS has shown the potential for the past fews days and the Euro hints at it but never really locks in. Euro ensemble says no accumulation at the airport but I remember a time or two last year where it showed something similar and the Airport ended up recording a trace. These events are so hard to forecast for the valleys, and we will need to look at 700mb winds a bit more, then 800-750mb EPVg map on synoptics as the event unfolds tomorrow night to see how much moisture is available. All in all this is a GREAT pattern for ski lovers because the high mountains have 2-3 chances over the next 10 days to receive flakes and with the temps going so low, they will be able to produce ample amounts of man made snow, so it has me excited. Tomorrow night should be interesting and windy for those above 3500' and I am hoping for another dose of wintertime (dusting) around the valley's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 The 18z NAM is showing some light snow breaking out along the boarder but nothing real heavy. The 18z GFS is rolling know. The Euro is not as impressive as the last few day with the cold breaking out later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The 18z NAM is showing some light snow breaking out along the boarder but nothing real heavy. The 18z GFS is rolling know. The Euro is not as impressive as the last few day with the cold breaking out later next week.18z GFS has moisture making it halfway through Buncombe Co.Euro ensemble has 23/50 members with a decent event in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Met figured that about the Euro as it was quiet. I am guessing models are going to change alot anyway for the next few days with the tropics interacting. Will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 18z GFS has moisture making it halfway through Buncombe Co. Euro ensemble has 23/50 members with a decent event in the long range. Which event and at what hour is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Met figured that about the Euro as it was quiet. I am guessing models are going to change alot anyway for the next few days with the tropics interacting. Will be fun to watch. Well still has a very cold northern tier but just does not drop the cold air as far south. To me lets get a good snow pack going early for the rest of winter. We will get ours I am sure of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Just took a look at the 18 gfs and it looks very similar to the NAM for Friday morning. Maybe a couple of inches in the favored areas but hey more snow during the first week in Novy?! Ill take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Which event and at what hour is that?Was speaking of the gfs for tomorrow night/fridam am on the carolinas weatherbell map and the euro ensemble for next thursday-friday. Sorry am on my cell atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Was speaking of the gfs for tomorrow night/fridam am on the carolinas weatherbell map and the euro ensemble for next thursday-friday. Sorry am on my cell atm. That's cool. Yeah it looks more and more like we will have some snow flying. Enjoy because we are going to have a lot of ups and downs the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 That's cool. Yeah it looks more and more like we will have some snow flying. Enjoy because we are going to have a lot of ups and downs the next few months. 18z GFS looks very interesting in the long range and lines up with the Euro's thinking. Gives most everyone in WNC 2"-3". Glad to see a little model consistency even though it is 9 days out. I see it is already getting some hype on social media though. Won't post about it on my site till I see some consistency but nonetheless good to see the Euro and GFS in agreement. That can all change though as we have seen in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 18z GFS looks very interesting in the long range and lines up with the Euro's thinking. Gives most everyone in WNC 2"-3". Glad to see a little model consistency even though it is 9 days out. I see it is already getting some hype on social media though. Won't post about it on my site till I see some consistency but nonetheless good to see the Euro and GFS in agreement. That can all change though as we have seen in the past. Yeah I am really not biting on anything past this weekend. Will be interesting to watch though. I still do not think the models have a good handle on next weeks pattern either. Going to be lots of swings in the models as we go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 This mornings NAM looks fairly well for flakes falling starting around midnight tonight. The Euro looked ok. Keeps most of the cold up north but we are on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 This mornings NAM looks fairly well for flakes falling starting around midnight tonight. The Euro looked ok. Keeps most of the cold up north but we are on the edge. Overall, very disappointed in what appears to be the pattern for the ten days or so. Despite the nearly record breaking cold air mass that will be entering the U.S., most of its effects will likely just miss the local area. Just a tease really. Areas from West Virginia to the Great Lakes are going to get nailed with lake effect and upslope snow in many areas and some chances for storm snow as well. It appears the cold air may just ooze in locally without much fan fare. Still it will be below normal with some chances of snow which is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Overall, very disappointed in what appears to be the pattern for the ten days or so. Despite the nearly record breaking cold air mass that will be entering the U.S., most of its effects will likely just miss the local area. Just a tease really. Areas from West Virginia to the Great Lakes are going to get nailed with lake effect and upslope snow in many areas and some chances for storm snow as well. It appears the cold air may just ooze in locally without much fan fare. Still it will be below normal with some chances of snow which is better than nothing. Agreed. Long range pattern is decidedly cold, but dry. Very typical of Northwest flow at 5h...especially in the winter. Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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