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Nasty, raw Halloween weekend


Hoosier

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Flakes look like a good bet here, even if it's only a trace...

As I said earlier....only 5 previous Halloweens have had snow at Detroit (officially)

1874- T

1875- T

1917- T

1955- T

1993- 0.1"

One additional Halloween (1925) had a T on the ground at obs time (the above 5 all had 0 on the ground)

 

Would love to see some measurable snow...but we shall see! Side note..Ive heard people say.."I remember trick or treating in the snow when I was a kid". LOL. Nope, try again.

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14Z update via LOT...

 

 

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY STEADY AT 340-350 AT ORD AND
MDW. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN AND THIS WILL TURN WINDS MORE DUE NORTH.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY LATER FOR DUE NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TAF. WIND SPEED
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE SO IT IS POSSIBLE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL.
 

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another update via LOT...

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1005 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1001 AM CDT

WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A SECONDARY INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY RACING SOUTHWARD DOWN CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. OBSERVATIONS OVER AND NEAR THE LAKE INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF MKE. OVERALL IT APPEARS
THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS (BY 1630Z). HOWEVER...I AM ALSO
CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THESE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO THROUGH LATE MORNING. IN FACT...SOME OF THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY IS ALREADY INDICATING SOME BANDS OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY. IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...AND WIND SPEEDS
COULD ALSO INCREASE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENT WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH OBSERVATION TRENDS...AND HANDLE THIS SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA WITH GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS AT THIS TIME. IT
DOES APPEAR THIS INITIAL BURST OF SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT
LIVED ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. WHILE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WE HAVE
NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO EXPAND THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY AND BURST OF SNOW...HI RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREAS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE WINTER HEADLINE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON TRYING TO WORK MORE WEST INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS. SOME
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL EFFECT AREAS
NEAR...OR EVEN ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA STATE LINE....AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF CHICAGO AS WELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...AND UNCERTAINTY STILL INHERENT IN WHERE ANY LAKE EFFECT
BAND...OR BANDS WILL SET UP...I WOULD LIKE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE BEFORE PUSHING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND WINTER
HEADLINES FARTHER WEST.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE. HOWEVER...I WILL LIKELY
ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FOR AREAS A BIT FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS BASED ON REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW...AND
RADAR TRENDS.

KJB

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Anyone have any good webcam links along Lake Michigan in NW Indiana? I found one for Miller Beach but it's not working for me. I checked a few Chicago webcams and the Lake isn't too impressive here, just choppy.

 

Somewhat answering my own question, but the images from Michigan City give a nice idea of how conditions have changed even just in the last several hours.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/metdata/mcy/

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