Thunder Road Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 It's kind of funny actually, the conventional wisdom around here is that LES bands always verify west east of where they're modeled, but I've seen about a 50/50 split, or perhaps even more of them verifying west. Even our one good LES event in Feb 2012 we really got fringed on - around 4" here but 15" just a few miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Interestingly LOT just hoisted a wind advisory for a chunk of the eastern cwa but left out the Indiana counties with the exception of Benton. Either an oversight or they're planning on going with some other type of headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 ^I'm pretty sure LOT is going with a winter weather advisory for those 4 Indiana counties left out of the wind advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Not to undermine the snow potential but the wind potential looks to be pretty stout, with winds gusting around 40. Couple that with temperatures in the low to mid 30s you are looking at a wind chill around 20 maybe even a bit lower. It certainly looks like one of the worst Halloweens for trick-or-treaters tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 pretty sure i'll go over 50 lakeside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Snow has entered my grid forecast here in the brook....i am usually swiped by LE for a short stint....so it wouldn't shock me to see flakes at least mixing in for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 pretty sure i'll go over 50 lakeside Oh yeah, sorry I was talking locally. At the southern end of Lake Michigan someone might gust over 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 ^I'm pretty sure LOT is going with a winter weather advisory for those 4 Indiana counties left out of the wind advisory. Yep. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Yep. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY. Good afd from them, laying out the uncertainty. Can tell they don't have a lot of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 nice cold slug coming on down into Northern Minnesota ...loop is worth a look also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Good afd from them, laying out the uncertainty. Can tell they don't have a lot of confidence. Interesting that they haven't actually pushed out the product yet though. I assume it'll come any minute now. fwiw I think the AFD expresses the uncertainty very well, and the snowfall grids match exactly what I would have done. Put the max somewhere in the Crown Point-Lowell-Hebron triangle, which right now they have at a very reasonable 2-3" (though I would not be at all surprised if someone in that triangle hit 6") and keep lower amounts outside of it. imby, I'm thinking we eek out 1-2" of wind-driven paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Would anyone be offended if I set some official over/unders? These are for anywhere in the LOT or IWX CWA, ending at 18z Saturday. Wind gust: 61 mph Measured snowfall*: 5.5" *Any official ob, spotter report or CoOp report deemed valid enough by the NWS to publish in a PNS is fair game. Deadline is midnight tonight! Edit: Tie-breaker: location of max snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Would anyone be offended if I set some official over/unders? These are for anywhere in the LOT or IWX CWA, ending at 18z Saturday. Wind gust: 61 mph Measured snowfall*: 5.5" *Any official ob, spotter report or CoOp report deemed valid enough by the NWS to publish in a PNS is fair game. Deadline is midnight tonight! Edit: Tie-breaker: location of max snowfall Over for both and Ainsworth IN for the max location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 over 61mph under 5.5" Shererville, IN 4.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Would anyone be offended if I set some official over/unders? These are for anywhere in the LOT or IWX CWA, ending at 18z Saturday. Wind gust: 61 mph Measured snowfall*: 5.5" *Any official ob, spotter report or CoOp report deemed valid enough by the NWS to publish in a PNS is fair game. Deadline is midnight tonight! Edit: Tie-breaker: location of max snowfall Wind: OverSnow: Over Tiebreaker: Cedar Lake, IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 over over Lowell, IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Wind gust: Over Measured snowfall*: Over Tie-breaker: Hebron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Wind: Over Snow: Over Tie: Winfield, IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z RGEM shifted west...actually has the bulk of the event from the IL state line west. Wouldn't bite on that solution yet but it'll be interesting to see the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Would anyone be offended if I set some official over/unders?overunder And we'll take the west shift for pride reasons and go far southside (represent) for tiebreaker, call it Pullman or Morgan Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Last 4 runs of the 4 km NAM. Not focusing too much on exact placement or amounts... each run is putting out big snow totals somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wind: Over Snowfall: Under Tiebreaker: I agree with Hoosier on Lowell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wind: Equal Snow : Under Wheeler IN 2.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Little note on LOT's winter wx advisory... I couldn't find one that was issued as early as this (also searched Snow Advisory) but the archive doesn't go back really far. The previous earliest that I could find was 11/10/2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 00z RAP has 850 mb temps of -10C into northern IL at 18z, which is a tad colder than most other models at that time. Any colder trend at all would certainly help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 18z RGEM shifted west...actually has the bulk of the event from the IL state line west. Wouldn't bite on that solution yet but it'll be interesting to see the 00z run. I've learned from my years here to not dismiss these trends in the hi-res models in the last 24 hours. That said, given how strong winds will be I'm skeptical of the snowfall distribution being as narrow as the 4 km NAM has modeled. Still, could be another infuriatingly close miss. If by mid-afternoon it looks like we'll be fringed, I might take a ride down to Hebron... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 I've learned from my years here to not dismiss these trends in the hi-res models in the last 24 hours. That said, given how strong winds will be I'm skeptical of the snowfall distribution being as narrow as the 4 km NAM has modeled. Still, could be another infuriatingly close miss. If by mid-afternoon it looks like we'll be fringed, I might take a ride down to Hebron... Growing up in western Lake county, I know all about infuriatingly close misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 00z 4 km NAM shifted west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Growing up in western Lake county, I know all about infuriatingly close misses. I haven't lived here long enough to know the climo, but this has got to be unusual, right? Lake County getting three in a row with Porter shut out. (January, April, now October.) If you believe 4 km NAM, we're done with any and all rain/snow by 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wind gust: 61 mph, over Measured snowfall*: 5.5", over *Any official ob, spotter report or CoOp report deemed valid enough by the NWS to publish in a PNS is fair game. Edit: Tie-breaker: location of max snowfall: Crown Point That is farther west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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