Gilbertfly Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 P & C out at the farm (near galena) has 23 for the low friday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Don't look at the 18z hi-res NAM snow map Might as well post it for giggles. A total and complete clown show. 8" amounts into the NW corner of Tippecanoe County...from LES...in October...not enough to post at the 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Might as well post it for giggles. A total and complete clown show. 8" amounts into the NW corner of Tippecanoe County...from LES...in October...not enough to post at the 4km NAM. clowniestlesever.gif Yeah, it's pretty extreme. To be fair, IIRC, between the NMM, HRW and hi-res NAM, two of the models showed up to a foot in the NE Ohio Snowbelt a day before the October 23-24th LES snowstorm east of Cleveland that dropped 8" last year, so we'll see if the signal holds. At this point I'd be more worried about getting a consolidated band and figuring out possible amounts later. 8" that far inland from the lake is insane, let alone in October, but it wouldn't surprise me if a bullseye of 6"+ occurs if an intense band sets up for several hours. If it's snowing 1-2" per hour it will stick even if air temps are in the mid 30's. But I don't want to get ahead of myself. 0z NAM pretty much holds serve with everything it looks like, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Might as well go full boat. 24"+ amounts (yellow and light pink shading) showing up on the 0z run for Porter and Jasper counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Might as well go full boat. 24"+ amounts (yellow and light pink shading) showing up on the 0z run for Porter and Jasper counties. 10:30 4km nam snow total.gif How do you get those snow maps? I can't seem to find them. And where the heck is Keener. Normally he'd be here as his backyard is in the target zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Man those clown maps are off the wall tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 How do you get those snow maps? I can't seem to find them. And where the heck is Keener. Normally he'd be here as his backyard is in the target zone. Left side of the page once you get to the high res stuff on PSU's page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Left side of the page once you get to the high res stuff on PSU's page. I see it, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I think this is the definition of a power band: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 And where the heck is Keener. Normally he'd be here as his backyard is in the target zone. Yeah, where is he? This is like his bread and butter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lake induced EL's in BUFKIT get to around 19,000 feet for a time on the NAM, with 500mb temps over the lake getting down to -34C for a time Friday afternoon (a lake-500mb temp differential of 45-48C!)...things are checking out for thunder and lightning in any band Friday afternoon and evening unless there are wholesale changes between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 It'll be interesting to see how quickly the band dies out on Saturday. Delta Ts remain ~20C for a while after inversion heights fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 SPC showing some love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 so this might actually happen, huh hope the NW IN posters deliver pics of their +TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lake effect snow adv issued for most of the central and west UP. Looks like I have a good shot at 8" EXPECT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM HERMAN THROUGH NEGAUNEE TO GWINN AND SKANDIA. EXPECT THE LEAST ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lake effect snow adv issued for most of the central and west UP. Looks like I have a good shot at 8" EXPECT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM HERMAN THROUGH NEGAUNEE TO GWINN AND SKANDIA. EXPECT THE LEAST ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE 1380515_939827089380516_1424749680768053358_n.png Nice Bo, Looks like you will get your first taste of Lake Superior LES, enjoy!!! Looks like may I get a slushy 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Somebody along the Lake Michigan shoreline should pull off a 60-65 mph gust tomorrow, though it may be hard to capture at an ob site. GYY obs should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Bo starts his journey to 200+ inches tonight. Get that sled out and buzz around the yard with it if you wanna make me really get jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 4 km NAM has an area of 65 kt winds at 850 mb over southern Lake Michigan tomorrow. Also you can see a strip of warmer 850 mb temps over the lake and into NW Indiana, which is probably the model's attempt to account for the tremendous heat flux from the lake. An interesting thing to consider is what happens in any of the convective elements tomorrow...do they actually enhance the gusts at the surface to some degree? The core of the strongest winds is pretty low in the atmosphere anyway though (at least until you get way up in the mid/upper levels) so this may be irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The 12z 4km NAM has a precip signal in northeast IL till 21z Saturday where the 6z GFS has hardly any precip into IL. LOT seems to be favoring GFS/Euro as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 The 12z 4km NAM has a precip signal in northeast IL till 21z Saturday where the 6z GFS has hardly any precip into IL. LOT seems to be favoring GFS/Euro as it looks now. The GFS is killing things off a bit too quickly imo. The 6z run had no precip after 6z Saturday which looks unrealistic. Inversion heights come down but delta Ts are favorable well into Saturday morning. If we have a decent band then it should take a while to wind down completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Seeing some slight model differences in terms of band placement as the NMM, ARW and RGEM are generally placing the most intense focus in Lake county with somewhat less impact in Porter (especially eastern). Even if the band starts out a little farther east than these models, I'd still lean more toward Lake county for a better chance of accumulations as the band should be there or shifting there by late afternoon/evening. Also will need to watch the areas just across the IL state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Surf's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 zoomed in NMM ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Surf's up. WaveHeight_2014103118_mic.png WaveHeight_2014103121_mic.png WaveHeight_2014110100_mic.png WaveHeight_2014110103_mic.png last time i saw someone surfing, the cops came and made him come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Too bad this wasn't a sure bet heavy LES event coming up or I probably would of made the trek tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Too bad this wasn't a sure bet heavy LES event coming up or I probably would of made the trek tomorrow. Me too. It's an unusually risky setup with the ptype uncertainties. At least the band looks like it will be quasi-stationary or slowly shifting. I might still end up going depending how things look tomorrow but it would be a last minute call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 That 10/7-10/8/2000 event that managed to dump 6" on Peotone had very similar thermal profiles to the upcoming one (925/850 mb temps generally within 1-2C over the southern part of the lake)...imo it's probably the best comparison in that regard if we just look at October or early November events of recent years, and also it affected a similar area to what this one will. The setups are different though and the band will be drifting west with time in this case, unlike 2000 when it drifted east. Low level flow is stronger in this case. Lake temps are about 2-3C colder this time which means that delta Ts should be a little less. The 2000 event relied on heavy precip/convection to flip over to snow...if it happened in early October then there really shouldn't be a reason to doubt it now when it's almost a month later but I'm still going to be kinda uneasy until I actually see the band taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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