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Nasty, raw Halloween weekend


Hoosier

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Might as well post it for giggles. A total and complete clown show. 8" amounts into the NW corner of Tippecanoe County...from LES...in October...not enough :weenie: to post at the 4km NAM. :lol:

 

attachicon.gifclowniestlesever.gif

Yeah, it's pretty extreme. To be fair, IIRC, between the NMM, HRW and hi-res NAM, two of the models showed up to a foot in the NE Ohio Snowbelt a day before the October 23-24th LES snowstorm east of Cleveland that dropped 8" last year, so we'll see if the signal holds.

 

At this point I'd be more worried about getting a consolidated band and figuring out possible amounts later. 8" that far inland from the lake is insane, let alone in October, but it wouldn't surprise me if a bullseye of 6"+ occurs if an intense band sets up for several hours. If it's snowing 1-2" per hour it will stick even if air temps are in the mid 30's. But I don't want to get ahead of myself.

 

0z NAM pretty much holds serve with everything it looks like, FWIW.

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Might as well go full boat. 24"+ amounts (yellow and light pink shading) showing up on the 0z run for Porter and Jasper counties.

 

attachicon.gif10:30 4km nam snow total.gif

 

 

How do you get those snow maps?  I can't seem to find them.

 

And where the heck is Keener.  Normally he'd be here as his backyard is in the target zone.

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Lake induced EL's in BUFKIT get to around 19,000 feet for a time on the NAM, with 500mb temps over the lake getting down to -34C for a time Friday afternoon (a lake-500mb temp differential of 45-48C!)...things are checking out for thunder and lightning in any band Friday afternoon and evening unless there are wholesale changes between now and then.

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Lake effect snow adv issued for most of the central and west UP.  Looks like I have a good shot at 8"  :snowing:

 

  EXPECT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH
   FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION OVER HIGHER
   TERRAIN FROM HERMAN THROUGH NEGAUNEE TO GWINN AND SKANDIA. EXPECT
   THE LEAST ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE

 

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Lake effect snow adv issued for most of the central and west UP.  Looks like I have a good shot at 8"  :snowing:

 

  EXPECT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH

   FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION OVER HIGHER

   TERRAIN FROM HERMAN THROUGH NEGAUNEE TO GWINN AND SKANDIA. EXPECT

   THE LEAST ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE

 

attachicon.gif1380515_939827089380516_1424749680768053358_n.png

Nice Bo,

 

Looks like you will get your first taste of Lake Superior LES, enjoy!!! Looks like may I get a slushy 1-2 inches.

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4 km NAM has an area of 65 kt winds at 850 mb over southern Lake Michigan tomorrow.  Also you can see a strip of warmer 850 mb temps over the lake and into NW Indiana, which is probably the model's attempt to account for the tremendous heat flux from the lake.

 

 

post-14-0-26122100-1414681554_thumb.gif

 

 

An interesting thing to consider is what happens in any of the convective elements tomorrow...do they actually enhance the gusts at the surface to some degree?  The core of the strongest winds is pretty low in the atmosphere anyway though (at least until you get way up in the mid/upper levels) so this may be irrelevant.

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The 12z 4km NAM has a precip signal in northeast IL till 21z Saturday where the 6z GFS has hardly any precip into IL. 

 

LOT seems to be favoring GFS/Euro as it looks now.

 

 

The GFS is killing things off a bit too quickly imo.  The 6z run had no precip after 6z Saturday which looks unrealistic.  Inversion heights come down but delta Ts are favorable well into Saturday morning.  If we have a decent band then it should take a while to wind down completely. 

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Seeing some slight model differences in terms of band placement as the NMM, ARW and RGEM are generally placing the most intense focus in Lake county with somewhat less impact in Porter (especially eastern).  Even if the band starts out a little farther east than these models, I'd still lean more toward Lake county for a better chance of accumulations as the band should be there or shifting there by late afternoon/evening.  Also will need to watch the areas just across the IL state line. 

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Too bad this wasn't a sure bet heavy LES event coming up or I probably would of made the trek tomorrow. 

 

 

Me too.  It's an unusually risky setup with the ptype uncertainties.  At least the band looks like it will be quasi-stationary or slowly shifting.  I might still end up going depending how things look tomorrow but it would be a last minute call. 

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That 10/7-10/8/2000 event that managed to dump 6" on Peotone had very similar thermal profiles to the upcoming one (925/850 mb temps generally within 1-2C over the southern part of the lake)...imo it's probably the best comparison in that regard if we just look at October or early November events of recent years, and also it affected a similar area to what this one will.  The setups are different though and the band will be drifting west with time in this case, unlike 2000 when it drifted east.  Low level flow is stronger in this case.  Lake temps are about 2-3C colder this time which means that delta Ts should be a little less.  The 2000 event relied on heavy precip/convection to flip over to snow...if it happened in early October then there really shouldn't be a reason to doubt it now when it's almost a month later but I'm still going to be kinda uneasy until I actually see the band taking shape. 

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