Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Normally I probably wouldn't make a thread for this but since it looks like some areas will see their first flakes and with the potential for more interesting weather near the Lakes, what the heck. Shaping up to be one of the more miserable Halloweens in the past 10-20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Or fun Halloween for some. Be nice to see some flakes fly maybe even get a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yeah...p&c windchills in the 20's from 6pm friday through 9am saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 IND calling for 49 at IND on Friday. There have been 27 Halloweens with a sub 50 degree high and it occurs just under once every 5 years on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Kinda wish I had a JV football game to ref this Saturday. Would be awesome to officiate a football game in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Snow showers in the forecast here Friday evening. The best Halloween costume may be a Santa suit. LAF could see a few flakes from LES if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I know this was mentioned in the general October thread, but nice. I'd have to imagine it'd be quite a scene in eastern IL/IN and maybe even MI for trick or treat time with these winds right off the deck and good CAA ongoing...not to mention with the threat for rain/snow showers around too. It was never this fun when I trick or treated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 I know this was mentioned in the general October thread, but nice. I'd have to imagine it'd be quite a scene in eastern IL/IN and maybe even MI for trick or treat time with these winds right off the deck and good CAA ongoing...not to mention with the threat for rain/snow showers around too. It was never this fun when I trick or treated NAM 925mb wind.gif Setups aren't the same but the conditions are a bit reminiscent of Halloween 1994 (date of the tragic Roselawn IN plane crash). Gary ripped out a 52 mph wind gust that day and I'd imagine something like that may happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Man, check out the obs from CGX that day http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCGX/1994/10/31/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Gary+%2F+Chicago&req_state=IN&req_statename=Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Setups aren't the same but the conditions are a bit reminiscent of Halloween 1994 (date of the tragic Roselawn IN plane crash). Gary ripped out a 52 mph wind gust that day and I'd imagine something like that may happen again.Verbatim the pressure gradient looks stronger this Friday than in 1994, but we'll see if the models hold their solutions for 2.5 days or not. Someone will probably get breezy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Normally I probably wouldn't make a thread for this but since it looks like some areas will see their first flakes and with the potential for more interesting weather near the Lakes, what the heck. Shaping up to be one of the more miserable Halloweens in the past 10-20 years. There was a severe weather outbreak last Halloween which i would consider miserable. It will be one of the colder ones in some time though. Can't remember the last time i saw snowflakes on Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 I looked up the water temperatures at the southern Lake Michigan buoy for a few of the early season lake effect snow events that impacted IL/IN...here they are: 11/9-11/1996: 45F 11/14-15/1997: 50F 10/7-8/2000: 59F Right now the southern buoy is at 54 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Going to be a cold Halloween for sure. Low 40s and windy conditions forecasted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 With possible snowflakes in Friday...I looked up how often there has been snow in Detroit on Halloween. The answer? Not often. In fact, since 1874, only 5 times has it snowed on Halloween, and 2 of those were the first 2 years on record (which dont TECHNICALLY count because Detroit snow data from 1874-79 has some M data so DTX doesnt start snowfall data til 1880). Only 1 time did Halloween have some snow on the ground. Halloweens with snowfall 1874- T 1875- T 1917- T 1955- T 1993- 0.1" Halloweens with snow on the ground 1925- T 5 coldest Halloweens for HIGH temp (there have been 6 times Halloween had highs in the 30s) ............HI....LO 1925- 34....24 1875- 35....31 1879- 37....26 1878- 38....30 1923- 38....27 5 coldest Halloweens for LOW temp 1988- 48....21 1917- 34....24 1879- 37....26 1968- 59....26 1975- 52....27 1976- 46....27 5 warmest Halloweens for HIGH temp (there have been 9 times Halloween had a high in the 70s) 1950- 79....56 1900- 74....59 2003- 73....53 1876- 72....57 1888- 72....42 1974- 72....60 So...only 5 times has it snowed on October 31st. However...it has snowed on Oct 19th 8 times, 20th 10 times, 21st 11 times, 23rd 8 times, 24th 7 times, 25th 6 times, 27th 14 times, 28th 11 times, 29th 10 times, and 30th 7 times...so we are due! (thanks xmacis lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 One thing evident on the 00z NAM so far is stronger ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 With possible snowflakes in Friday...I looked up how often there has been snow in Detroit on Halloween. The answer? Not often. In fact, since 1874, only 5 times has it snowed on Halloween, and 2 of those were the first 2 years on record (which dont TECHNICALLY count because Detroit snow data from 1874-79 has some M data so DTX doesnt start snowfall data til 1880). Only 1 time did Halloween have some snow on the ground. Halloweens with snowfall 1874- T 1875- T 1917- T 1955- T 1993- 0.1" Halloweens with snow on the ground 1925- T 5 coldest Halloweens for HIGH temp (there have been 6 times Halloween had highs in the 30s) ............HI....LO 1925- 34....24 1875- 35....31 1879- 37....26 1878- 38....30 1923- 38....27 5 coldest Halloweens for LOW temp 1988- 48....21 1917- 34....24 1879- 37....26 1968- 59....26 1975- 52....27 1976- 46....27 5 warmest Halloweens for HIGH temp (there have been 9 times Halloween had a high in the 70s) 1950- 79....56 1900- 74....59 2003- 73....53 1876- 72....57 1888- 72....42 1974- 72....60 So...only 5 times has it snowed on October 31st. However...it has snowed on Oct 19th 8 times, 20th 10 times, 21st 11 times, 23rd 8 times, 24th 7 times, 25th 6 times, 27th 14 times, 28th 11 times, 29th 10 times, and 30th 7 times...so we are due! (thanks xmacis lol). Nice stats. Buffalos stats for Halloween snowfall. It has snowed on 12 Halloweens in Buffalo, going back to 1871. The most recent significant snow was in 1993, when 2.8″ fell officially after rain during the day. Data shows measurable snow is still a relatively rare event on October 31. Of those 12 Halloweens with observed snow for Buffalo, only 6 have been more than a trace, and just 4 over 1″…and just 1 over 5″, in 1912 (6″). - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Impressive lake effect signal on the 00z NAM...has over a half inch of precip in nw IN by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 One thing evident on the 00z NAM so far is stronger ridging out west. Also looks slower compared to the GFS digging the wave across our area Fri/Fri night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yeah no kidding about the LES signal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Impressive lake effect signal on the 00z NAM...has over a half inch of precip in nw IN by the end of the run. a small .70" contour it looks like. Attempts to get a precip/LE signal on this side of the lake by 12z Sat but might be harder to come by as high pressure builds in pretty quickly in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'm getting lake induced CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg when plugging in the water temp at the south buoy. Even areas just a bit inland from the lake have several hundred J/kg of SBCAPE on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Freshies are gonna be freezing walking to the Halloween frat parties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Freshies are gonna be freezing waiting in line for the Halloween frat parties Darn In all seriousness though it is going to be a shock to the system especially since we were in the 70s yesterday and even Thursday doesn't look too bad compared to Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'm gonna have to dig into some of the known early LES cases to see what 850 mb temps were like...maybe it can serve as a guide. I know that Nov 1996 had temps that were colder. Another thing that hasn't been mentioned much is wind. The mixed layer flow looks fairly unidirectional but it's howling on the GFS, which has a band of 50 kt 925 mb winds at 00z Sat before weakening. It'll be interesting to see what kind of effect that has on overall organization, but it may mean very deep inland penetration. If the GFS is right, there may be a window of 50-60 mph wind gusts near the lake. We did a few LES forecasting exercises at the beginning of our research class last year. Unfortunately I don't remember the date (though I'm pretty sure it was much deeper into the season) but one of them had 40-50 kt 850 winds, and the result was a broader area of lake-effect snow than the tight band you normally get. Now in this case the mean wind was also probably more like 330, so it doesn't compare directly, but the strong 850-925 winds on Friday may also have the effect of broadening the band Friday night. (I decided to bring this over from the general thread since we're discussing LES in here now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Freshies are gonna be freezing walking to the Halloween frat parties I guess it turns out that slutty nurse, slutty skeleton and slutty Catwoman were all bad costume choices this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 0z GFS looks just a touch faster than the NAM with the vort max dropping down (and closes it off sooner), but the end result looks similar for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NAM: Closeup precip accumulated map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 We did a few LES forecasting exercises at the beginning of our research class last year. Unfortunately I don't remember the date (though I'm pretty sure it was much deeper into the season) but one of them had 40-50 kt 850 winds, and the result was a broader area of lake-effect snow than the tight band you normally get. Now in this case the mean wind was also probably more like 330, so it doesn't compare directly, but the strong 850-925 winds on Friday may also have the effect of broadening the band Friday night. (I decided to bring this over from the general thread since we're discussing LES in here now.) That makes sense. Thanks. It's going to be a headache trying to forecast precip type with this and I would not put a lot of stock in precip type progs. Throw in the possibility of thunder and it adds more uncertainty. If the models are correct with 925 mb temps dipping below freezing during the afternoon, then there will be the risk of snow mixing in or possibly even going to all wet snow in localized heavier bursts as early as then. Then the issue is how well will surface temps respond. Edit: GGEM goes ape with the lake precip. Wow. And it has the max far inland...like Newton county lol. Looking at more for fun than anything although I do take the RGEM more seriously when it gets in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 As posted in the monthly thread... If snow does occur at ORD on Friday, It will be the first Halloween since 1993 to feature snow...And only the 5th time on record (1993, 1955, 1926, 1918, 1917). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 We did a few LES forecasting exercises at the beginning of our research class last year. Unfortunately I don't remember the date (though I'm pretty sure it was much deeper into the season) but one of them had 40-50 kt 850 winds, and the result was a broader area of lake-effect snow than the tight band you normally get. Now in this case the mean wind was also probably more like 330, so it doesn't compare directly, but the strong 850-925 winds on Friday may also have the effect of broadening the band Friday night. (I decided to bring this over from the general thread since we're discussing LES in here now.) Do you remember off the top of your head how much directional shear that event had? That could also contribute to the broadening of the band. Regardless, it still looks like a marginal (but potentially interesting) situation downwind of Lake MI. For kicks, the NAM shows 925mb temps getting down below 0C around 0z Friday even in the lake effect band it tries depicting...although it takes until after 3z to get them down closer to -2C, which is probably what it would take to get good accums with the lack of "terrain" in NW IN unless a really strong band develops earlier. Instability numbers and equilibrium levels are essentially limitless in term of lake effect potential for the first few hours Friday evening before slowly coming down through the night...however, EL's don't look to become prohibitive for potentially accumulating snow in an organized band until close to sunrise Saturday. Things look pretty dry before that, but with all of Lake MI to work with I'd have to imagine that isn't as prohibitive as it is off of my small Great Lake. It's a short window of eye popping lake effect parameters in the evening when low level temps are iffier, followed by ok parameters for the rest of the night with better low level temps. It would be nice if the winds weren't so strong Friday evening, as that would be the potential period to rack up some decent accums given the parameters if a good band can develop and compensate for the marginal looking low level temps. Any band that develops will probably slowly drift west later at night as the winds slowly veer. The instability numbers and 850mb temps Friday evening make me want to get excited for a decent early season LES event in parts of NW Indiana, but if the winds are too strong to get a good band that does work and dynamically cools the lower levels in the evening that may not happen, and then later at night when it's colder things gradually become more and more marginal for good lake effect snow due to lower inversions and increasing dry air, and perhaps a moving band. It's still a few days out, so we'll see what the models say as we get closer. Prospects off of Lake Erie look lack luster now unless a pretty big shift east starts occurring soon, but it would be nice for someone to get a nice little bit of LES out of this somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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