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Nasty, raw Halloween weekend


Hoosier

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Normally I probably wouldn't make a thread for this but since it looks like some areas will see their first flakes and with the potential for more interesting weather near the Lakes, what the heck.

 

Shaping up to be one of the more miserable Halloweens in the past 10-20 years. 

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I know this was mentioned in the general October thread, but nice. I'd have to imagine it'd be quite a scene in eastern IL/IN and maybe even MI for trick or treat time with these winds right off the deck and good CAA ongoing...not to mention with the threat for rain/snow showers around too. It was never this fun when I trick or treated :P

 

post-525-0-57875500-1414542416_thumb.gif

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I know this was mentioned in the general October thread, but nice. I'd have to imagine it'd be quite a scene in eastern IL/IN and maybe even MI for trick or treat time with these winds right off the deck and good CAA ongoing...not to mention with the threat for rain/snow showers around too. It was never this fun when I trick or treated :P

 

attachicon.gifNAM 925mb wind.gif

 

 

Setups aren't the same but the conditions are a bit reminiscent of Halloween 1994 (date of the tragic Roselawn IN plane crash).  Gary ripped out a 52 mph wind gust that day and I'd imagine something like that may happen again. 

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Setups aren't the same but the conditions are a bit reminiscent of Halloween 1994 (date of the tragic Roselawn IN plane crash). Gary ripped out a 52 mph wind gust that day and I'd imagine something like that may happen again.

Verbatim the pressure gradient looks stronger this Friday than in 1994, but we'll see if the models hold their solutions for 2.5 days or not. Someone will probably get breezy though.
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Normally I probably wouldn't make a thread for this but since it looks like some areas will see their first flakes and with the potential for more interesting weather near the Lakes, what the heck.

 

Shaping up to be one of the more miserable Halloweens in the past 10-20 years. 

There was a severe weather outbreak last Halloween which i would consider miserable. It will be one of the colder ones in some time though. Can't remember the last time i saw snowflakes on Halloween.

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I looked up the water temperatures at the southern Lake Michigan buoy for a few of the early season lake effect snow events that impacted IL/IN...here they are:

 

11/9-11/1996:  45F

11/14-15/1997:  50F

10/7-8/2000:  59F

 

Right now the southern buoy is at 54 degrees.

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With possible snowflakes in Friday...I looked up how often there has been snow in Detroit on Halloween. The answer? Not often. In fact, since 1874, only 5 times has it snowed on Halloween, and 2 of those were the first 2 years on record (which dont TECHNICALLY count because Detroit snow data from 1874-79 has some M data so DTX doesnt start snowfall data til 1880). Only 1 time did Halloween have some snow on the ground.

 

Halloweens with snowfall

1874- T

1875- T

1917- T

1955- T

1993- 0.1"

 

Halloweens with snow on the ground

1925- T

 

5 coldest Halloweens for HIGH temp (there have been 6 times Halloween had highs in the 30s)

............HI....LO

1925- 34....24

1875- 35....31

1879- 37....26

1878- 38....30

1923- 38....27

 

5 coldest Halloweens for LOW temp

1988- 48....21

1917- 34....24

1879- 37....26

1968- 59....26

1975- 52....27

1976- 46....27

 

5 warmest Halloweens for HIGH temp (there have been 9 times Halloween had a high in the 70s)

1950- 79....56

1900- 74....59

2003- 73....53

1876- 72....57

1888- 72....42

1974- 72....60

 

So...only 5 times has it snowed on October 31st. However...it has snowed on Oct 19th 8 times, 20th 10 times, 21st 11 times, 23rd 8 times, 24th 7 times, 25th 6 times, 27th 14 times, 28th 11 times, 29th 10 times, and 30th 7 times...so we are due! (thanks xmacis lol).

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With possible snowflakes in Friday...I looked up how often there has been snow in Detroit on Halloween. The answer? Not often. In fact, since 1874, only 5 times has it snowed on Halloween, and 2 of those were the first 2 years on record (which dont TECHNICALLY count because Detroit snow data from 1874-79 has some M data so DTX doesnt start snowfall data til 1880). Only 1 time did Halloween have some snow on the ground.

 

Halloweens with snowfall

1874- T

1875- T

1917- T

1955- T

1993- 0.1"

 

Halloweens with snow on the ground

1925- T

 

5 coldest Halloweens for HIGH temp (there have been 6 times Halloween had highs in the 30s)

............HI....LO

1925- 34....24

1875- 35....31

1879- 37....26

1878- 38....30

1923- 38....27

 

5 coldest Halloweens for LOW temp

1988- 48....21

1917- 34....24

1879- 37....26

1968- 59....26

1975- 52....27

1976- 46....27

 

5 warmest Halloweens for HIGH temp (there have been 9 times Halloween had a high in the 70s)

1950- 79....56

1900- 74....59

2003- 73....53

1876- 72....57

1888- 72....42

1974- 72....60

 

So...only 5 times has it snowed on October 31st. However...it has snowed on Oct 19th 8 times, 20th 10 times, 21st 11 times, 23rd 8 times, 24th 7 times, 25th 6 times, 27th 14 times, 28th 11 times, 29th 10 times, and 30th 7 times...so we are due! (thanks xmacis lol).

 

Nice stats.

 

Buffalos stats for Halloween snowfall.

 

It has snowed on 12 Halloweens in Buffalo, going back to 1871. The most recent significant snow was in 1993, when 2.8″ fell officially after rain during the day.  Data shows measurable snow is still a relatively rare event on October 31. Of those 12 Halloweens with observed snow for Buffalo, only 6 have been more than a trace, and just 4 over 1″…and just 1 over 5″, in 1912 (6″). -
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I'm gonna have to dig into some of the known early LES cases to see what 850 mb temps were like...maybe it can serve as a guide.  I know that Nov 1996 had temps that were colder.

 

Another thing that hasn't been mentioned much is wind.  The mixed layer flow looks fairly unidirectional but it's howling on the GFS, which has a band of 50 kt 925 mb winds at 00z Sat before weakening.  It'll be interesting to see what kind of effect that has on overall organization, but it may mean very deep inland penetration.  If the GFS is right, there may be a window of 50-60 mph wind gusts near the lake.

We did a few LES forecasting exercises at the beginning of our research class last year. Unfortunately I don't remember the date (though I'm pretty sure it was much deeper into the season) but one of them had 40-50 kt 850 winds, and the result was a broader area of lake-effect snow than the tight band you normally get. Now in this case the mean wind was also probably more like 330, so it doesn't compare directly, but the strong 850-925 winds on Friday may also have the effect of broadening the band Friday night.

(I decided to bring this over from the general thread since we're discussing LES in here now.)

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We did a few LES forecasting exercises at the beginning of our research class last year. Unfortunately I don't remember the date (though I'm pretty sure it was much deeper into the season) but one of them had 40-50 kt 850 winds, and the result was a broader area of lake-effect snow than the tight band you normally get. Now in this case the mean wind was also probably more like 330, so it doesn't compare directly, but the strong 850-925 winds on Friday may also have the effect of broadening the band Friday night.

(I decided to bring this over from the general thread since we're discussing LES in here now.)

 

 

That makes sense.  Thanks.

 

It's going to be a headache trying to forecast precip type with this and I would not put a lot of stock in precip type progs.  Throw in the possibility of thunder and it adds more uncertainty.  If the models are correct with 925 mb temps dipping below freezing during the afternoon, then there will be the risk of snow mixing in or possibly even going to all wet snow in localized heavier bursts as early as then.  Then the issue is how well will surface temps respond.   

 

Edit:  GGEM goes ape with the lake precip.  Wow.  And it has the max far inland...like Newton county lol.  Looking at more for fun than anything although I do take the RGEM more seriously when it gets in range. 

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We did a few LES forecasting exercises at the beginning of our research class last year. Unfortunately I don't remember the date (though I'm pretty sure it was much deeper into the season) but one of them had 40-50 kt 850 winds, and the result was a broader area of lake-effect snow than the tight band you normally get. Now in this case the mean wind was also probably more like 330, so it doesn't compare directly, but the strong 850-925 winds on Friday may also have the effect of broadening the band Friday night.

(I decided to bring this over from the general thread since we're discussing LES in here now.)

Do you remember off the top of your head how much directional shear that event had? That could also contribute to the broadening of the band.

 

Regardless, it still looks like a marginal (but potentially interesting) situation downwind of Lake MI. For kicks, the NAM shows 925mb temps getting down below 0C around 0z Friday even in the lake effect band it tries depicting...although it takes until after 3z to get them down closer to -2C, which is probably what it would take to get good accums with the lack of "terrain" in NW IN unless a really strong band develops earlier. Instability numbers and equilibrium levels are essentially limitless in term of lake effect potential for the first few hours Friday evening before slowly coming down through the night...however, EL's don't look to become prohibitive for potentially accumulating snow in an organized band until close to sunrise Saturday. Things look pretty dry before that, but with all of Lake MI to work with I'd have to imagine that isn't as prohibitive as it is off of my small Great Lake. It's a short window of eye popping lake effect parameters in the evening when low level temps are iffier, followed by ok parameters for the rest of the night with better low level temps.

 

It would be nice if the winds weren't so strong Friday evening, as that would be the potential period to rack up some decent accums given the parameters if a good band can develop and compensate for the marginal looking low level temps. Any band that develops will probably slowly drift west later at night as the winds slowly veer. The instability numbers and 850mb temps Friday evening make me want to get excited for a decent early season LES event in parts of NW Indiana, but if the winds are too strong to get a good band that does work and dynamically cools the lower levels in the evening that may not happen, and then later at night when it's colder things gradually become more and more marginal for good lake effect snow due to lower inversions and increasing dry air, and perhaps a moving band.

 

It's still a few days out, so we'll see what the models say as we get closer. Prospects off of Lake Erie look lack luster now unless a pretty big shift east starts occurring soon, but it would be nice for someone to get a nice little bit of LES out of this somewhere.

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