Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 JonJon will be posting 1/4mi vis and 6" on the ground + drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Ahh, winter. Last week notwithstanding, Miller B's still usually suck for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm out until I'm back in again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 If this was Jan/Feb I would have that sinking feeling right now...gusts are down to 35mph on the euro as an added bonus. Stupid wind. Gotta wait until the shortwave is sampled. And take into consideration the model biases at this lead. There's plenty of time for favorable changes. The dgex and jma still show a storm. Does the sampeling argument have any science behind it or is that pure weenieness? I don't really remember any storm suddenly becoming clear once the energy came onto the pac nw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Does the sampeling argument have any science behind it or is that pure weenieness? I don't really remember any storm suddenly becoming clear once the energy came onto the pac nw... I would think it is based on the simple proposition that as you get closer in time, the forecast improves because the models are no longer reaching a solution based on assumptions of the atmos but facts and current conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This reminds me a lot of the weekend before Christmas last year- temperature runs up to record highs, then the bottom falls out. Look, anything that reminds me of last winter is good. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Mr. Chill doesn't weenie like us mortals. I would imagine that the argument is better sampling closer to the event reduces the possibility of getting those wild long range solutions that so many of us latch onto. I used to weenie out like the worst offenders for years but I accidentally learned stuff over time that I wish I didn't. I was using the sampling weenieism in jest. It's always tossed out there in the winter when a shortwave hasn't hit the coast but ops are trending in the wrong direction. Satellite and plane/ship data does plenty good so it's not like there is some giant data hole anywhere. Most of it boils down to time/skill and as mitch just said, the closer in the less chance for errors in initial conditions and zillions of variables that happen over time. Models have amazing skill regardless even though they get bashed a lot. Numerical models are far away from near perfect accuracy. Especially when dealing with complicated interactions like what we have on tap. A parked SE ridge is one thing. Fast moving and very amplified pattern with tight spacing and phase interaction is like a math problem that really can't be solved. Even as it's happening there are things that won't go exactly as planned. We see it all the time. We're right at the edge of op models "decent" skill imo. Ensembles are still very useful. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 All the maps aren't out yet but 12z euro ens is west of the op on the means and closes off the h5 contour as far south as the va/nc border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 All the maps aren't out yet but 12z euro ens is west of the op on the means and closes off the h5 contour as far south as the va/nc border. Could be worse, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I have the privilege of being the first this season to say - the 18z 84hr NAM looks very interesting...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I have the privilege of being the first this season to say - the 18z 84hr NAM looks very interesting...! All this weenie talk is making me tear up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I took a closer look at the euro ens run. Eh, not really much improvement here. Seems like models are converging on the same general idea. The offshore low looks to be too far east as h5 closes and phases with the energy rotating down. The best strengthening looks to happen too late and ne of us to get in on the goods. Ens mslp maps are pretty consistent with only a weak surface low sliding underneath us but joining a big party off the coast of NJ. I would hedge that heavy precip mostly skips us but eastern NE may end up with quite a storm. Not sure about snow but another round of high winds and heavy rain seems to be becoming more likely up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I have the privilege of being the first this season to say - the 18z 84hr NAM looks very interesting...! Which category? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Nam talk should be insta-banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Nam talk should be insta-banned NAM! NAM! NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 GFS closed off at 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Close. Very, very close. Took a nice jog west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Close. Very, very close. Took a nice jog west. Not really. It's pretty similar to everything else showing the best stuff happening too late. Unless the trough can go negative south of us I'm kinda writing off anything memorable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Not really. It's pretty similar to everything else showing the best stuff happening too late. Unless the trough can go negative south of us I'm kinda writing off anything memorable here. The 18z GFS pretty much ditched the freeze lol. Maybe it'll come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I don't think ill see anything frozen here in sparrows point md, but u all north of mason Dixon line will definitely see something frozen. ill be a lil too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Unlike some here I hate warm Novembers. Sweating and wearing a t-shirt and shorts in your kitchen as you put the turkey in the oven sucks. I like it cold by Thanksgiving. Until then I don't mind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Precip doesn't even look that impressive for the immediate area. What's all the fuss over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 P009.... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 FWIW, this is part of the WPC Long-Term Discussion. They seem to consider the chance for some snow somewhere in our area during the tale end of the "event". THERE IS SOME THREAT OF CLOSING AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC BUT REGARDLESS ACTS TO SOLIDIFY AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL THEN COASTAL SYSTEM WITH WRAPPING PCPN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WITH FREEZING TEMPS POTENTIAL ALSO TRAILING DOWN THROUGH THE SRN/SERN US. THERE IS A REAL RISK OF HEAVIER SNOWS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM OFF THE LAKES INTO ESPECIALLY THE APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS/TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. Full link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 thru 72 hrs, it looks like NAM will be further S this run than 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 thru 72 hrs, it looks like NAM will be further S this run than 18Z Duluth to Savannah is an interesting H5 track. The Sref mean has it on the VA NC border which seems a bit more climatological reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Duluth to Savannah is an interesting H5 track. The Sref mean has it on the VA NC border which seems a bit more climatological reasonable. didn't mean to suggest it was going to be right, just further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 didn't mean to suggest it was going to be right, just further south Well it's the Nam 84, I would never accuse anyone of calling it right, accept maybe Blizz. Just commenting on how odd the setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Gfs time? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Prob too late for anything for us... but the 00z GGEM looks mildly interesting from 90-102 based off of h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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