forkyfork Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 meanwhile, last night's euro lost the widespread 1" amounts for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 GFS has been showing a storm around mid month out to sea. I wonder if we will see a storm once the cold relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 GFS has been showing a storm around mid month out to sea. I wonder if we will see a storm once the cold relaxes. If we do it wont be snow, inland areas stand by far the best chance. We may get tainted but thats it IMO. Unless its a super wound up LP over the benchmark dont see us getting snow just yet anthony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 If we do it wont be snow, inland areas stand by far the best chance. We may get tainted but thats it IMO. Unless its a super wound up LP over the benchmark dont see us getting snow just yet anthony It will certainly be cold enough for snow but not expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Well these past two days will wipe out those early negatives but we should get more negatives later this week. The large cold spell is legit but I doubt it locks in so we will likely moderate afterwards. I'm only going for a -1 this month because I can't underestimate those warmer days. We've seen how much warmer October was then expected. Also one should not expect much snow this month even with overall below average temps. Its kind of like seeing snow late March early April that although possible it's unlikely. I do think we will see some flakes fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Generally speaking -4C to -6C departures in early to mid-November aren't going to cut it for snow in these parts and as someone else has said, an early intrusion of arctic air would likely supress the storm track to the south and then southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Oh no, not below 30 degrees, will they survive? In all seriousness, the GEFS continue to show a general below normal pattern for at least the next 2+ weeks with the core of the cold centered over the lakes before moderating some and eventually sliding eastward. The coldest time period still looks to be focused around day 10 with -4C to -6C departures. The main story this month could turn out to be the first three below normal temperature Novembers in a row for NYC since 95-97. Below normal Novembers have been a novelty here in an otherwise sea of warm for the 2000's so far. There have been 6 Novembers at 50 degrees or greater for average temperature at NYC since 99. The last record daily low temperature in November for NYC was way back in 1976. Nov 2014.....? Nov 2013...-2.4 Nov 2012...-3.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 meanwhile, last night's euro lost the widespread 1" amounts for tomorrow 12z Euro has a widespread .50"-.75" for NJ/NYC and .75"+ for Suffolk County, LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 a few runs ago it had double that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Beautiful set-up on the 12z euro for a early season winter storm across the nation…split flow, -EPO,+PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Beautiful set-up on the 12z euro for a early season winter storm across the nation…split flow, -EPO,+PNA Too bad we dont have this in december when it would benefit us. unless we have a bombing coastal with a decent arctic source nearby coastal areas will have to wait for notable snowfall IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Too bad we dont have this in december when it would benefit us. unless we have a bombing coastal with a decent arctic source nearby coastal areas will have to wait for notable snowfall IMO Who said we won't have this in December? Frankly whatever happens in November is meaningless but Its good to see this pattern set up. The fact that the AO average -1.0 for October supports some analogs like 2002-2003 and 2009-2010. So far I think the trends are in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 a few runs ago it had double that Yup, the monday 12z Euro showed over 2 inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Impressive to see 12z Euro drop 510 Arctic thickness values to Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Who said we won't have this in December? Frankly whatever happens in November is meaningless but Its good to see this pattern set up. The fact that the AO average -1.0 for October supports some analogs like 2002-2003 and 2009-2010. So far I think the trends are in our favor. Sorry i meant i wished it were december with the pattern and we'd be talking snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Just as I suspected the 18z GFS run showed a nice decent cold nor'easter around November 14-15th timeframe. It's a beautiful thing and it shows all snow. Obviously this is fantasy land but it's good to see it show up take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Just as I suspected the 18z GFS run showed a nice decent cold nor'easter around November 14-15th timeframe. It's a beautiful thing and it shows all snow. Obviously this is fantasy land but it's good to see it show up take a look Tis the season to be posting GFS/EURO runs of a 200+ snow threat . Weenies are coming out to graze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Just as I suspected the 18z GFS run showed a nice decent cold nor'easter around November 14-15th timeframe. It's a beautiful thing and it shows all snow. Obviously this is fantasy land but it's good to see it show up take a look Now just hold that look and I win with Nov 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Tis the season to be posting GFS/EURO runs of a 200+ snow threat . Weenies are coming out to grazelol it's a start. I am a proud weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Now just hold that look and I win with Nov 15thPaul I hope your right, even though I thought we'd get a snowstorm late November into early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Now just hold that look and I win with Nov 15th me and you both. we will both be happy since I DID TOO pick Nov. 15th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Paul I hope your right, even though I thought we'd get a snowstorm late November into early December. That image you posted, I think it has the precip messed up cause I am checking my paid site and it doesn't even have precip into the i-95 cities. Honestly, it doesn't matter cause its not going to be there next run most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 That image you posted, I think it has the precip messed up cause I am checking my paid site and it doesn't even have precip into the i-95 cities. Honestly, it doesn't matter cause its not going to be there next run most likely. well I checked 2 sites and they both have us on the snowy side but like you said it might not be there on the next run but it's definitely a start... Great to see you again hurricane tracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 well I checked 2 sites and they both have us on the snowy side but like you said it might not be there on the next run but it's definitely a start... Great to see you again hurricane tracker That's interesting cause tropicaltidbits/wxbell has no snow accum..anyways, it doesn't matter once again. Winter will get rolling after the first week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 me and you both. we will both be happy since I DID TOO pick Nov. 15th! Dec 5th. Every winter since 2002 with snow on Dec 5th has resulted in Above avg to epic winters since 2002.2002, 2003, 2005 and 2009 all were at or above 40" winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Dec 5th. Every winter since 2002 with snow on Dec 5th has resulted in Above avg to epic winters since 2002. 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2009 all were at or above 40" winters. Yeah there is something about that date. I went with the 6th because it tends to often happen on a Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah there is something about that date. I went with the 6th because it tends to often happen on a Saturday Weekend rule, good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 when I was growing up the first snowfall seemed to come around December 10th...four straight years starting in 1960 had it's first inch of snow around that date... 12/11-12/1960...15.3" 12/09-10/1961.....1.1" 12/09/1962.........1.1" 12/12/1963.........2.3" 1992 and 1993 had their first snowfall around the 12th...last years was December 8th and 10th... The dates going forward with the most snowfalls are... 11/24...4 storms 2" or more... 11/27...5 storms 1" or more... 11/30...5 storms 2" or more... 12/05...5 storms 4" or more...three 8" or more... 12/19...5 storms 4" or more...four 8"...one 16"... 12/26...5 storms 7" or more...four 11" or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 It would be really cool for a T-day snow event. I don't recall us ever having one going back to the late 1980s at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 It would be really cool for a T-day snow event. I don't recall us ever having one going back to the late 1980s at least. If there was one year to do it this one seems to be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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