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November 2014


Rtd208

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GFS has been showing a storm around mid month out to sea. I wonder if we will see a storm once the cold relaxes.

If we do it wont be snow, inland areas stand by far the best chance. We may get tainted but thats it IMO. Unless its a super wound up LP over the benchmark dont see us getting snow just yet anthony

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Well these past two days will wipe out those early negatives but we should get more negatives later this week.

The large cold spell is legit but I doubt it locks in so we will likely moderate afterwards. I'm only going for a -1 this month because I can't underestimate those warmer days. We've seen how much warmer October was then expected.

Also one should not expect much snow this month even with overall below average temps. Its kind of like seeing snow late March early April that although possible it's unlikely. I do think we will see some flakes fall.

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Oh no, not below 30 degrees, will they survive? :violin:

 

In all seriousness, the GEFS continue to show a general below normal pattern for at least the next 2+ weeks with the core of the cold centered over the lakes before moderating some and eventually sliding eastward. The coldest time period still looks to be focused around day 10 with -4C to -6C departures.

 

The main story this month could turn out to be the first three below normal temperature Novembers in a row

for NYC since 95-97. Below normal Novembers have been a novelty here in an otherwise sea of warm for the

2000's so far. There have been 6 Novembers at 50 degrees or greater for average temperature at NYC since 99.

The last record daily low temperature in November for NYC was way back in 1976.

 

Nov 2014.....?

Nov 2013...-2.4

Nov 2012...-3.6

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Beautiful set-up on the 12z euro for a early season winter storm across the nation…split flow, -EPO,+PNA

Too bad we dont have this in december when it would benefit us. unless we have a bombing coastal with a decent arctic source nearby coastal areas will have to wait for notable snowfall IMO

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Too bad we dont have this in december when it would benefit us. unless we have a bombing coastal with a decent arctic source nearby coastal areas will have to wait for notable snowfall IMO

Who said we won't have this in December? Frankly whatever happens in November is meaningless but Its good to see this pattern set up. The fact that the AO average -1.0 for October supports some analogs like 2002-2003 and 2009-2010. So far I think the trends are in our favor.

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Who said we won't have this in December? Frankly whatever happens in November is meaningless but Its good to see this pattern set up. The fact that the AO average -1.0 for October supports some analogs like 2002-2003 and 2009-2010. So far I think the trends are in our favor.

Sorry i meant i wished it were december with the pattern and we'd be talking snow

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Just as I suspected the 18z GFS run showed a nice decent cold nor'easter around November 14-15th timeframe. It's a beautiful thing and it shows all snow. Obviously this is fantasy land but it's good to see it show up take a lookc298158f7d99d05633cf84798ad41929.jpg

Tis the season to be posting GFS/EURO runs of a 200+ snow threat :lol:. Weenies are coming out to graze

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Just as I suspected the 18z GFS run showed a nice decent cold nor'easter around November 14-15th timeframe. It's a beautiful thing and it shows all snow. Obviously this is fantasy land but it's good to see it show up take a lookc298158f7d99d05633cf84798ad41929.jpg

Now just hold that look and I win with Nov 15th

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Paul I hope your right, even though I thought we'd get a snowstorm late November into early December.

That image you posted, I think it has the precip messed up cause I am checking my paid site and it doesn't even have precip into the i-95 cities. Honestly, it doesn't matter cause its not going to be there next run most likely.

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That image you posted, I think it has the precip messed up cause I am checking my paid site and it doesn't even have precip into the i-95 cities. Honestly, it doesn't matter cause its not going to be there next run most likely.

well I checked 2 sites and they both have us on the snowy side but like you said it might not be there on the next run but it's definitely a start... Great to see you again hurricane tracker
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well I checked 2 sites and they both have us on the snowy side but like you said it might not be there on the next run but it's definitely a start... Great to see you again hurricane tracker

That's interesting cause tropicaltidbits/wxbell has no snow accum..anyways, it doesn't matter once again. Winter will get rolling after the first week of Dec.

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when I was growing up the first snowfall seemed to come around December 10th...four straight years starting in 1960 had it's first inch of snow around that date...

12/11-12/1960...15.3"

12/09-10/1961.....1.1"

12/09/1962.........1.1"

12/12/1963.........2.3"

1992 and 1993 had their first snowfall around the 12th...last years was December 8th and 10th...

The dates going forward with the most snowfalls are...

11/24...4 storms 2" or more...

11/27...5 storms 1" or more...

11/30...5 storms 2" or more...

12/05...5 storms 4" or more...three 8" or more...

12/19...5 storms 4" or more...four 8"...one 16"...

12/26...5 storms 7" or more...four 11" or more...

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